Drought Vulnerability Index Agricultural University of Athens Hellas Christos A. Karavitis Stavros Alexandris Vassilia Fassouli Dimitris Tsesmelis Dimitris Stamatakos Nikos Skondras AUA Hellas
Assessment Methodology
Definition of Drought A creeping phenomenon, a non-event Operational definitions attempt to demarcate the severity, onset and termination point of droughts Conceptual definitions attempt to identify the boundaries of the drought event AUA Hellas
Copyright 2004 National Drought Mitigation Center
Water Deficiencies
Drought a usually unexpected and unpredicted time period of abnormal dryness which affects water supply" (Grigg, N.S., 1988). The state of adverse and wide spread hydrological, environmental, social and economic impacts due to less than generally anticipated water quantities (Karavitis, 1992) AUA Hellas
Social and Economic Drought / Water resources Engineering Gap between supply and demand of economic goods such as water, food, raw materials, hydroelectric power, transportation depends on the time and space processes of supply and demand Social Stresses Economic impacts AUA Hellas
VULNERABILITY AUA Hellas [a] [b] [c] [d] Fragile Physical Environment = environmental degradation = lack of ecosystem resilience = history of extreme hydrological events Fragile Economy = economic inequalities/disparities = inadequate funding Lack of Local Institutions = lack of social resilience = poor social protection = marginalization = capacity for recuperability Lack of Preparedness = inadequate warning systems = lack of training = lack of community mobilization
DROUGHT FORECASTING Statistical predictions: based on lagged relationships between regional meteorological patterns (i.e. rainfall) and actual data. Probabilistic predictions: by trying to estimate the mathematical probability of a given phenomenon in a certain time frame based usually on analysis of time series data. Deterministic predictions: which attempt to model important features of the existing system and provide a basis for contingency analysis through simulation AUA Hellas
Percentage of rain days with rain more than 20 mm from 1891 to 2004 over Athens (NOA) Percentage of number of days with precipitation > 20 mm 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 AUA Hellas Years
Percentage of rain days with rain more than 30 mm from 1891 to 2004 over Athens (NOA) Percentage of number of days with precipitation > 30 mm 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Years AUA Hellas
Percentage of rain days with rain more than 50 mm from 1891 to 2004 over Athens (NOA) Percentage of number of days with precipitation > 50 mm 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Years AUA Hellas
Percent area affected by drought (PDSI) AUA Hellas Cook et al., 2004
Why are Drought Contingency Policies Needed? Prevailing crisis management attitude Natural Hazards Emergency Response Procedures Protocols for Processes and Procedures Create a wider menu of options and alternatives AUA Hellas
Drought vulnerability is a variable. Within every society, there is a certain capacity to cope with drought. Probability P (x) Coping range Societal changes can increase or decrease this coping range. Drought Flooding AUA Hellas X (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, etc.) Adapted from work by Barry Smit, University of Guelph
TECHNOLOGIES FOR WATER RECYCLING AND REUSE IN LATIN AMERICA CONTENT: ASSESSMENT, DECISION TOOLS AND IMPLEMENTABLE STRATEGIES UNDER AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE http://www.coroado-project.eu project.eu Coordinator: Ass. Prof. Christos A. Karavitis Agricultural University of Athens E-mail: ckaravitis@aua.gr AUA Hellas
Methodological Framework Drought Impact database Impact assessment-resilience Vulnerability assessment Vulnerability visualization AUA Hellas
Interdependencies of Impacts Drought induced Changes of Water Quality and Water Quantity Ecology Ecological State Economy Use Value of Water Health Society Ecological Continuity Costs of Water Supply Conflicts Damage to animal species Damage to plant communities Other economic effects Quality of Live Demand for Evaluation Criteria (Indicators, Indices) AUA Hellas
Primary Meteorological, Agricultural or Hydrological Drought Indices Percent of Normal Deciles Palmer Drought Index PDSI, PHDI, CMI Surface Water Supply Index Standardized Precipitation Index (PSI) Vegetation indices (NDVI, VCI, SVI) U.S. Drought Monitor Composite index approach AUA Hellas
From V. Yevyevich and E. Vlachos, 1983; C. A. Karavitis and N.S.. Grigg, 1992, 1999
TOOLBOX FOR SUPPLY MANAGEMENT RESPONSES
TOOLBOX FOR DEMAND MANAGEMENT RESPONSES
TOOLBOX FOR IMPACT MINIMIZATION RESPONSES
Synoptic table on mitigation practices applied in drought periods SEE Drought Impacts Policy Action Countries Supply Enhancement Demand Reduction Impact Minimization infrastucture Slovenia Drainage systems Irrigation Retention of snow infrastructure Reservoirs, dams etc Tillage Establishment of the windbreak maintance needs Greece Reservoirs, dams etc No irrigation possible in drought periods Crisis management FYROM Improvement of the existing maintenance procedures, conservation, groundwater use, and emergency water hauling by ships Public information campaign on water conservation, rationing water WD -WS = DEFICIT COST Announcement of master plan 2008 new dams construction Albania AUA Hellas
Feedback.
The relation between DVI components and drought aspects
Components: 1. SPI 6 and SPI 12 Agricultural and non agricultural use 2. Supply and Demand Description of Supply capacity and demand coverage 3.. Impacts Description of loses due to Supply Demand deficits 4.. Infrastructure Level of deficiency AUA Hellas
Steps 1. SPI 6 and SPI 12 calculation and Kriging 2. Supply and Demand Data 3.. Impact Data 4.. Infrastructure Data on the Level of deficiency 5. Index Calculation 6. Index Visualization AUA Hellas
Components Classification Vulneraility Level SCALES SPI Supply Demand Impact Infrastructure Less Vulnerable 0 Wet 1,50 0 No Deficits 0 No Deficits 0 None 0 Complete Vulnerable 1 Quite Wet 0 to 1,49 1 15% Deficits 1 15% Deficits 1 15% Losses 1 15% Deficiency Highly Vulnerable 2 Quite Dry 0 to -1,49 2 16-50% Deficits 2 16-50% Deficits 2 16-50% Losses 2 16-50% Deficiency Extremely Vulnerable 3 Dry -1,50 3 >50% Serious Deficits 3 >50% Serious Deficits 3 >50% Losses 3 >50% Deficiency AUA Hellas
Index Classification
Index Visualization
Questions?
Thank you for your attention AUA Hellas