ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK 2017 A global and regional forecast of the energy transition to 2050 Ben Oudman DNV GL Oil & Gas 1 DNV GL 2017 22 November 2017 15 December 2017 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
DNV GL: a global impact for a safe and sustainable future 13 550 Technical experts globally 3 000 in Oil and Gas 150 years of experience Expertise 6% PHD 42% Master 39% Bachelor Cross industry Oil & Gas, Maritime, Energy, Software, etc. 2
What is Energy Transition Outlook 2017? An independent forecast of how the world s energy mix will evolve towards 2050 Based on our own energy model, forecasting regional energy demand, supply and transport Analyses published in a new suite of Energy Transition Outlook reports:
Forecast world primary energy supply 4
Forecast world primary energy supply by source 5
World final energy demand by sector 6
Economic growth vs. energy 7
Economic growth vs. energy efficiency growth 2015 2050 14 34 US Dollar generated per megajoule 8
World final energy demand by energy carrier 9
Energy use per region Europe North East Eurasia North America China Latin America Indian Subcontinent Sub-Saharan Africa South East Asia Middle East and North Africa 2017 2050 OECD Pacific 2017 2050 non fossil fossil 10
GtCO₂ C Carbon budget 2500 2,5 2000 Carbon budget Temperature above pre-industrial times 2,0 1500 1,5 1000 1,0 500 0 2042 0,5 0,0-500 -0,5 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 11
ZOOMING IN ON GAS
Gas production
Transmission systems
Electricity is decarbonizing Growth of solar PV and wind by 2050 12% 24% 36% By 2050, well over 80% of electricity will be generated by renewable sources with wind and solar PV each contributing over one third of the mix. During the outlook period, solar PV will grow 80-fold and wind (combined offshore and onshore) 30 fold.
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
Biogas An increasing number of biomethane injection plants and/or gas-fired power plants using renewable feedstock/fuel is expected in regions with well-developed natural gas infrastructure Biomethane expected to be a transition fuel for residential heating In the long term biomethane will predominantly be used to fuel the transport sector.
Hydrogen (H 2 ) H 2 does not emit greenhouse gases during processing, transport and burning, and can store energy from renewable sources in fuel cells It is currently unclear if H 2 will become a major zero-carbon energy carrier Uncertainties include: technology learning curves future cost developments the strength of political support Knowledge of diffusion and combustion risks.
European Electricity Capacity: massive scale and overcapacity
Fluctuating Generation from renewables drive the need for long term storage PV and wind will grow rapidly Fluctuating generation Extreme variability in week/month range: Dunkelflaute High need for long term storage
Power-to-Gas concept 21
Click icon to add table Power to Gas Storage potential 240 GWe 270% 100s GW 900 TWh Was the installed capacity of solar and wind power in Europe in 2015 Is the expected growth of installed capacity of solar and wind power in Europe towards 2050 Storage capacity is expected to be needed in 2050 in a fully decarbonised electricity supply in Europe Is currently stored in existing UGS facilities in Europe 70 TWh European pumped hydro storage capacity
Power to Gas Storage & Transmission option: Energy island in North Sea? 23
Battery or fuel cell? Specific energy H 2 = 33kWh/kg Li-Ion battery = 0.1-0.25kWh/kg
Image courtesy of Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM) Carbon capture and storage (CCS) CCS will not take off rapidly, but will start to gain momentum towards 2050 A higher cost of carbon is critical for the role of CCS in the mitigating climate change Carbon prices expected to increase, but remain lower than real emission costs CCS cost per tonne of CO 2 assuming limited uptake of this technology: 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 115 115 110 88 71 12 CCS development projects expected to come to fruition before 2035.
Summary Energy decouples from CARBON, POPULATION and ECONOMIC GROWTH Oil and gas account for 44% of world energy supply by 2050 TWOFOLD increase in global ENERGY EFFICIENCY driven by Electrification Energy demand will PLATEAU after 2030 H 2 CCS GAS becomes the LARGEST single energy source with peak demand by 2035 Biogas is a transition fuel for residential heating and destination fuel for aviation & trucking Hydrogen s impact too uncertain to include in our forecast CCS will not take off rapidly, but will start to gain momentum towards 2050
Thank you! Ben Oudman ben.oudman@dnvgl.com +31 6 15349662 www.dnvgl.com SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER