LNG & Sustainable Natural Gas Supply January 22 d 2008
LNG era opens up attractive opportunities for gas producers
Middle East and Russia present two major natural gas suppliers to take a global long-term position World Gas Reserves (Bln m 3 ) 48,0 72,8 7,3 5,8 Европа Europe Russia Россия North С.Америка America 7,1 South Ю. Америка America Ближний Middle Восток East 14,6 Африка Africa 14,2 Asia-Pacific АТР 2
Market overlaps provide specific location arbitrage opportunity for LNG trading U.S. Atlantic Europe East Asia Middle East Pacific Source: Pace Global and various public sources 3
North American and European spot gas prices have been largely independent, tied only by prevailing world oil prices 14 12 National Balancing Point German Border Price Henry Hub Zeebrugge 10 2006$/MMBtu 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Source: Pace Global 4
Different markets vary significantly by liquidity and seasonal arbitrage opportunities Natural Gas Prices, December 2006/April 2007 $8.0 $7.4 06 07 $5.6 UK $4.5 $4.6 06 07 USA 06 07 SPAIN $4.1 $7.6 $3.9 06 07 BELGIUM $7.2 $7.1 06 07 KOREA $6.7 $6.9 06 07 JAPAN LEGEND Market Price LNG Contract Price Source: Pace Global and various public sources 5
Notably, a pattern is emerging, despite the 2005-2006 hiccups 16 14 12 10 2005: U.S. Hurricane Season 2005-06: U.K. Transitions to Net Importer 8 6 4 2 0 6 2006$/MMBtu Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 NBP GBP Henry Hub
Gazprom represents Russian natural gas sector in the new global market place
Stable Production Growth Strong Production Plan bcm 523.2 Stable Growth Production Volumes over Last 5 Years (1) 512.0 525.6 547.6 552.5 555.0 556.0 2000A 2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A Satellite Fields Field Launch Year Year Of Peak Production Peak Production Kharvutinskoye 1996 2008 25.0 bcm p.a. Yen-Yahinskoye 2003 2008 5.0 bcm p.a. Pestsovoye 2004 2006 27.5 bcm p.a. Ety-Purovskoye 2004 2006 15.0 bcm p.a. Aneryakhinskoye 2004 2006 10.0 bcm p.a. Yuzho-Russkoye 2007 2009 25 bcm p.a. Zapolyarnoye (Valanzhinsk deposit) 2008 2010 15 bcm p.a. New Giant Fields New Production Capacity Bovanenkovskoye 2011-115 (2) bcm p.a. Kharasaveiskoye - - 38 bcm p.a. Shtokmanovskoye 2013 After 2015 71 bcm p.a. Over 85% of Russian Gas Production (3) EV / Production International Majors Total gas production in 2006, bcm 600 556.0 120 80 40 28.7 14.6 13.6 13.6 8.7 0 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 (k$/boepd) 115 89 80 68 65 25 BP Chevron Exxon Shell Total Gazprom (1) For the years 2003-2006 a new methodology applied that fully conforms with the accounting principals of consolidation utilized by Gazprom (2) Can be potentially extended to 140 bcm p.a. in the long run (3) Companies data. ITERA is not included (in 2004 produced 14 bcm) 8
Unmatched Reserve Base Exceptional Undervalued Reserves and a Long Reserve Life Unparalleled Amount of Proved Reserves and Longest Reserve Life 116.7 (32 yrs) Gazprom Neft 4,6 90.1 (13 yrs) 84.9 (22 yrs) 25.0 20.0 15.0 ($/boe) EV / Reserves International Majors 15.2 24.8 21.3 16.4 18.9 10.0 12.0 Gazprom + Gazprom neft Supermajor Combined Total Proved Reserves in 2006 (mmboe) Major Emerging Markets Combined Reserve life in years based on proved reserves and 2006 production 15.0 (USD/BOE) 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 9.1 BP Exploration & Production CAPEX / Total Production Ratio (2) 13.1 Chevron 10.5 Exxon 4.0 Shell 13.1 Total 1.8 Gazprom 5.0 0.0 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 16% Reserve Recovery Ratio above 100% over Last 2 Years (1) 32% 96% 79% 69% 105% 106% 100+% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2011F 2.4 BP Chevron Exxon Shell Total Gazprom Source: Company data, J.S. Herold, Companies Annual Reports Notes: (1) - ABC1 (2) Calculations based on 2006 results Reserves Recovery Ratio for Gazprom based on ABC1 gas reserves increases as a result of exploration activities. Reserves for Russian companies based on SPE International Standards (and certain provisions of SEC Standards for Gazprom and Gazprom Neft) Reserves based on SEC or SORP Standards for non-russian corporates Rosneft figures exclude gas 9
Recent Developments: Shtokman Increasing Value Through Both Piped Gas and LNG Deliveries Strategic Importance Transaction Summary On July 13, 2007, Gazprom signed a framework agreement with Total S.A. on main conditions of cooperation regarding Shtokman field development StatoilHydro joined the project with 24% stake Parties will establish a project development company with Gazprom s stake 51%, Total s stake - 25%, StatoilHydro 24% Gazprom will retain control over the SPV (51%), 100% ownership of the license and rights for 100% of the production Reserves and Production A+B+C1+C2 First Phase Development Gas, tcm 3.7 Production volume on completion, bcm 23.7 Gas condensate, mln tonns 31.0 Beginning of pipeline deliveries 2013 Gas production potential, bcm p.a. 71.0 (1) Beginning of LNG supply 2014 (1) Can be potentially extended to 95 bcm p.a. 10
Recent Developments: Sakhalin II New promising region for Gazprom Overview Objectives IV V Acquisition Price Cash - USD 7.45 bln SEIC (1) will remain the operator of the Sakhalin II project Pipeline to mainland Russia I III c II III b III a VI Participants Reserves Phase II Gazprom (50%+1) Shell (27.5%) Mitsui (12.5%) Mitsubishi (10%) Oil 600 mln t Gas 700 bcm To implement the project in line with the schedule including obtaining all necessary permits and approvals All existing LNG sales contracts will remain in force Target Production Capacity 340,000 boe/d Including LNG - 9.6 mln t p.a. LNG deliveries are expected to start in 2008, nearly 100% has been already contracted 800 km oil and gas pipelines to the South of Sakhalin connecting the fields with oil and gas shipment terminals and the LNG plant Production start year 1999 Deliveries Asian markets North America The first LNG plant and associated export facilities built in Russia (1) Sakhalin Energy Investment Company Ltd 11
Pipeline Network Building the Bridge to European Customers Over 155,000 of Gas Pipelines Growing Transportation Revenue (1) (US$ mln) 1500 115 bcm 150 1000 82.9 87.7 96.6 100 500 1,085 1,116 963 1,326 50 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 Gas Transportation Revenue Independent Suppliers Transported Volumes 0 Export Routes under Development PROJECT CAPACITY TYPE / DESCRIPTION COMMISSION DATE (2) Blue Stream 16 bcm Further development of gas pipeline from Russia under the Black Sea to Turkey 2010 SRTO - Torzhok 20.5-28.5 bcm Gas pipeline to enhance gas export through the Yamal-Europe pipeline 2010 Nord Stream Pipeline 55 bcm Gas pipeline from Russia under Baltic Sea to Germany 2010 (1) Amounts include gas in transit from Central Asia on behalf of other parties Exchange rate of RR 26.0113 = US$ 1.00, which was the CBR rate on March 31, 2007 (2) For Blue Stream and Yamal-Europe date of projected capacity, for NSP date of first pipeline branch commissioning 12
Nord Stream Diversification of the Transportation Routes Nord Stream Gas Pipeline New Transportation Route Length (offshore segment) 1,200km Capacity (two pipelines) 55 bcm Operation Start Year 2010 (first pipeline) Operator Nord Stream AG No Transit Countries Capital Investment EUR 6 bln. (1) Ownership (2) Gazprom 51.0% BASF 24.5% E.ON 24.5% Project finance for the offshore section Potential for additional partners to join the project Nord Stream (off-shore part) Ireland UK Portugal Spain France Norway Denmark Sweden Germany Poland Czech Rep. Finland Estonia Latvia Lithuania Belarus Ukraine Austria Hungary Croatia Romania Italy Algeria Tunisia Bulgaria Greece Connecting part (on-shore part) Turkey Iraq Syria Russia Iran Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Afghanistan Preparation stage Off-Shore Forthcoming tenders for pipes supplies Procurement of construction materials began in 2007 Project is being implemented in strict compliance with ecological policies of Baltic sea countries On-Shore Constructor and owner - Gazprom Construction stage (commenced in late 2005) 144 km of the total 917 km pipeline put into trial operation in 2006 Contracts signed for materials and pipelines supply No schedule delays Notes: (1) Offshore section, two branches, preliminary estimates (2) In October 2006, we signed a MoU with Gasuni pursuant to which Gasuni is expected to enter the NEP project with an interest of 9%. As a result, the interests of BASF and E.ON can be reduced to 20% each. 13
Newly emerging markets demonstrate growth, which, if grasped, will make Gazprom a true global energy player Asian Markets Significant Growth Opportunities Strong Growth Expected in the Asian Gas Market South Korea China 64 73 25 28 34 36 36 36 0 17 25 45 2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Net Imports (bcm) India 2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Net Imports (bcm) Japan 84 87 95 98 98 104 59 0 11 11 17 34 2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Net Imports (bcm) 2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Net Imports (bcm) Source: EIA Projected International Dry Natural Gas Consumption to 2030 Notes: Net import represents total consumption less own production and export 14
China s emerging natural gas industry provides a unique opportunity of sustained growth in natural gas consumption 86.5 Tcf estimated reserves 2.1 Tcf/yr production Demand growth 1.8 Tcf 3.4 Tcf by 2012 Huge pipeline infrastructure build-out underway One LNG terminal, two still planned, eight cancelled! 2.3 Bcf/d in 2009 15
Russia along could gasify the Chinese power system 16
Gazprom carefully investigates the global natural gas market place to develop a balanced and sustained strategy ahead
Gazprom is utilizing existing advantages of the shorter distances than of the competitors 12000 18 NIGERIA COVE POINT (5200) NORWAY COVE POINT (4200) ALGERIA COVE POINT (3700) TRINIDAD COVE POINT (1900) AUSTRALIA COVE POINT (11300) QATAR COVE POINT (8100) OMAN COVE POINT (7900) AUSTRALIA CALIFORNIA (6700) RUSSIA (SAKHALIN) CALIFORNIA (5000) RUSSIA (MURMANSK) COVE POINT (4400) 10000 8000 RUSSIA (MURMANSK) MONTOIR-DE-BRETAGNE (2050) RUSSIA (MURMANSK) ISLE OF GRAIN (1650) 6000 4000 2000 0 Sea miles
With new supplies on the way, the transatlantic reallocation of cargos will only grow Relative Levels of Piped Gas Availability Relative Levels of Seasonal Demand Relative Transatlantic Price Levels LNG Supply Flows 19
Regas terminals in Europe are not supported by the grid 20
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