NBI Role in Facing Energy Security Challenges in the Nile Basin

NBI Role in Facing Energy Security Challenges in the Nile Basin Wael Khairy, Ph.D. Wael Khairy, Ph.D. Executive Director Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat Entebbe, Uganda Mekong 2 Rio+20 Int l l Conference On transboundary river basin management Phuket, Thailand (1-3) May 2012 Our Shared Vision: To achieve sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile basin water resources

Contents Main Features of the River Nile Key Nile Basin Challenges Focus on Power Sector Nile Basin Opportunities NBI Progress (1999 2012) NBI Power Agenda Focus Areas: Technical Assistance Regional Dialogue Infrastructure Power Development Regional Studies & Research in Power Sector Challenges toward achieving Energy Security Lessons and Experiences Learnt from NBI The Nexus Perspectives in the Case of NBI Our Shared Vision: To achieve sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile basin water resources 2

276 INTERNATIONAL RIVER BASINS River Nile Basin at negotiation Longstanding, Growing Demand, Regional Cooperation, On-going-Investments 3

Burundi DRC Eretria Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda The Sudan South Sudan Tanzania Uganda Main Nile White Nile D.R. Bahr Ghazal Rwanda S. Sudan Atbara Eretria Blue Nile Equatorial Lakes 4

The Nile Basin The Nile Basin Africa s largest river basin by area Area: 3.25 Million Km 2 (10% Africa) Length: 6,695 Km Main Tributaries: White Nile & Blue Nile Population: 232 Million (within NB) High Spatial Variability; nearly half semi arid and arid Water scarce; large parts do not generate runoff; low runoff coefficient in parts generating runoff; High seasonal variability in Blue Nile Mean annual discharge 84 BCM (17% Congo; 1.5% of Amazon) 5

Water Sources of the Nile River Rainfall 1661 BCM/year Surface Flow (at Aswan ) 84 BCM/year Losses 94.94 % Sudd /Swamps 544 billion/yr 0.0% Ethiopian Plateau 85% Equatorial Lakes Plateau 15% 6

Extreme Poverty Instability Rapid Population Growth Environmental degradation Natural disasters (Floods, Droughts,.etc) Complicated hydrology of Basin Lack of management Low land productivity Climate Change 7

Existing facilities account for 26% of potential capacity Main schemes are Aswan, Merowe, Tekeze, Roseires, Tis Bay, Tana- Beles, Jebej Aulia, and Owen Falls 8

Hydropower Potential in the Nile Basin Country Burundi 89 D R Congo 99 Egypt 12 Ethiopia 95 Eritrea 0 Kenya 50 Rwanda 33 Sudan 49 Tanzania 47 Uganda 85 HEP as % of Inst. capacity * Source: Opportunities for Power Trade in the Nile Basin, Final Report, NBI,2012 9

Extract from the NBI s River Nile State of the Basin Report, 2012 Congo river drops some 96m over a stretch of 15km The Grand Inga Hydropower station will have a total capacity of 39,000 MW

Power Status - Nile Region ~7.0 Million sq km Over 424 million people Regional average power demand, growth rate close to 7.5% p.a (11% for upstream countries) Average access to electricity less 20%, excluding Egypt >99% Hydropower potential in excess of 150GW less than 5% is exploited and more than 50% is only known at inventory level few detailed studies Other energy resources: geothermal, oil, gas & wind 11

Extract from the NBI s River Nile State of the Basin Report, 2012 12

Severe power supply uncertainties, increasing power demand, and inability to raise adequate capital for projects. Reliance of expensive emergency power (at >US$12cts/kWh) frustrates socioeconomic development efforts; most potential sites identified has <US$3 cts/kwh in generation cost. Lack of cumulative-impact monitoring and management serious environmental degradation. Lack of facilities for technology transfer and sustaining capacity building. Weak isolated power networks Weak intra-country transmission system limiting benefits of electricity wheeling and may contribute to frequent cascade interruptions if informed decisions are not taken before grid integration. 13

The Nile Basin Initiative Shared Vision: To achieve sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile basin water resources 14

1999 A New Era for the Nile Basin Countries The Nile Basin Initiative Shared Vision 13 Shared Vision Program yrs To realize Subsidiary Action Program Action on the ground Shared Vision: to achieve sustainable socio economic development through equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile Basin water resources. 15

OUR LIFE NBI Stages of Evolution ESTABLISHMENT and CONFIDENCE BUILDING INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING CONSOLIDATION and DELIVERING 1999 2008 2012 2016 NBI is entering a third phase in its evolution USD 312 Million (1999 2012) Delivering Phase USD 1.2 Billion Nile Basin Countries have started to realize real benefits from NBI s investment projects NBI proved that it achieved significant results and values for money 16

NBI Business Our Core Functions: Facilitating Cooperation Program BVI is a unique platform for dialogue Nurture cooperation Convenes the Nile Governance meetings Water Resource Management Program Provides its MS with analytic tools, shared knowledge bases, information systems Capable of monitoring and sustainably managing the basin s water resources. Water Resource Development Program Assists its MS to identify development opportunities, prepare projects, & seek investments. Development programs 3 priorities : 1) power trade and generation, 2) agriculture, and 3) river basin and watershed management. www.nilebasin.org Corporate Management Functions 17

NBI SAPs: Portfolio of Projects (EN-SAP & NEL-SAP) Three Key Sectors Power River Basin Management Till end of 2011: $950 M for investment projects in the Nile Basin utilizing $150 M in pre investment financing (NBTF & Bi lat) NBI numerous investments turning $1 into $10 Agriculture (1:10) 18

Overview of NBI Investment Financing Water Resource Development Programs Mill US $ 4,000.00 3,500.00 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 Total ENSAP & NELSAP Pre-investment and Investment Financing as at June, 2011 Establishment and Confidence Building Institutional Strengthening Consolidation and Delivering Projected 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 Actual 0.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Years Preinvestment Financing (actual & projected) Investment Financing (actual & projected) 19

The NBI Power Agenda: Focus Areas Technical Assistance - supporting a conducive environment of Power Trade and Market operations through Regional Capacity Building programs Promoting Regional Dialogue building trust & confidence for cooperation in power infrastructure development Facilitating Infrastructure Development - for power trade by promoting regional power investment projects/programs (complementing countries interests) and spearheading resource mobilization Regional Studies and Research undertaking resource identification and preparation of power options into feasible projects, and devising mitigation measures to address cumulative impacts.

Facilitating Infrastructure Development Despite significant challenges, the NBI has played a key role in advancing power integration in the region through its Subsidiary Action Programs. In the Eastern Nile Sub-region: Construction of Euro 55.8 Mill, 230 kv interconnector between Sudan and Ethiopia is completed Feasibility study of the estimated US$1.86 Mill Egypt Sudan Ethiopia interconnector is completed and currently under review. Mandaya site Beko Abo site Progress has been made on development studies for Mandaya, Border, Dal, & Beko Abo on the Blue Nile. Progress on JMP Stage 1 studies (SSEA) on going. The HV DC Link between Ethiopia and Kenya edges closure to realization.

In the NEL-SAP Sub-region: Interconnection of grids of six NEL Countries of Burundi, DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda is in progress (USD 400 Mill): o Regional Project Coordination Unit and project offices established o Works are in advanced stages o USD 365 Mill mobilized for the interconnectors. o Training, capacity building, & awareness ongoing Rusumo MHP Site Implementation structure for the Regional Rusumo Falls Multipurpose Project has been concluded and preparatory activities for the pre construction phase has begun (cost USD 450) The Kenya Tanzania interconnection feasibility study & ESIA is nearing completion. Extension to South Sudan is planned. Ruzizi III Site 145 MW Preparation for a number of new hydropower projects identified (NBI CBWS) resource mobilization.

Launching the Implementation of the Regional Rusumo Falls Multipurpose Project (Feb., 2012) The Ministers display the signed Tripartite Agreement - Hon William Ngeleja, Tanzania; Hon. Emma Francoise Isumbinagabo, Rwanda; and Hon Come Manirakiza, Burundi

The Comprehensive Basin-wide Study CBWS is (35 yrs span) to analyze electricity demand and supply balance at regional level taking all MS in their entirety, as well as non NBI MS form part of the Eastern Africa Region (e.g., Djibouti). The study provides an informative tool for identification and preparation of potential power projects from a portfolio of best options (evaluated: multi criteria techniques and risk analysis) The study has taken cognizance of the need to plan hydropower development in the context of multipurpose use of water resources to maximise benefits and minimise negative cumulative impacts. CBWS also proposed a robust transmission Back-bone to ensure adequacy and reliability of power supply as well as maximizing the inherent opportunities presented by the vast energy resource mix in the region.

Nile Basin Regional Power Interconnection by 2015 ERITREA SUDAN 260 260 MW ETHIOPIA 50 MW DJIBOUTI 1000 MW 156 MW 8 MW 115 MW UGANDA 166 MW KENYA 14 MW 150 MW 485 MW 25 MW DR CONGO TANZANIA

Nile Basin Regional Power Interconnection by 2025

Regional Power Development - Hydro Generation Options on-line 2000-2020 Planning Option Country MW Proposed Period Next Gibe III ET 1,170 Const Genale III ET 254 Const 2010-2015 C Yeda 1 & 2 ET 280 Const Geba 1 & 2 ET 372 Const Dinder SU 135 Const Bujagali UG 250 Const Sub-Total 2,461 Est Total Const Cost $M Est.Proj Prep Cost $M Ruzizi III BU/DRC/RW 145 T/C 350 0.5 Rusumo BU/RW/TZ 60 T/C 450 0.5 Ruzizi IV BU/DRC/RW 288 F/D 556 2.3 Semeliki DRC 72 F/D 60 1 Bebeba DRC 50 F/D 148 1 Bengamisa DRC 50 F/D 152 1 Miko DRC 54 F/D 158 1 2015-2020 Kisangani DRC 468 F/D 898 4.5 Busanga DRC 224 F/D 506 2.2 Wanie R DRC 688 F/D 1,950 6.9 Tekeze 2 ET 450 F/D 544 4.5 Halele W ET 326 T/C 386 0.5 High G. Fall KE 400 T/C 2,690 0.5 Bedden SSU 400 T/C 1,194 0.5 Ruhidji TZ 358 T/C 764 0.5 Karuma UG 600 T/C 2,320 0.5 Sub-Total 4,633 13,126 27.9 Note: Regional Demand in 2010 is 30,000MW rising to 44,000 MW by 2015 and 64,000MW by 2020 T/C = Tender & Construction ; F/D = Feasibility & Detailed Design; Const = Under Construction

Regional Interconnectors in Service 2010-2020 Interconnection between countries Capacity [MW] Distance [km] Voltage [kv] Technology Investments [Mill $US] Year in service Uganda - Kenya 300 254 220 AC 2014 NELSAP Ongoing Trans Projects ~USD 400M Uganda - Rwanda 300 172 220 AC 2014 Rwanda - DRC 400 68 220 AC 2014 Rwanda - Burundi 300 103 220 AC 2014 Tanzania - Kenya 1500 260 400 AC 210 2015 Ethiopia - Kenya 2000 1120 500 DC 1022 2015 Uganda - DR Congo 300 185 220 AC 56 2015 Total 1,668 Add 1,288 Ethiopia - Kenya 2000 1120 500 DC 1022 2020 Sudan - Egypt 2000 1665 600 DC 1358 2020 DRC - Burundi 300 105 220 AC 31 2020 Burundi - Rwanda 300 186 220 AC 56 2020 Uganda - Sudan 1000 200 400 AC 115 2020 Total 3,276 2,582

Challenges toward achieving Energy Security The huge resource gap exists between what s needed to realize and what can be mobilized through public debt. Must use untraditional resource mobilization mechanisms to raise the required capital in a short time. Trans-boundary projects on shared resources are complex and are governed by sophisticated contractual agreements; these projects also introduce new advanced technologies in the region need to continue building adequate human capacity & 1 st SPV. Need for stronger coordination and collaboration among countries to make a regional power market and cross-border exchanges feasible and beneficial to the Nile citizens develop a framework for joint implementation and exploitation of generation and transmission facilities.

Lessons & Experiences Learnt (1/3) NBI Role toward Energy Security in Nile Region NBI with its regional intergovernmental nature & political will plays a pivotal role in responding to its MS demands toward facing energy security challenges Despite significant challenges, NBI is capable for advancing power integration in the Nile Region A RBO like NBI which is designed with two implementing arms (SAPs) becomes more strong and efficient in planning, preparing, identifying, designing, facilitating, and supporting its MS to mobilize for implementing power development projects with regional value NBI with its programs targeting power systems conceptualization, implementation and marketing is greatly complementing power development efforts by its MS The four components of NBI Power Agenda : Technical Assistance, Promoting Regional Dialogue, Facilitating Infrastructure Development & Regional Studies and Research, are perfectly responding to the gaps and needs in the Nile Region

Lessons & Experiences Learnt (2/3) NBI Role toward Energy Security in Nile Region NBI has strong capacity and capability to facilitate and deliver large, complex, capital intensive trans-boundary power infrastructure projects NBI acts as an interface with other power regional entities EGL, EAC, EAPP, & RECs in Africa NBI considers a balance between power development targets and environmental & social considerations, while planning for power-schemes in the Nile Region NBI-CBWS provides an informative tool for identification and preparation of potential power projects and takes cognizance of the need to plan hydropower development in the context of multipurpose use of water resources to maximize benefits & minimize negative cumulative impacts

Lessons & Experiences Learnt (3/3) NBI Role toward Energy Security in Nile Region Power infrastructure development and establishment of a competitive electricity market are central to sustainable socioeconomic development and transformation of the Nile Region into a vibrant green economy. The consortium of NBI, its Development Partners, & other power development initiatives in the region, continues to provide the necessary leadership for regional power development. Finally; an accepted basin-wide power development strategy through NBI allows for greater efficiencies in the utilization of shared resources, and sustains regional dialogue and trust amongst Nile riparians and citizens.

Nexus Perspectives in the Case of NBI toward Water, Food, Energy Security in Nile Region Regional Active Dialogue Platform (transboundary dimension) Sustainable socioeconomic development (e.g., maintaining the overall sustainability in the shared basin: social, environmental, economic, ecosystem, biodiversity) Full actors engagements (Governments, Donors, Participating Institutions, Public, Private Sector, CSOs) Multi-purpose approach (Basin Master-planning) Resilient solutions (disasters) & viable interventions (WRW&D) Strengthening water, energy & food security nexus

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