Fresh vs Processed tomato consumption (2) The comparative study of consumption according to the fresh or table-tomato and processed categories presented last month has led us to differentiate between five types of markets: Potential markets, where total tomato consumption amounts to very large volumes but where the consumption of processed tomato products remains negligible (a ratio < 5%): Indian Peninsula, China and Central Asia; Developing markets, where the demand for tomato-based products is regular, but does not allow the category to exceed 25% of the total demand for tomato: Turkey, Ukraine, Mediterranean Africa, Iraq and Eastern Africa; Maturing markets, where the use of processed tomato is well established but does not account for more than half of the total volume of tomatoes consumed: Brazil, Central America, Southern Africa, Russia, Iran, Yemen, EU(12) and Arabic Peninsula; Confirmed markets, where table tomatoes are more frequently replaced by processed products, which can account for up to three-quarters of the total consumption of tomato: Far East, non-ec countries, Western Africa, Andean America; Mature markets, where processed products have been established for a long time and are used systematically, sometimes to the extent of totally replacing table-tomato consumption: United Arab Emirates, Northern America, EU (15) Australia. Potential markets (Indian Peninsula, China and Central Asia) In Central Asia, the consumption of fresh tomatoes clearly remains a major feature of the different types of cuisine found in this huge region. Table tomatoes accounted for 98% of the total tomato consumption in 1999 and still account for 95% ten years later. The progression is more marked than in China, as a slow emergence of tomato products has been observed in the cooking habits of the region. The consumption of processed products grew from 690 tonnes out of a total of 1.6 million in 1999, to 182 000 tonnes (farm weight equivalent) out of a total 3.67 million tonnes in 2009.
Indian Peninsula, China and Central Asia, which are geographically close to each other, represent an exceptional potential for growth, given the current proportionally low consumption of processed products compared with total tomato consumption. This is accentuated by the high population density of China and India. Over the past ten years, the consumption of processed products has grown much more rapidly than the consumption of table tomatoes it has almost quadrupled, whereas the consumption of table tomatoes has only grown by 52%. However, the very rapid progress recorded by this group represents a potential that is as yet virtually untapped. The quantities remain relatively low and the expected takeoff of processed products is slow in coming. Developing markets (Turkey, Ukraine, Mediterranean Africa, Iraq and Eastern Africa) With the situation in Turkey, we start to look at regions where the consumption of processed tomato products weighs in significantly, compared to total consumption. Whereas it was relatively low ten years ago (slightly more than 200 000 tonnes of farm weight equivalent, against a total tomato consumption of 7.5 million tonnes), processed products consumption has grown progressively, to the point where it accounted for 14% of the total for 2009 (1.2 million tonnes out of approximately 9 million). This progression has helped to compensate for the slowdown in the export activities of the Turkish processing industry observed over the decade.
Maturing markets (Brazil, Central America, Southern Africa, Russia, Iran, Yemen, Eu(12) and Arabic Peninsula) This next group includes the regions where the demand for tomato products is historically established, and where the ratio, based on a more sustainable consumption pattern, varies between 25% and 50%. This is also the largest group of regions, with 9 of the 26 zones examined in this report. Central America is really typical of this group of regions, with a regular trend replacing table tomatoes with their processed equivalence. The volumes involved in this proportional shift are significant, since total consumption grew from 1.8 million to 3.2 million tonnes over the period. During this time, the consumption of tomato products was multiplied by 3.5, with processed products amounting in 2009 to more than 916 000 tonnes of farm weight equivalent, or 29% of the total.
Confirmed markets (Far East, non-ec countries, Western Africa and Andean America) These different regions have reached or exceeded a point of equilibrium between the two categories of consumption, and the West Africa is the perfect illustration of this profile. As far as available data indicates variations, the processed/total ratio has pursued its long-standing progression that led in 2009 to an almost perfect balance between the consumption of processed products and the consumption of table tomatoes. The quantities are considerable, as total consumption increased from 3.5 million tonnes in 1999 to 4.2 million tonnes in 2009, with both categories accounting for approximately 2.1 million tonnes each. West Africa, which is the fourth and last region studied for this continent, is the most dynamic in terms of the substitution of table-tomatoes by processed products. Just like in the non-ec countries of Europe, the balance between fresh and processed was reached in the middle of the last decade, and the following years saw a relative stagnation in the ratio between these two consumption categories. Yet despite this neutral period, industrially processed tomato products gained ground over the consumption of table-tomatoes, accounting for 51% of total tomato consumption in 2009 (1.97 million tonnes out of a total of 3.8 million tonnes).
Over the entire African continent, the total tomato consumption (fresh and processed) grew from 15.2 million tonnes in 1999 to 22.7 million tonnes in 2009 (+49%). Over this same period of time, the fresh and processed components evolved very differently, with 41% growth for the first category and 83% growth for the second (twice as fast). In the final count, the African ratio of processed product consumption to total tomato consumption grew from about 18% to 23% over the ten-year period. Mature markets (United Arab Emirates, Northern America, EU(15) and Australia- New Zealand) These four regions have been amply commented in some of our previous reports, mainly because they feature very high levels of processed tomato product consumption. So it comes as no surprise to see them appear once again in the top positions. But the point of this study is to underline another characteristic of consumption in these regions, which is expressed by the clear preference that local consumers have for processed tomato products over table tomatoes. The consumption levels of processed tomato recorded for these regions do not necessarily imply that table tomato consumption should not be at a similar level, or even higher. This cluster of regions is made up of countries that have the agricultural capacity, as well as the climate and the technology, to provide their respective markets with ample supplies, and still export fresh products abroad. But, in the end, these regions feature sharply marked consumption profiles, with a clear preference for processed products North America is clearly one of the regions where industrially processed tomato products have historically been included in the diet, perfectly integrated into eating habits. In 1999, more than two-thirds of the tomato consumed in North America was consumed in the form of processed products. This consumption profile demonstrates the long-standing dynamics and maturity of the market. NAFTA countries also have a processing industry that is historically well-implanted and strong, which explains the long-standing use of tomato products in culinary traditions. The quantities involved are considerable: at the beginning of the period, out of a total tomato consumption of
slightly less than 17 million tonnes, processed products accounted for approximately 11.3 million tonnes. However, there has been a slight but noticeable decrease in the total tomato market, which dropped by 640 000 tonnes over ten years. At the same time, the consumption of processed products also dropped slightly, with the result that the proportion of industrially processed products compared to total tomato consumption virtually stabilized, and remained close to 66% in 2009, just like over the rest of the decade. Supplementary data The following graph presents the distribution of the 200 countries studied, according to the ratio of processed product consumption / total consumption.
The following diagram presents a comparison, for each of the regions studied, of the ratios of processed tomato consumption to total tomato consumption in percentage points for 1999 and 2009. Map of the average ratios from 1999 to 2009 of processed products consumption / total tomato consumption.
(Sources Tomato News, December 2010)