Indicators from the Environmental Sustainability Index Related to Land Degradation Alex de Sherbinin CIESIN Columbia University KM:Land Initiative Workshop Selfoss, Iceland 28 August 2007 What is the ESI? The ESI measures the relative progress of 46 countries towards sustainability The ESI score quantifies the likelihood that a country will be able to preserve valuable environmental resources effectively over the period of several decades. (2005 ESI report, p.23) It is constructed from 76 variables aggregated to 2 indicators and 5 components It is developed on the premise the effective indicators describe problems, diagnose causes, design solutions, and drive action
2005 Environmental Sustainability Index Partners Constructing the ESI 76 variables 2 indicators equally weighted average 5 components ESI Score 2
Nitrogen dioxide concentration Sulfur dioxide concentration Ecoregions at risk Threatened birds Threatened mammals Wilderness area Dissolved oxygen Electrical conductivity Surface water availability Coal consumption Nitrogen oxide emissions Sulfur dioxide emissions Forest cover change Population growth Ecological Footprint Waste recycling rates Industrial organic effluents Fertilizer consumption Overfishing Sustainably managed forests Market distortions Deaths from intestinal infect. diseases Child mortality rate Malnutrition Casualties due to environmental disasters Gasoline price Corruption Government effectiveness Protected land area Environmental governance Strength of rule of law Energy efficiency Corporate sustainability (Dow Jones) Corporate sustainability (Innovest) ISO 400 certified companies Innovation capacity Digital Access Index Female primary education Intergovernmental environmental activities Role in intl. environmental aid Transboundary sulfur dioxide spillovers 76 Variables 2 Indicators 5 Components Particulate concentration Indoor air quality Threatened amphibians National Biodiversity Index Developed area Suspended solids Phosphorus concentration Groundwater availability VOC emissions Vehicles in use Acidification Total fertility rate Hazardous waste generation Pesticide consumption Area under water stress Salinization due to irrigation Agricultural subsidies Child mortality due to respiratory infections Safe drinking water supply Environmental Hazard Exposure Index Civil and political liberties Sustainable development data gaps International environmental engagement Environmental knowledge creation Democratic institutions Local Agenda 2 initiatives Renewable energy production Private sector environmental innovation Participation in Responsible Care Program University enrollment Research scientists Participation in intl. environmental agreements Polluting-goods imports Air Quality Biodiversity Land Water Quality Water Quantity Reducing Air Pollution Reducing Ecosystem Stress Reducing Population Pressure Reducing Waste & Consumption Pressures Reducing Water Stress Natural Resources Management Environmental Health Basic Human Sustenance Exposure to Natural Disasters Environmental Governance Energy Efficiency Private Sector Responsiveness Science and Technology Participation in International Collaborative Efforts Reducing Transboundary Environmental Pressures Environmental Systems Reducing Stresses Reducing Human Vulnerability Social and Institutional Capacity Greenhouse gas emissions / GDP Greenhouse gas emissions / capita Greenhouse Gas Emissions Global Stewardship Indicator Construction Variables Indicator Component NO 2 concentration SO 2 concentration Particulate concentration Indoor air quality Air Quality Biodiversity Land Water Quality Water Quantity Environmental Systems 3
ESI Rankings Top Ten Other Countries Bottom Ten 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 Finland Norway Uruguay Iceland Sweden Canada Switzerland Guyana Argentina Austria 3 33 36 45 65 93 95 0 33 Germany Russia France U.S.A. U.K. Mexico 37 38 39 40 4 42 43 44 45 46 Yemen Kuwait Trinidad & Tob. Sudan Haiti Uzbekistan Iraq Turkmenistan Taiwan North Korea ESI Scores by Quintile Bottom Quintile 4 th Quintile 3 rd Quintile 2 nd Quintile Top Quintile 4
Peer-group Analysis Statistical analysis of similarities between countries allows to identify best practices, determine the leaders for any given issue 2005 ESI uses cluster analysis to group countries according to similarities in the 2 indicators Cluster Analysis: ESI Characteristic-Based Groupings 5
Most influential factor for 2005 ESI: Governance Most Highly Correlated variables with ESI Variable Civil liberties WEF environmental governance survey Government effectiveness Democratic institutions Rule of Law Participation in intl. Environmental agreements Correlation 0.59 0.54 0.5 0.50 0.50 0.49 Assessing Land Degradation Using ESI Variables Agricultural Land: Fertilizer consumption per hectare (00 gr./ha) Pesticide consumption per hectare (00 gr./ha) Salinized lands as % of irrigated land area Agricultural subsidies (scale from to 8, with 8 highest) Forests Forest certification (% forests under FSC and PEFC) Deforestation (% annual change 990-2000) Water: Water quality indicator (combined DO, PH, SS, and EC) Water availability (,000 cubic meters per person) Water stress (% territory in which consumption >40% avail.) 6
Sample Results 5 ESI countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe & former Soviet Union Results are only indicative Fertilizer Use per Hectare Arable Land (00 gr/ha) Malaysia Costa Rica Egypt Lebanon Viet Nam Sri Lanka FERTHA 6,28.76 5,686.67 4,574.6 3,20.77 3,075.69 2,66.54 = 628 kg/ha Angola Liberia Bhutan Cambodia Rwanda Central Afr. Rep. FERTHA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 3. Colombia 2,545.3 3.68 greatest application Chile Bangladesh Oman 2,463.03 2,426.84,675.70,576.58 least application Sierra Leone Gabon Niger Uganda 6.00 9.23.0.37 Uzbekistan,545.82 Madagascar 22.97 Croatia,474.98 Kazakhstan 23.40 Ecuador,423.46 Mongolia 26.69 Honduras,48.54 Ghana 27.57 Philippines,382.95 Moldova 28.02 Pakistan,360.44 Gambia 32.00 Guatemala,345.8 Guinea 35.96 Belarus,272.22 Burundi 38.89 Indonesia,23.02 Mauritania 40.98 Venezuela,54.73 4.79,50.60 Chad 48.6 North Korea,48.00 Sudan 48.67 Thailand,44.67 Kyrgyzstan 50.00 Poland,4.2 Tanzania 56.25 El Salvador,08.70 6.25 kg/ha = Mozambique 62.25,073.24 Zambia 69.20 7
Salinized Lands as Percent of Irrigated Land Area Uzbekistan Egypt Turkmenistan Cuba Iran IRRSAL 44.36 36.77 34.06 2.80 2.86 Agricultural Subidies Score Hungary Mexico Poland Slovakia Argentina AGSUB 6 3 2 2 Tajikistan 0.87 greatest soil salinization Indonesia Azerbaijan Peru Armenia Kyrgyzstan 9.82 9.20 7.00 6.02 4.8 highest subsidies Bulgaria Costa Rica Tunisia Morocco Argentina.68 Turkey Chile.46 Mexico.4 Thailand Bangladesh.8 Venezuela Kazakhstan.2 Syria.2 Colombia 0.70 Jordan 0.57 Guatemala 0.26 0.02 Forest Certification (% forest area) Croatia Poland Latvia Lithuania FORCERT 00 68 58 40 8 Deforestation (annual % change) Burundi Haiti El Salvador Rwanda Niger FOREST -9.0-5.7-4.6-3.9-3.7 Guatemala 7 Togo -3.4 Hungary 0 Côte d'ivoire -3. highest percentages certified Chile Uruguay Costa Rica Ukraine Slovakia Mexico 6 6 3 3 2 2 highest deforestation Nicaragua Sierra Leone Mauritania Nigeria Zambia Malawi Benin -3.0-2.9-2.7-2.6-2.4-2.4-2.3 Belarus Uganda -2.0 Liberia -2.0 Uganda Yemen -.9 Sri Lanka Nepal -.8 Honduras Guatemala -.7 Zimbabwe Ghana -.7 Sri Lanka -.6 Nicaragua Panama -.6 Zimbabwe -.5 Jamaica -.5 Pakistan -.5 Philippines -.4 Sudan -.4 8
Water Quality Score (z-score) Russia Guyana Nicaragua Gabon SYS_WQL..06.04 0.78 Morocco Indonesia Pakistan Turkey SYS_WQL -.93 -.7 -.48 -.2 Oman 0.74 Iraq -.04 0.70-0.96 Macedonia 0.69 Algeria -0.89 Congo 0.68 Burundi -0.86 highest scores Panama Costa Rica Cuba 0.63 0.62 0.62 lowest scores Romania Haiti Nigeria -0.85-0.83-0.8 Cameroon 0.55 Tanzania -0.79 Mali 0.52 Uzbekistan -0.78 Uruguay 0.5 Mexico -0.74 Latvia 0.50 Moldova -0.74 Argentina Ethiopia -0.73 Ecuador 0.39 Serbia & M. -0.7 Mongolia 0.39 Lebanon -0.70 Botswana 0.38 Iran -0.69 Croatia 0.37-0.66 Slovakia 0.36 Syria -0.65 Note: this indicator utilized imputed data Central Af Cambodia Bosnia and H. Jamaica 0.35 0.33 0.3 0.30 Togo Ghana Azerbaijan Honduras -0.62-0.6-0.56-0.53 0.28 Ukraine -0.53 Malaysia 0.27 Benin -0.48 Water Stress (% of land area with consumption >40% of supply) highest stress Syria Nepal Azerbaijan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan Tunisia Egypt Iran Armenia Uzbekistan Iraq Lebanon Libya Morocco Jordan Pakistan Algeria Turkey Yemen Kazakhstan Bulgaria Chile Georgia Oman WATSTR 00 97 96 95 94 94 92 89 87 87 87 86 85 84 82 8 80 76 68 68 64 64 57 55 52 5 50 9
Water Availability (,000 cubic meters per capita) Congo Guyana Uruguay Gabon P. N. Guinea Angola Paraguay Colombia WATAVL 543.29 299.98 265.04 92.75 5.70 4 0.27 90.58 Jordan Tunisia Morocco Algeria Lebanon Burkina Faso Pakistan Oman WATAVL 0.37 0.66 0.68 0.76 0.88 0.96.0.35 greatest water availability Liberia Laos Peru Venezuela 80.90 75.03 74.99 65.42 60.50 least water availability Libya Armenia Iran Haiti.43.45.48.49.55 Central Afr. Rep. 57.73 Poland.75 54.75 Sri Lanka.86 53.07.88 Cambodia 45.74 Rwanda.88 Croatia 33.59 Ukraine.93 Nicaragua 32.07.94 Yemen 30.36 Egypt 2.8 Dem. Rep. Congo 30.36 Dominican Rep. 2.23 Ecuador 29.52 Cuba 2.28 Panama 28.89 Burundi 2.38 Mongolia 28.26 Syria 2.50 Sierra Leone 27.94 Ethiopia 2.5 Argentina 27.27 Uzbekistan 2.60 Russia 24.65 Kenya 2.65 Sub- Indices Dem. Rep. Congo Cambodia Liberia Central Afr. Rep. Ag Land Score 0.49 0.47 0.47 0.47 Croatia Poland Latvia Uruguay Forest Score 2.46.69.47.44 Congo Guyana Uruguay Gabon Water Score 3.2 2.00.63.35 Sierra Leone Oman.37 P. N. Guinea 0.92 Gabon Lithuania 0.98 Angola 0.77 Niger Belarus 0.82 Paraguay 0.75 Highest scoring countries Madagascar Angola Rwanda Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Libya Hungary 0.82 0.62 0.5 0.33 0.29 0.27 Colombia Nicaragua Russia Laos Central Afr. Rep. 0.63 0.62 0.6 0.57 0.55 0.52 Gambia Algeria 0.26 Panama Guinea Armenia 0.26 Chad Bangladesh 0.26 Cambodia Sudan Azerbaijan 0.26 Costa Rica 0.43 Tanzania Cuba 0.26 Cameroon 0.39 Mozambique 0.23 Croatia 0.38 Togo Slovakia 0.20 Liberia 0.36 Guinea-Bissau Gambia 0.8 Mongolia 0.35 Cameroon Bulgaria 0.07 Macedonia 0.35 Mali Tajikistan 0.04 Latvia 0.33 Ethiopia Viet Nam 0.04 0.3 Burkina Faso Ukraine 0.04 Slovakia 0.30 Bhutan Chile 0.03 Bhutan 0.29 Botswana 0.44 Romania -0.03 Ecuador 0.29 0
Overall Score Kazakhstan 0.4 Uganda 0.00 Malaysia -0.6 Congo.4 Slovakia 0.3 Ecuador 0.00 Côte d'ivoire -0.6 Uruguay.08 Mozambique 0.3 Albania 0.00 Nigeria -0.8 Croatia.02 Guinea 0.2 Cuba -0.02 Niger -0.9 Guyana 0.75 Mali 0.2 Dominican Rep. -0.02 Jordan -0.9 Latvia 0.74 Bangladesh 0. Viet Nam -0.02 Yemen -0.20 Poland 0.62 Guinea-Bissau 0. Bulgaria -0.03 Colombia -0.20 Gabon 0.49 Chad 0. Georgia -0.03 Azerbaijan -0.2 Oman 0.49 Botswana 0.09 Zimbabwe -0.03 Rwanda -0.2 Lithuania Guatemala 0.09 Libya -0.03 Sri Lanka -0.22 Belarus 0.4 Madagascar 0.09 Zambia -0.04 Togo -0.23 P. N. Guinea 0.37 Burkina Faso 0.09 Algeria -0.05 Tunisia -0.24 Angola 0.36 Myanmar 0.07-0.05 Tajikistan -0.25 0.29 Romania 0.07 Sudan -0.06 Turkey -0.25 Central Af 0.28 Kenya 0.06 Armenia -0.06 Indonesia -0.25 Laos 0.26 Tanzania 0.06 Thailand -0.06 Iraq -0.26 Paraguay 0.25 Liberia 0.06 Honduras -0.06 Syria -0.28 Gambia 0.23 Moldova 0.05 Malawi -0.06-0.30 Russia 0.22 North Korea 0.05 Ghana -0.07 Costa Rica -0.3 Cambodia 0.22 Ukraine 0.05 Jamaica -0.07 Egypt -0.34 Bhutan 0.2 Panama 0.04 Philippines -0.08 Iran -0.35 Macedonia 0.20 Venezuela 0.04 Mauritania -0.09 Mexico -0.36 Bosnia & H. 0.9 Kyrgyzstan 0.04 Ethiopia -0.09 Nepal -0.37 Mongolia 0.9 Peru 0.03 Sierra Leone -0.0 El Salvador -0.38 DR Congo 0.8 Argentina 0.02 Hungary -0.0 Pakistan - Cameroon 0.6 Senegal 0.02 Benin -0. Lebanon -0.47 0.5 Serbia & Montenegro 0.0 Chile -0.2 Morocco -0.50 0.5 Nicaragua 0.0-0.5 Haiti -0.50 Average Scores by Region Note: z-scores are calculated based on the full set of 46 ESI countries. Difference in means signficant at.00 level
No relationship between % territory in drylands and overall or water scores But the more rural a country is in terms of population distribution, the higher the overall score 2
Potential New Variables % of irrigation that is unsustainable Drought related mortality (time series or area extent) Percentage of Irrigation Based on Non- Renewable Water Resources Saudi Arabia Yemen Oman Libya Morocco Canada Mexico Mongolia Peru Pakistan UNSUSIRR 99.94 99.94 95.38 83.25 80.54 70.53 63.34 60.03 55.26 54.99 54.2 Japan Iran Iraq Georgia Algeria Tunisia Spain Sri Lanka Malaysia Italy Chad Syria 30.53 30.25 28.39 28.28 27.45 27.23 27.08 26.40 25.54 24.98 24.93 23.3 Bulgaria North Korea Venezuela Belarus Chile Ecuador Germany Mozambique Dominican Rep Ethiopia Greece 0.65 9.60 8.3 7.07 5.27 4.93 4.58 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.2 3.29 53.07 Afghanistan 2.00 Tanzania 2.57 Egypt 52.04 Turkey 20.8 Burkina Faso 2.5 Kazakhstan 50.5 Azerbaijan 20.72 Zimbabwe.64 Ukraine 47.46 Botswana 8.38 Uganda.07 Mauritania 45.60 Russia 7.06 Nigeria 0.67 USA 45.33 Poland 6.45 Sudan 45.4 Somalia 6.37 40.05 5.39 Gaza Strip 38.8 Australia 4.97 Uzbekistan 36.97 Angola 4.72 Source: Univ. of New Hampshire Water Systems Analysis Group Jordan Turkmenistan Argentina Kyrgyzstan Mali 35.34 34.5 32.72 32.48 32.42 Cuba Romania Kenya Hungary 4.64 4.3 3.30 2.74.35 Niger 3.76 Madagascar.02 3
ESI Approach Use best available data, but don t let the perfect be the enemy of the good ; leverage poor quality or proxy data by combining several variables to provide a more accurate picture Subnational variation is important, so we derive selected indicators from spatial data sets (e.g., anthropogenic land impacts, water availability/stress, disaster vulnerability, % land area in threatened ecoregions) Index/component/indicator/variable structure allows users to drill down and diagnose the cause of low scores Given that science cannot yet guide us on an objective weighting scheme, weight indicators equally Impute data sparingly, where there is a clear correlation between the target variable and independent variables for which data are available Be transparent about data strengths and weaknesses Challenge the global community to invest more in monitoring and data development 4
Environmental Performance Index (EPI) Approach Identify performance targets for 6 indicators Measure each country s proximity to target Group indicators in 6 policy categories Focus on policy-mutable indicators; avoid measures that relate to natural endowments or past environmental impacts The 2005 ESI is available at: http://www.yale.edu/esi For more on sustainability indicators visit: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/es/ 5