Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model Challenges and Opportunities Peter J. Singhofen, P.E. Streamline Technologies, Inc. psinghofen@icpr4.com
Part 1 Florida is Different 2 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Most watershed tools assume but Florida looks like this! Source: Al Karlin, SWFWMD 3 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
8 miles 28 sq.mi. 0.60% slope 14 miles 34 sq.mi. 0.05% slope TEXAS FLORIDA 4 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
2D Overland Flow in ICPR4 Finite Volume Method Double Mesh Flexible Triangular Mesh: Lump Momentum Equations Along Edges Honeycomb Mesh: Lump Mass Balance Equations 5 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
TEXAS TEXAS HONEYCOMB 6 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
FLORIDA HONEYCOMB 7 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
17,100 cfs 460 cfs 11.2 Rainfall in 24 hours Poor Soils in both Watersheds 8 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Maximum Depths (> 6 ) 27.3 ft 0.5 ft 9 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Maximum Depths (> 6 ) 7.7 ft 0.5 ft 10 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Part 2 Primary Challenges 1. Storage & Groundwater 2. Leakage 3. Man-Made Alterations 4. Tidal Considerations 5. Hysteresis Effect 11 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #1: Storage & Groundwater 1 km 2 cells 12 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #1: Storage & Groundwater 13 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #1: Storage & Groundwater 14 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #1: Storage & Groundwater 15 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #1: Storage & Groundwater 16 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #1: Storage & Groundwater 17 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #2: Leakage Putnam County, FL 21.6 sq.mi. Part of St. Johns River Basin 18 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #2: Leakage ICPR4 Model >150 pot hole depressions Leakage critical factor in water balance Spatiotemporal boundary condition of Floridan Aquifer based on SJRWMD MODFLOW modeling (240 DEMs) 19 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #2: Leakage Statistical Metric Targets Coefficient of Determination (R 2 ): Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency (NSE): 0.7 or higher 0.5 or higher Primary Calibration Parameters Leakage Fillable Porosity 20 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Lake R 2 (1) NSE (1) R 2 (2) NSE (2) R 2 (3) NSE (3) Challenge #5: Leakage Broward 0.77 0.60 0.89 0.88 0.90 0.82 Como 0.77 0.73 0.78 0.75 0.93 0.83 Crystal 0.74 0.64 0.74 0.59 0.85 0.65 Echo 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.66 0.93 0.84 Estella 0.64 0.54 0.60 0.56 0.71 0.70 Howell 0.68 0.57 0.64 0.68 0.73 0.80 Lizzie 0.53-0.18 0.54-0.05 0.84 0.80 Little Como 0.71 0.46 0.73 0.48 0.88 0.83 Little Mall 0.22-1.10 0.34-0.07 0.72 0.20 Margaret 0.79 0.72 0.75 0.77 0.76 0.77 North Como 0.21-0.39 0.21 0.20 0.65 0.77 Palmer 0.28 0.13 0.39 0.36 0.71 0.57 Prior 0.62-0.06 0.64 0.18 0.85 0.84 Silver 0.48 0.13 0.52 0.44 0.70 0.67 South Como 0.58 0.56 0.64 0.56 0.91 0.88 Tarhoe 0.60 0.19 0.64 0.54 0.80 0.91 Trone 0.64 0.67 0.65 0.68 0.89 0.93 21 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #2: Leakage R 2 = 0.89 NSE = 0.82 22 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #2: Leakage R 2 = 0.94 NSE = 0.94 23 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #2: Leakage R 2 = 0.90 NSE = 0.91 24 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #3: Man-Made Alterations Econlockhatchee River 1 km 2 cells 25 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #3: Man-Made Alterations Attenuation Pond Connection to Next Pond Treatment Pond & Control Structure 26 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #3: Man-Made Alterations Pipe Channel Node Bridge Catchment Areas ICPR4 Model Control Structure 27 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #4: Tidal Considerations Water Surface Profile 100-Year 24-Hour Storm Bayside Gulfside 28 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #4: Tidal Considerations Old Port Tampa St. Petersburg 29 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #4: Tidal Considerations USGS 02308861 Cross Bayou Canal at Cedar Brk Dr Peak Rainfall Hermine Peak Surge Model Old Port Tampa Tide Gage (Bayside Boundary) 30 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Challenge #5: Hysteresis Pinebrook Canal USGS Gage 02308870 Flow & Stage Cross Bayou USGS Gage 02308861 Stage Only 31 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Pinebrook Canal USGS Gage 02308870 Verification Event (06/21/2012 06/30/2012) ICPR4 R 2 = 0.975 NSE = 0.974 USGS 32 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Pinebrook Canal USGS Gage 02308870 Rating Curve & 100-Year 24-Hour Simulation ICPR4 Simulation (St. Venant Eq.) USGS Rating Curve (Manning s Eq.) USGS Field Measured Flows 33 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Cross Bayou USGS Gage 02308870 Rating Curve & 100-Year 24-Hour Simulation 600 cfs 6.2 7.8 34 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
< 1 > 3 1-2 2-3 35 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Banned from the Florida Hydrologist s Lexicon Muskingum Routing Kinematic Routing Modified Puls Method Dendritic is on Probation 36 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Part 3 Opportunities (Florida is Data Rich) 37 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Extensive infrastructure inventories and models available throughout the state, including hundreds of ICPR models. Orange County ICPR watershed models Completed SWFWMD floodplain mapping (mostly with ICPR models) 38 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Key Features 1D/2D Surface Hydraulics Can ICPR be used as a hyper-resolution model and incorporated into the NWM? How do we make this happen? 2D Groundwater Flexible Computational Meshes Single Event and Continuous Simulation Soil Moisture Accounting Distributed Hydrology Multi-Core Processing 39 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Three Key Modifications 1. Access and use NWM rainfall and climatological data as forcing function for forecasting 2. Serve up results that can become forecast products (elevation and flow data) 3. Port to Linux environment for super-computing power 40 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
#1 NWM Forcing Data Anclote River Watershed 113 square miles 41 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
NEXRAD 2-KM 2 GRID (Source for Rainfall & ET Data: Text Files) nexrad_id.txt 42 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
NWM 1-KM 2 GRID (WRF-Hydro Forcing Engine) (Source for Rainfall & ET Data: IP Address?) nwm_id: IP address 43 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Intersect NWM Grid with Catchments, Soils, Land Use 44 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Which steps of the NWM model chain can be accomplished by hyper-resolution model? Source: Maidment 45 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
#2. Serving Results up to NWM: Stages and flows are available at every node and link for every user specified output increment Anclote River 46 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Current Approach in NWM: Does not account for hysteresis effect 1. Forecast discharge with National Water Model 2. Convert discharge to depth using rating curve 3. Convert depth to inundation using HAND Source: Maidment 47 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Elevation Data Send this data to HAND??? Anclote River Node N1544 (West) 48 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Anclote River Flow Data is also Available Node N1544 (West) 49 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
#3. Port ICPR to Linux and Parallelize Collaboration with Dr. Venkatesh Merwade to implement ICPR on HPC facilities at Purdue in Linux environment Target completion date is late Spring or Early Summer 2017 50 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Cypress Creek Basin (129 sq. mi.) 3 Models Maintained by Separate Organizations Trout Creek Basin (35 sq. mi.) New River Basin (121 sq. mi.) 51 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Hydraulic Links Used for 2-Way Coupling 52 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
2-Way Coupling Links National Water Model Cypress Creek Local Work Station Trout Creek Local Work Station New River Local Work Station HPC Cypress Creek Computational Node Trout Creek Computational Node New River Computational Node 53 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model
Thank you! Let s talk psinghofen@icpr4.com 54 2016, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model