Role of clean energy in the context of Paris Agreement Peter Janoska, Energy Analyst, IEA COP 23, Bonn, 15 November 2017 IEA
The IEA works around the world to support an accelerated clean energy transitions that is enabled by real-world SOLUTIONS supported by ANALYSIS and built on DATA IEA 2017
Global CO 2 emissions flat for 3 years an emerging trend? Gt 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Global energy-related CO 2 emissions 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 IEA analysis shows that global CO 2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a row, even though the global economy grew, led by emission declines in the US and China.
How far can technology take us? GtCO 2 40 Reference Technology Scenario RTS 30 20 10 Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO 2 reductions Global CO 2 reductions by technology area 2 degrees Scenario 2DS Beyond 2 degrees Scenario B2DS Efficiency 34% 40% Efficiency 40% Renewables Renewables 15% 35% 35% Fuel switching Fuel 5% switching 18% 5% Nuclear 6% Nuclear CCS 14% 1% 6% Gt CO 2 cumulative reductions in 2060 0 200 400 0 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 CCS 32% 14% Pushing energy technology to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 could meet the mid-point of the range of ambitions expressed in Paris
The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised Solar PV and onshore wind Energy storage On track Electric vehicles Nuclear Transport Fuel economy of light-duty vehicles Energy-intensive industrial processes Accelerated improvement needed Lighting, appliances and building equipment More efficient coal-fired power Carbon capture and storage Building construction Not on track Transport biofuels Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, but many technologies still need a strong push to achieve their full potential and deliver a sustainable energy future.
Can we push up the low-carbon power deployment pace? Average capacity additions in different periods in the B2DS 2030-2060 2017-2030 Last year Last Decade 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 GW per year Fossil CCS (Incl.BECCS) Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV Other renewables Recent successes in solar and wind will have to be extended to all low-carbon solutions, and brought to a scale never experienced before.
Indicators of energy system transformation: Power sector example 600 Global fleet average and new-build plants emissions intensity of power generation in IEA scenarios gco 2 /kwh 500 400 300 200 Energy Efficiency 12% Electricity Networks 14% Thermal Power 7% Power Generation 23% Coal 4% Historic 2DS average 2DS new build 100 Oil & Gas 46% 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 The average carbon intensity of new power capacity needs be at around 100 grammes of CO 2 per kilowatt hour (gco 2 /kwh) in 2025 and close to zero gco 2 /kwh by 2050, requiring further steep reduction.
The future is electric Global final electricity demand Change in final electricity demand in 2060 50 000 8 000 40 000 30 000 Statistics RTS 2DS B2DS 6 000 4 000 2 000 Transport Agriculture TWh TWh 0 Services 20 000-2 000 Residential -4 000 Industry 10 000-6 000 0 1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060-8 000 2DS vs RTS B2DS vs 2DS Electricity becomes on a global level the largest final energy carrier in the 2DS and B2DS, with the electricity share in final energy use more than doubling compared to today, up to 41% in the B2DS in 2060.
The fuel mix to generate electricity is vastly different to today 100% 80% Electricity mix 60% 40% 20% 0% RTS 2DS B2DS 2014 2060 Fossil w/o CCS Fossil with CCS Nuclear Bioenergy with CCS Renewables The average carbon intensity of power generation falls from around 520 gco 2 /kwh today to Below zero in the B2DS
Nuclear additions need to double current rate to meet 2DS contributions Capacity additions and reactors under construction 2016 saw the highest nuclear capacity additions since 1990, but new construction starts down sharply
Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost Global clean energy RD&D spending Top 3 IT company R&D spenders USD (2016) billion 40 30 20 10 0 Mission Innovation 2012 2015 2021 Private Public Top 3 firms Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, Global RD&D spending in efficiency, coming renewables, mostly from nuclear governments. and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, Mission Innovation coming could mostly provide from a much governments. needed boost.
Tap all the potential: Complementary public and private RD&D is needed Venture Capital investment breakdown for 2016 Energy efficiency (except transport) CCS Solar Wind Geothermal Bioenergy Transport Hydro and marine Nuclear Hydrogen and fuel cells Energy storage Other IEA member country spending in 2016 Public and private sector invest in different type of innovation. Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, Public spending supports technologies that are further from the market or have high development and demonstration coming mostly from governments. costs, including nuclear, CCS and ocean energy.
Conclusions Early signs point to changes in energy trajectories, helped by policies and technologies, but progress is too slow An integrated systems approach considering all technology options must be implemented now to accelerate progress Each country should define its own transition path and scale-up its RD&D and deployment support accordingly Achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 would require unprecedented technology policies and investments Innovation can deliver, but needs long term technology investment prioritisation across both public and private sectors
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