International Energy Outlook 211 Center for Strategic and International Studies, Acting Administrator September 19, 211 Washington, DC U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
Key findings in the IEO211 Reference case World energy consumption increases by 53% between 28 and 235 with half of the increase attributed to China and India Renewables are the world s fastest-growing energy source, at 2.8% per year; renewables share of world energy grows to roughly 15% in 235 Fossil fuels continue to supply almost 8% of world energy use in 235 Liquid fuels remain the largest energy source worldwide through 235, but the oil share of total energy declines to 28% in 235, as sustained high oil prices dampen demand and encourage fuel switching where possible and modest use of liquid biofuels 2
Key findings in the IEO211 Reference case (continued) Increasing supplies of unconventional natural gas support growth in projected worldwide gas use. Global natural gas consumption grows by 1.6% per year, and projected natural gas use in 235 is 8 percent higher than in last year s outlook Worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise 43 percent between 28 and 235, reaching 43.2 billion metric tons in 235 3
Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 5 28 Projections 482 4 Non-OECD 3 2 26 244 OECD 288 1 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 4
China and India account for about half of the world increase in energy use world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 4 Non-OECD Asia Other Non-OECD OECD Projections 3 2 1 199 2 28 215 225 235 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 5
Growth in income and population drive rising energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate increases in energy demand average annual change (28-235) percent per year 7 6 Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 U.S. OECD Europe Japan South Korea China India Brazil Middle East Africa Russia Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 6
Renewables are the fastest growing source of energy consumption world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 25 2 28 34% Liquids (including biofuels) Coal Projections 29% 27% 23% 15 1 5 28% 23% 1% 5% Natural gas Nuclear Renewables (excluding biofuels) 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 14% 7% Share of world total Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 7
Liquid fuels markets 8
Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily; the other cases represent a wide range of prices world oil price paths real 29 dollars per barrel 225 2 175 15 125 1 75 5 25 History 29 Projections High Oil Price case Reference case Low Oil Price case 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 9
Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the total supply of liquid fuels world liquids production million barrels per day 12 History 28 Projections 1 5% Unconventional 12% 8 OPEC conventional 4% 6 41% 4 2 55% Non-OPEC conventional 48% 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 1
Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East OPEC conventional production million barrels per day 18 16 28 235 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Saudi Arabia Iraq Iran Other Middle East OPEC Africa South America Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 11
Non-OPEC conventional supply growth comes mainly from Russia, United States, Brazil, and Kazakhstan Non-OPEC conventional production million barrels per day 14 28 235 12 1 8 6 4 2 Russia United States Brazil Kazakhstan OECD Europe Mexico Canada Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 12
Oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 7 percent of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels Unconventional production million barrels per day 6 28 235 5 4 3 2 1 Oil sands/bitumen Biofuels Extra-heavy oil Coal-to-liquids Gas-to-liquids Oil Shale Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 13
High and Low Oil Price cases reflect shifts in both demand and supply schedules relative to the Reference case worldwide liquids consumption and production in 235 million barrels per day 8 6 Reference case High Price case Low Price case 4 2 OECD Non-OECD Asia Rest of World OPEC conventional Non-OPEC conventional Unconventional Demand Supply Source: International Energy Outlook 211 14
Natural gas markets 15
Non-OECD nations account for 76% of the growth in natural gas consumption in the IEO211 Reference case world natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet History 12 Projections 1 OECD Non-OECD 1 83 8 6 49 55 56 57 66 62 68 4 37 37 39 2 199 2 28 215 225 235 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 16
The Middle East and non-oecd Asia account for the largest increases in natural gas production world natural gas production increment, 28-235 trillion cubic feet Middle East 15 Non-OECD Asia 12 Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia 1 Africa United States 6 7 Central and South America Australia/New Zealand 4 4 Canada 3 Other OECD -2-5.. 5. 1. 15. 2. Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 17
Initial assessment of shale gas resources in 48 major shale basins in 32 countries indicates a large potential Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 18
Estimates of technically recoverable shale gas resources in the 48 shale gas basins that were recently assessed Continent Technically Recoverable (trillion cubic feet) North America Canada, Mexico 1,69 Africa Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Mauritania, Western Sahara, South Africa 1,42 Asia China, India, Pakistan 1,44 Australia 396 Europe South America France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, U.K., Poland, Lithuania, Kaliningrad, Ukraine, Turkey Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay 624 1,225 19
Unconventional gas is an increasingly important component of supply, not only for the U.S., but also China and Canada natural gas production trillion cubic feet 3 2 Unconventional (tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane) 1 28 235 28 235 28 235 China Canada United States Conventional (all other gas) Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 2
Electricity markets 21
Renewables and natural gas are fastest growing, but coal still fuels the largest share of the world s electricity in 235 world electricity generation by fuel trillion kilowatthours 4 History Projections 3 Coal 2 Natural gas 1 199 2 28 215 225 235 Nuclear Hydropower Other renewables Liquids Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 22
China accounts for nearly three-quarters of the world increase in coal-fired generation coal-fired generation trillion kilowatthours 8 History Projections United States China Non-OECD Asia (excluding China) Rest of world 6 4 2 199 2 28 215 225 235 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 23
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions 24
Non-OECD Asia accounts for almost 75% of the world increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons 25 History Projections OECD Other Non-OECD Non-OECD Asia 2 15 1 5 199 2 28 215 225 235 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 25
Coal continues to account for the largest share of carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons History 28 Projections 5 4 3 2 Coal Liquids 1 Natural gas 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 211 26
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