Modeling Committee Update OTC Committee Meeting April 11, 2017 Washington, DC 1
Overview 1. Monitored Results 2. Ozone NAAQS Schedule 3. Enhanced Monitoring Plan (EMP) 4. OTC 2011 Modeling Platform a) Recent Modeling b) Emission Inventory c) Planned Modeling 5. EPA Ozone Contribution Modeling 2
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P Concentration (ppb) 1. Ozone Trends in OTR 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 204 172 166 139 143 144 150 142 123 OTR Trendline 120 4 th Maximum 8-Hour Ozone in the OTR 126 130 122 115 117 113 114 112 116 110 102 104 102 108 111 101 90 101 93 Before the 8-Hour NAAQS 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS 96 98 92 90 87 87 83 81 Year 3
# Days 1. Trends for OTR Exceedance Days 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 # Days > 84 # Days > 75 # Days > 70 Linear (# Days > 70) 128 122 110 110 104 104 95 87 89 85 83 78 78 75 63 59 57 44 39 36 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P Year 4
1. 2016 4 th High 8h Ozone Value (Preliminary) 5
1. 2014-16 8h Ozone Preliminary Design Value 6
1. 2014-16 8hr Ozone Preliminary Design Value 7
2. Ozone NAAQS Planning Timeline October 2015 Final 2015 NAAQS December 2015 Effective Date for 2015 NAAQS October 2016 Submit 2015 NAAQS Nonattainment Designation Recommendations (2013-15) January 1, 2017 NYC & Greater CT 2008 Ozone Demonstration Due October 2017 EPA Nonattainment Area Designations for 2015 NAAQS October 2018 Infrastructure/Transport SIP for 2015 NAAQS Due October 2020 2015 Ozone Nonattainment SIPs Due Attainment by (October): 2020 - Marginal 2023 - Moderate 2026 - Serious 8
3. Enhanced Monitoring Plans (EMP) Requires states with moderate or above ozone NAA & OTR states to submit an EMP as part of 2015 Ozone NAAQS process Plans due to EPA on 10/1/2019, or 2 years after moderate or above designation Effort underway to coordinate between states & EPA through OTC workgroup Gain regional benefits from plans More knowledge on transport More knowledge of air/sea affect on ozone Information to improve model performance Will be future updates at OTC meetings and opportunity for comment 9
4. Recent OTC Modeling 2017 Base Case 2017 Near water RRF adjustments 2017 Comparison between photochemical models 10
4. OTC 2017 Base Case Modeling Results 2017 MARAMA Beta Emissions 11
4. Land-Water Interface Monitors Modeled Results at Monitors near water: Model performance indicates risk of substantial overprediction Monitors can become rigid to control don t respond Following EPA Guidance, grid cells over water are included in calculations for coastal monitors Ozone tends to model higher over water so this can distort the results Modeling Committee has developed a different approach that reduces this effect Removes over water model grid cells from the 9-grid cell calculation 12
4. 2017 SIP Ready Base Case Modeling Results EPA Guidance No Water Method 13
4. CMAQ v5.0.2 Vs. CAMx v6.40 Models compare CMAQ v5.0.2 favorably CAMx with 6.40a good correlation CMAQ tends to predict higher ozone in the OTR When RRF is processed, results are similar CAMx runs about 4-5 times faster on the OTC modeling domain Met Inputs MCIP wrfcamx Emissions SMOKE (CB5) cmaq2camx (CB5) IC/BC Geos_Chem cmaq2camx PBL Scheme ACM2 YSU Kz fix KzMIN kvpatch Chemistry CB5 CB5/CB6r2 Run Time 45 min/day 10/12 min/day CAMx 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 CMAQ cb5 - CAMx cb5 CMAQ cb5 - CAMx cb6r2 R 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 CMAQ
4. CMAQ Vs. CAMx AQS Code Site DVC 2011 CMAQ DVF 2017 beta2 CAMx DVF 2017 CB5 beta2 kvpatch EPA CAMx DVF 2017 Ek 090019003 CT Sherwood Island Westport 83.7 83 78 76 240251001 MD Edgewood 90.0 81 81 78 360850067 NY SUSAN WAGNER HS 81.3 78 76 75 090010017 CT Greenwich Point Greenwich 80.3 77 74 74 090013007 CT Lighthouse-Stratford 84.3 77 76 75 090099002 CT Hammonasset Madison 85.7 77 77 76 361030002 NY BABYLON 83.3 77 77 76 090011123 CT Western Conn State Univ-Danbury 81.3 74 73 71 240053001 MD Essex 80.7 74 73 71 340150002 NJ Clarksboro 84.3 74 74 72 360810124 NY QUEENS COLLEGE 2 78.0 74 74 73 090110124 CT Fort Griswold Park-Groton 80.3 73 72 70 240090011 MD Calvert 79.7 73 71 69 240150003 MD Fair Hill 83.0 73 73 69
4. CMAQ v5.0.2 Vs. CAMx v6.40 160 140 90010017 - CMAQ CB5 160 140 240251001 - CMAQ CB5 Obs 8Hr CMAQ 8Hr 9-Grid 8HMX 2011 9-Grid 8HMX 2017 Ozone Conc (ppb) 120 100 80 60 Obs 8Hr CMAQ 8Hr 9-Grid 8HMX 2011 9-Grid 8HMX 2017 Ozone Conc (ppb) 120 100 80 60 40 40 20 20 Greenwich, CT 160 140 120 0 608 711 722 706 606 609 716 820 726 721 Date 90010017 - CAMx CB5 Obs 8Hr CAMx 8Hr 9-Grid 8HMX 2011 9-Grid 8HMX 2017 0 609 608 722 531 721 601 729 719 723 707 Date Edgewood, MD 160 140 120 240251001 - CAMx CB5 Obs 8Hr CAMx 8Hr 9-Grid 8HMX 2011 9-Grid 8HMX 2017 Ozone Conc (ppb) 100 80 60 Ozone Conc (ppb) 100 80 60 40 40 20 20 0 608 609 722 711 721 706 820 718 801 705 Date 0 608 609 722 721 707 729 723 531 607 601 Date
4. CMAQ v5.0.2 Vs. CAMx v6.40 Summary Over OTR (including VA) ozone monitors, CMAQ & CAMx had similar performance, with CAMx a little bit better than CMAQ in terms of NMB, NME & R. CMAQ & CAMx yielded similar 2017 DVF, but CAMx had lower DVF over CT monitors near coast.
4. Near-Term OTC/MARAMA Emission Inventories Alpha 2011 2018 2028 Beta 2011 2017 Gamma 2011 2020 2023 Gamma Inventory Improvements are Beginning Project future year to 2023 & 2020 Upgrade to ERTAC v2.6 2023 Mobile: EPA MOVES & Nonroad 2020 Mobile: 2017 2023 Interpolation Remove rules no longer considered OTB EMF Growth for point & maybe area For 2020 some sectors interpolated Other updates for 2011/2023 from EPA v6.3 18
4. Gamma Inventory Photochemical Modeling Plan Beta Modeling Complete & Documented 2011 Gamma Emission Inventory Base Case To ensure consistent inventories and update chemistry 2023 Gamma Emission Inventory Base Case For use in transport modeling 2020 Gamma Emission Inventory Base Case For use in Serious 2008 NAAQS Ozone SIPs Update Documentation 19
4. Current OTC 2020/2023 Modeling Modeling intended to provide early direction & SIP support 2020 interpolated projection (2008 NAAQS Serious Nonattainment) Interpolation between Beta 2017 & EPA 2023 inventories IPM data to be replaced with ERTAC for EGUs CSAPR-U Cap estimated adjustment factor 2023 projection (2015 NAAQS Moderate Nonattainment) EPA 2023 inventory IPM data to be replaced with ERTAC for EGUs Non-EGU point to have adjustment factors applied CSAPR-U Cap estimated adjustment factor 20
5. EPA Contribution Modeling Considers all monitors currently exceeding: 1. The 2015 ozone NAAQS 2. The 2008 Ozone NAAQS EPA ozone contribution modeling with: 1. 2017 emission inventories 2. 2023 emission inventories Highlighted states contribute 1% or more of the applicable NAAQS Answers the questions: 1. What states contribute to current nonattainment 2. What states will still contribute 1% or more should monitors currently in nonattainment not reach attainment by 2023 21
5. 2008 Ozone NAAQS: 75ppb - 1% Contributing States Connecticut Maryland New York Pennsylvania Contributors with 2017 Emissions Contributors with 2023 Emissions Data Source: USEPA Contribution Modeling 22
5. 2015 Ozone NAAQS: 70ppb - 1% Contributing States Pennsylvania Connecticut New Jersey Contributors with 2017 Emissions Contributors with 2023 Emissions Data Source: USEPA Contribution Modeling 23
5. 2015 Ozone NAAQS: 70ppb - 1% Contributing States New York Maryland Virginia Contributors with 2017 Emissions Contributors with 2023 Emissions Data Source: USEPA Contribution Modeling 24
OTC modeling indicates that: Conclusions & Next Steps CMAQ performs reasonably well when modeled values for monitor grid cells are compared to monitored data CMAQ & CAMx perform comparably Ozone exceedances in OTR in 2016 ozone season similar to 2015 Enhanced Monitoring Plans (EMPs) being discussed Emissions inventory projections to 2020 & 2023 being prepared for transport & attainment SIP Initial modeling will be performed with an interpolated inventory Improved Gamma emission inventories to be available during summer/fall 2017 25
Questions Committee Chair: Jeff Underhill (NH) jeffrey.underhill@des.nh.gov (603) 271-1102 Modeling Lead: Mike Ku (NY) michael.ku@dec.ny.gov (518) 402-8402 Emissions Inventory Lead: Julie McDill (MARAMA) jmcdill@marama.org (443) 901-1882 OTC Committee Lead: Joseph Jakuta jjakuta@otcair.org (202) 508-3839 26