Bobby Nolan, Conor Gilson, Elena Peng, Zining Ji

Content Industry Analysis The Economics of Airbnb Pricing Strategies Recommendations

Hotel Industry: Mature Market Def: hotels, motor hotels, and resort hotels (exclude hotels with attached casinos) Services: short-term lodging, food and beverage services, recreational services, conference room and convention services, laundry services, parking and other services. 2017 s revenue $182.4 billion (New Zealand GDP 2016: ~$180 billion) Profit: $30.3 billion 77.4% of the revenue comes directly from guest room rentals 79,225 businesses in the market Source: IBISWorld

Hotel Industry: Competitive Market CR4 = 43.9% HHI = 632.39 Source: IBISWorld

Hotel Industry: Growing Market Hotels industry is highly susceptible to changes in the global economic environment, Corporate Profit, Consumer Spending, Travel spending Domestic and international travel rates From 2012 to 2017, Economy Hotel industry annual revenue growth rate: (2016 US GDP growth rate: 1.6%) 4.4% The industry is forecasted to continue expanding in the next 5 years. Source: IBISWorld

Barriers to Entry: High Capital Intensity Source: IBISWorld

The Rising of Airbnb: A Brief Introduction An online marketplace and hospitality service, enabling people to lease or rent short-term lodging including vacation rentals, apartment rentals, homestays, hostel beds, or hotel rooms. --Wikipedia 2008 -- Founded @ San Francisco 3 million+ listings in 65,000+ cities and 191 countries -- current scale (Marriott International ~1.1 million rooms/listings, Hilton Worldwide 774,000) $2.8 billion -- Airbnb s sales revenue 2017 ~ ($8.5 billion by 2020)

$30 Billion ~ Hilton Worldwide ($23.33 billion) + Hyatt ($6.87 billion) = $30.2 billion

Is Airbnb stealing customers from traditional hotels? It is estimated that hotels lose about $450 million in direct revenues per year to Airbnb.

Airbnb s Competitors

Also, Don t Forget About...

Firms to Reach a $10b Market Capitalization Using Disruptive Economics Source: Brady Capital Research Inc.

Economics Behind Airbnb How is Airbnb Able to Create Value in such a Competitive Market? Long Tail of Supply: Achieved through the Network Effect, Airbnb has been able to generate listings in 191 countries by providing the marketplace structure and user base needed to create a new market. Blue Ocean of Demand: Concept that involves creating a new demand curve based on entrance into a new market with no competition. In the case of airbnb, this demand was created by altering the competitive boundaries within the hotel industry through the idea of a collaborative economy.

Economics Behind Airbnb

Evolution of Trust in a Digital Era Don t Talk to Strangers Tinder, Facebook Don t Get in a Stranger s Car Uber, Lyft Don t Answer the Door for Strangers Airbnb, HomeAway

Evolution of Trust in a Digital Era Rachel Botsman is a researcher and economist who is looking to define the meaning of trust in a collaborative economy. Human beings are remarkable at taking trust leaps. Do you remember the first time you put your credit card details into a website? That's a trust leap.

How Airbnb Uses Trust to Fuel Supply and Demand User Generated Reviews 5 Star System Guest Reviews the Host After Stay Host Reviews the Guest After Stay Incentives are Aligned High Review Ratings are Highly Valuable for Both Parties in Future Transactions.

Power of User Ratings: Uber Leaked Uber Driver Rating Data Average Rating Requirement: 4.8 2-3% of All Drivers are at Risk Downsides to Rating Requirement Asymmetry Between User and Driver User May Not Realize the Importance of Driver Rating Fairness of Only Using 1 Rating Input Source: Business Insider

Pricing Strategy How the price is related to The service fee The purchasing power in different cities The distance between the listing and the major scenic spot The security deposit/ cleaning fee The cancellation policy

Service Fees For Hosts: Hosts are charged 3% of the subtotal for the listing (before fees and taxes) For Guests: Guest Service Fees are typically 6-12% but can be higher or lower depending on the specifics of the reservation. The higher the subtotal, the lower the percentage so you can save money when booking large reservations. -airbnb.com

Service Fees Two Sided Markets - Markets in which one or several platforms enable interactions between end-users and try to get the two sides on board by appropriately charging each side. - Pricing of each side is largely determined by the relative magnitude of cross-side network effects (Metcalfe s Law) and the price sensitivities of the user sides

Service Fees Guest Service Fees are typically 6-12% but can be higher or lower depending on the specifics of the reservation. The higher the subtotal, the lower the percentage so you can save money when booking large reservations. -airbnb.com

Purchasing Power by City Does Airbnb s host side network generate average listing prices in each city that reflect the relative purchasing power? Purchasing Power Measure: Regional Price Parities (RPPs), expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level (equal to 100), measure the differences in the price levels of goods and services across areas for a given year. If an area s RPP is greater than 100, it means that goods and services are more expensive than the national average; if an area s RPP is less than 100, goods and services are less expensive than the national average. - The Bureau of Labor Statistics

Purchasing Power by City Although the percent differences in price per night across cities strays, the general trend of average listing price follows the RPPs

cheap medium expensive Los Angeles

cheap medium expensive Chicago

cheap medium expensive Washington DC

Insights The listings that locate near the major scenic spots/downtown usually have fewer bedrooms, whereas listings farther are more likely to be entire houses. The area that close to the major scenic spots/ within downtown is the most competitive. (with more hotels which are direct competitors) The higher maintenance fee in more popular area makes the host s elasticity higher. ( e.g the high rental fee)

Security Deposit The higher the price, the less likely there is a security deposit. For cheaper listings, there is more customer flow, which make more likely to be damaged For expensive listings, both hosts and customers are more cautious with selection. More trust is built.

Cleaning fee There s a positive relationship between cleaning fee and listing s price. For the hosts, the cleaning fee reflects an important part of cost for the host to run a listing. People who choose a more expensive listing will be less sensitive to that additional cost (Second-degree price discrimination)

Cancellation Policy Flexible: Full refund 1 day prior to arrival Moderate: Full refund 5 day prior to arrival Strict: 50% refund up until 1 week prior to arrival Super strict 30 days: 50% refund up until 30 days prior to arrival Super strict 60 days: 50% refund up until 60 days prior to arrival Boston Los Angeles

Boston Los Angeles Key takeaway: Many owners choose more than flexible cancellation policy. There s a trend that more expensive listings choose stricter cancellation policy Without overbooking, airbnb hosts do require compensation for customer s not showing up

Recommendation Review System -- Create Thresholds -- Build Trust Price anchoring -- Reference price -- Pleasure of getting a good deal Transportation -- Compare to hotels with shuttles -- Add as a perk For Users --The best deal is near the peripherals of major city centers

Questions?