Alaska s Forest Industry: Timber Harvest and Recent Trends Erik Berg Todd Morgan Charles Keegan Bureau of Business & Economic Research University of Montana PNW-FIA 2013 Client Meeting May 15, 2013
What is Timber Products Output (TPO)? Part of FIA that provides information on wood use Accomplished with: Mill surveys Logging utilization studies Firewood and other studies Plot data
Why is TPO important? Timber products and logging residues are components of change. Accurate accounting of total removals and wood utilization relies on TPO data from mill and field studies. TPO information is not duplicated within FIA. Removals for timber products are only partially captured by plot data. Info on timber processors, logging residue, and mill residue are not captured at all by plot data.
TPO in the West BBER = Bureau of Business & Economic Research Complete census of timber processors Logging utilization studies Data, analysis, & publications Timber Harvest and Industry Reports Alaska 2005, 2011 California, Idaho 2000, 2006, 2011 Nevada, Wyoming 2005, 2010 Montana 2004, 2009 Oregon 2003, 2008 Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah 2002, 2007, 2012
Forest Industry Analysis Western States Describe industry structure, capacity, condition, and changes Track wood fiber from forest to marketplace Associate key economic indicators
(from Keegan et al. 2012) Background for the 2011 Alaska census: the Great Recession 30 3.0 25 2.5 Billion board feet 20 15 10 Western states harvest (Scribner log scale) 2.0 1.5 1.0 Home starts (millions) - 5 Western states lumber production (Lumber Tally) U.S. New privately owned housing units started (right axis) 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 0.5 0.0
2011 Alaska Forest Industry Census (not a sample!) Primary Production, not secondary! Mill type, capacity, equipment, employment Timber harvest volume, use, species, county, & ownership Mill residue & wood fiber use Product volume, sales, & geographic distribution
Alaska s timber harvest by ownership 1,200 Total 1,000 National forests Timber Harvested (MMBF) 800 600 400 State and other public Tribal and private 200 0 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 Calendar Year (Data from Zhou and Warren 2012) 1996 2001 2006 2011
Alaska active timber processing mills
Far North Interior South-central & Western Southeast Number of active timber processing mills by resource area Number of Facilities 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Southeast South-central & Western Resource Area Interior 2005 2011-37 mills were inactive in 2011. - 12 active mills closed between 2005 and 2011. - 17 active mills were mothballed (inactive).
MMBF 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Timber volume received by primary mills by resource area 2005 2011 Southeast South-central & Western Interior Resource Area
Timber volume received by primary Alaskan facilities, by ownership origin (log export facilities not included) 25 20 MMBF 15 10 5 2005 2011 0 Private & tribal National Forest Ownership Class State & other public
50 40 MMBF 30 20 10 0 Southeast South-central & Western Interior 2005 2011 Alaskan 2011 lumber & sawn products production by resource area Resource Area 400 Thousand Lineal Feet 300 200 100 0 Southeast South-central & Western Interior 2005 2011 Alaskan 2011 house log production by resource area Resource Area
Wood for energy: 2011 mill residues (in BDUs) used for energy by resource area - In 2011 27% of mill coarse residues were used for fuel, compared to 11% in 2005. - In 2011 firewood sales made up 15% of all AK wood product sales.
Sawmill production by capacity size class 2005 2011 Total 2005 production = 54.8 MMBF lumber tally Total 2011 production = 20.9 MMBF lumber tally Note: In 2005 Alaskan mills operated at 21.4 % of total capacity, compared to 15 % in 2011.
Destinations of Alaska's primary wood products & residue: % sales value (2011 $) 2005 2011 Canada Other 0.9% States 3.0% West Coast 59.4% Other Countries 0.3% Alaska 36.5% Other States 5.5% West Coast 17.4% Canada 2.3% Alaska 74.8%
2002-2011 Alaska log exports 350 600 300 500 MMBF Scribner 250 200 150 100 400 300 200 Dollars per MBF Volume Average Value 50 100 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year 0 (Source: S. Alexander 2012)
Primary employment - Alaska's forest products industry 1969-2011 (U.S. Department of Commerce 2012; S. Alexander 2012; BBER estimated data) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 Forestry, logging, and wood products Pulp Total 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Number of Workers 2009 2011 Note: Total Alaska active mill FTE employment from 2011 census = 150.
In Summary: 2005 vs. 2011 Total number of active facilities changed little, but many were mothballed or closed completely. Timber volume received and lumber and houselog production declined +/- 50%. Wood for fuel: Large increases in Interior demand and sales. Mill capacity utilization: Down to 15% in 2011! Potential for substantial increases in production. Log Exports: Large increases- huge ramp-up in Asian demand, particularly for lower quality logs.
Special thanks: Micah Scudder, Chelsea McIver, Colin Sorensen- BBER Susan Alexander, USDA FS PNW Research Station Dan Parrent, USDA FS State and Private Forestry Allen Brackley, USDA FS PNW Research Station Glenn Christensen, USDA FS PNW FIA Juneau Economic Development Council Alaska Dept. of Nat. Resources Division of Forestry- many indiv Internet: www.bber.umt.edu Email: Erik.Berg@business.umt.edu Phone: (406) 243-4045