PICES Annual Meeting, Jeju, R. Korea S5-MEQ Session, October 28, 2009 The impact of climate change on the development of marine aquaculture: a case study on Japanese scallop aquaculture in Funka Bay, Hokkaido, Japan I Nyoman Radiarta 1,2, Sei-Ichi Saitoh 1 and Toru Hirawake 1 1 Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, Japan 2 Research Center for Aquaculture, MMAF, Jakarta, Indonesia
Contents http://www.geomag.us/info/ocean/tide2.jpg Introduction Japanese scallop aquaculture Climate change prediction Methodology Original suitable site model CC prediction model Results and discussion Original suitable sites model CC prediction model Conclusion
Japanese scallop culture 30 species of scallop harvested in the world and 20 species are cultured (Bourne, 2000) Japanese scallop is the dominant species Japan 2 nd world producers Scallop cultivated : in the north part of Japan. Aquaculture: 40% scallop productions (MAFF, 2005; FAO, 2007) Production (million tonnes) Production (1000 tons) 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 World Japan China Zygoclamis patagonica 3.8% 13.2 Patinopecten megellanicus 13.2% Pecten maximus 2.3% 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 Total 3.8 Wild fishery Argopecten purpuratus 2.2% 2.2 2.6 Others 2.3 2.6% Patinopecten (Mizuhopecten) yessoensis FAO, 2007 Aquaculture Hokkaido FAO, 2007 75.9% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 75.9
CCRF: Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries EAA: Ecosystem Approach for Aquaculture Sustainable scallop culture Climate change Monitoring program Scallop aquaculture Ideal habitat & Environmental condition CCRF EAA
Climate change Temperature change 4.0 C (A1FI) 2.4 C (B2) 1.8 C (B1) (IPCC, 2007) Future changes in surface temperature for the end of the 21 st century Possible impacts on the productivity across the coastal and marine systems (Beukema and Dekker, 2005; Harley et al., 2006; Baba et al., 2009)
Objective To examine the potential impact of climate change on the development of scallop aquaculture Investigate the indirect impact of CC on suitable sites of scallop aquaculture
Characteristic of the study area OW TW Depth, maximum 107 m and mean 38 m 2315 km 2 surface area, and a 195 km coastline Water replace 2 time a year : OW & TW
Methodology ORIGINAL MODEL CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTION MODIS-Aqua MODELS (2002 2004) SST Satellite Map (analog and digital) IPCC 2007 Chl-a nlw555-ss SeaWiFS (1998 2004) nlw(555) SS Predicted models Spatial data construction Criteria map construction (Factors and constraints) Score and weight determination; GIS models Suitable site of scallop aquaculture Town Piers Land-facilities Harbor River mouth Increased SST 4 o C (A1FI) Bathymetry Increased SST 2 o C (B2) Scallop larvae Increased SST 1 o C (B1) Exist. scallop ALOS AVNIR-2 (12 August 2007) Suitable site (SST 4 o C) A hydrographic (1:50 000) Maps: April July 2003 GPS data Suitable site (SST 2 o C) Suitable site (SST 1 o C)
Original model construction Built on hierarchical structure Scoring: 1 (least suitable) - 8 (most suitable) (Radiarta et al., 2008) Weighting: MCE method known Suitability AHP score Parameters (Saaty, 1977) GIS model: MCE-Weighted Linear Combination 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Bathymetry (m) > 20.0 17.5-20.0 15.0-17.5 12.5-15.0 10.0-12.5 7.5-10.0 5.0-7.5 <5.0 Larvae level (No./ton) >1000 850-1000 700-850 550-700 400-550 250-400100-250<100 Distance to town (km) <3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 >9 (Malczewski, 2000 ) V(x ) i j w j r ij w j = weight, w j = 1, r ij = the attribute transformed into score (1-8) The most preferred alternative is the maximum V(xi) value
Original model construction Goal Scallop site selection Submodels Physical Biological Socialinfrastructural Weight 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.46 0.31 0.23 Criteria SST SS Bathymetry Larvae Chl-a Town Piers Land Fac. Harbor Constraints Town River Industry
Original model verification Model verification To determine how much the existing scallop culture matched with the suitability sites model By making comparisons between the suitablesites models and existing scallop aquaculture operations Existing scallop Model verification? Final suitability model
CC model construction Consider only change of SST values Assume other variables constant Original model Suitable sites Reanalyzed (IPCC, 2007) A1FI B2 B1 Predicted models SST Increased 4 C SST Increased 2 C SST Increased 1 C
Results and discussion Area of interest Suitable area based on 60 m depth to minimize operation costs and difficulty in mooring systems Potential area about 1038 km 2 ( 45%)
Final original model Scores and proportional area (%) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 10.89 20.1 28 29 Constraint Low High
Original model verification Final Model Existing scallop Scores and proportional area (%) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Outside > 60m 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.0 24.8 60.0 8.0
CC Prediction model Scenario O-Model 1 C 2 C 4 C Suitability area (%) 50 40 30 20 1 O-Model 24 C 10 Original model SST: 1 degree SST: 2 degree SST: 4 degree B1 B2A1FI 4 C 3 C 2 C 1 C 0 C 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Suitability scores
CC Prediction model 1 C 2 C 4 C Change of suitability score Prediction models showed CC impact on development of scallop culture Continues study on the impact of climate change on the scallop aquaculture development are challenging and need further research
Conclusions Funka Bay has a potential area for scallop aquaculture development, indicated by high suitable area ( 30%, score 8). Change of surface temperature (climate change) significantly affected the suitable areas. Climate change impact needs to be considered for future development of marine aquaculture.
PICES Annual Meeting, Jeju, R. Korea S5-MEQ Session, October 28, 2009 Thank you I Nyoman Radiarta 1,2, Sei-Ichi Saitoh 1 and Toru Hirawake 1 1 Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, Japan 2 Research Center for Aquaculture, MMAF, Jakarta, Indonesia