Roundtable 2: Energy Efficiency and Demand Management John Jimison, Energy Future Coalition Alexandra Langenheld, Agora Energiewende Co-Chairs
Efficiency has already been the largest recent source of incremental energy We used one-fourth of the amount of incremental energy projected in 1970 to produce the projected growth of national GDP in 2000. By 2010, our energy consumption is less than half the level forecast in 1970 as necessary to sustain the target level of economic growth. 200 U.S. Energy Consumption 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Actual Energy Use 1973 Projection
EJ Mtoe 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 The same gains were made in 11 International Energy Agency nations Between 1974 and 2010, EE was the largest energy resource. Cumulative avoided energy consumption due to energy efficiency in these 11 IEA countries amounted to over 1 350 EJ (32 billion toe) Hypothetical energy use had there been no energy efficiency improvements Total final Consumption (TFC) Avoided energy equal to 65% of 2010 TFC 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Coal Oil Gas Electricity Other Avoided energy use TFC IEA EEMR 2013
Despite these gains, the remaining potential EE is huge
Energy Flows and Waste Streams
Despite these gains, the remaining potential EE is huge The US in 2011 delivered 41.7 Quads (quadrillion Btus) of useful energy to economic sectors. The US threw away 55.6 Quads of primary energy in the process -- 57% of the total consumed (27% from power plants, 21% from transportation, and 9% from all other sectors).
Despite these gains, the remaining potential EE is huge The US in 2011 delivered 41.7 Quads (quadrillion Btus) of useful energy to economic sectors. The US threw away 55.6 Quads of primary energy in the process -- 57% of the total consumed (27% from power plants, 21% from transportation, and 9% from all other sectors). The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy has calculated that, of the 41.7 Quads actually delivered for its purposes, we could provide today s energy services at current levels using state-of-the-art technologies in buildings, equipment, and vehicles and reduce delivered energy consumption by 86%!
The Advantages of Energy Efficiency Most abundant potential energy source Shortest lead-time Lowest cost incremental source of energy Primarily uses on-the-shelf technologies Cleanest no incremental emissions Wholly domestic no national security considerations Least obtrusive no land use impacts, NIMBY issues Gained at end-use level leverages all conversion losses Lowers energy costs across the board Keeps producing indefinitely non-depletable Zero carbon, reduces use of carbon-based energy Available in every region of the nation (and world) Most job-intensive activity in the energy sector
The Disadvantages of Energy Efficiency Requires hundreds of millions of individual decisions Almost all of which are driven primarily by non-energy factors With significant individual transaction costs, modest individual gains Usually requiring significant up-front capital investment Usually under varied state or local law or regulations, not national policy Requires efforts to measure and verify Can be self-defeating by reducing energy costs the rebound effect Requires knowledge, skills, and awareness of energy economics that most consumers do not have. Consumer prices are disguised by averaging (especially in gas and electricity), so price signals for efficiency are missing or distorted. Key Disadvantage: EE has no major political constituencies among voters or industries. Most advantages are societal, not individual, therefore require government policy to create conditions for achieving them.
The Advantages of Energy Efficiency Most abundant potential energy source Shortest lead-time Lowest cost incremental source of energy Primarily uses on-the-shelf technologies Cleanest no incremental emissions Wholly domestic no national security considerations Least obtrusive no land use impacts, NIMBY issues Gained at end-use level leverages all conversion losses Lowers energy costs across the board Keeps producing indefinitely non-depletable Zero carbon, reduces use of carbon-based energy Available in every region of the nation (and world) Most job-intensive activity in the energy sector
1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Projections After economic crisis and ARRA 09, 2013 EIA Annual Energy Outlook Projected U.S. Energy Consumption 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Actual 1973 Projection AEO 2005 AEO 2009 ARRA 2009 AEO 2013
Annual Percent Growth in Electricity Demand Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2012, EIA, June 2012
Gt EE a key element for CC Mitigation Energy-related CO 2 emission abatement in the 450 Scenario 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 New Policies Scenario ~ 4 C 450 Scenario ~ 2 C 20 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Gt EE a key element for CC Mitigation Energy-related CO 2 emission abatement in the 450 Scenario 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 New Policies Scenario ~ 4 C 450 Scenario ~ 2 C 20 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 CO 2 abatement 2020 2035 Activity 2% 2% End-use efficiency 18% 13% Power plant efficiency 3% 2% Electricity savings 50% 27% Fuel and technology switching in end-uses 2% 3% Renewables 15% 23% Biofuels 2% 4% Nuclear 5% 8% CCS 4% 17% Total (Gt CO 2 ) 3.1 15.0
Gt EE a key element for CC Mitigation Energy-related CO 2 emission abatement in the 450 Scenario 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 New Policies Scenario ~ 4 C 450 Scenario ~ 2 C 20 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 CO 2 abatement 2020 2035 End-use efficiency 18% 13% Power plant efficiency 3% 2% Electricity savings 50% 27%
1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Energy Efficiency Measures Alone Could Meet US Climate Targets 200 Projected U.S. Energy Consumption 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Actual AEO 2013 Fossil 20% CO2 Potential EE
Key Questions How do we implement all cost-effective energy efficiency measures, not merely those with the shortest paybacks? How do we overcome pushback to update building and appliance standards as improved technologies permit?