European forest sector carbon - future role of forest resource projections Gert-Jan Nabuurs Helsinki 16 March 06
Estimates for European forests Early inventory based assessments Recent advancements Future challenges
C sink in European forests/biosphere Carbon sink (Gt C a -1 ; positive sign: sink) -0.6-0.4-0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 Forest and woody biomass (IPCC) (1) Land use change and forestry (IPCC) (1) Biomass (Inventory) (2) Biomass+Harvest+Residues (Inventory) Forest stand (Eddy flux) (2) (3) European Community Forest stand (Eddy flux) (4) Biomass+Soil (C pools) (5) Soil only (C pools) (5) Trees (Inventory) (6) Biomass (Inventory) Biomass+Harvest+Residues (Inventory) (2) (2) West and Central Europe Biomass (Inventory) (7) European Continent Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model) (8) Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model) Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model) Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model) (11) (9) (10) Dolman et al. 2002 (1) EEA/ETC Air Emissions 1999; (2) Kauppi and Tomppo 1993; (3) Martin 1998; (4) Martin et al. 1998; (5) Schulze et al. 2000; (6) Nabuurs et al. 1997; (7) Kauppi et al. 1992; (8) Bousquet et al. 1999; (9) Kaminski et al. 1999; (10) Rayner et al. 1997; (11) Ciais et al. 1995
3. The methods Flux (Pg C ) 1 fig4_eurasia European historical balance (own paper) 0.5 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998-0.5 Historic land use change Eddy flux Mesoscale -1 modelling -1.5 Inverse modelling Agr statistics Biome models? Proces models Forest inventories Remote sensing Experiments Soil monitoring
Early inventory based assessments
Early assessments (late eighties early nineties ) Simple, still very different Various compartments included Confusion over NPP, NEP, NBP static conversion of stemwood volume to aboveground biomass Often soil neglected
Development of user friendly tools CO2FIX, GORCAM, CASMOFOR, FULLCAM From mid nineties onwards Comparison of managed with unmanaged forest C balance 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1 51 101 151 201 251 Carbon stock (tonne C/ha) emission reduction 350 w ood products 300 Soil Biomass 250 200 150 100 50 0 1 50 97 146 193 241 289 337 385 Time (yr) unmanaged managed
Methods: C balancing on the From simple assessments to upscaling basis of forest inventories Late nineties - 2000 From single stand to Europe temporal variation is displayed as spatial variation 10 55000 ha Net carbon sink or source (Mg C ha-1 yr-1) (neg = source to atm) 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 -60 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1 ha stand time (yr) 143 million ha Karjalainen et al.
Semi-dynamic temporal studies European forest sector carbon balance 1950 1999 0.170 Tree Biomass Components of the total forest sector sink (Pg C y -1 ) 0.120 0.070 0.020-0.030 Coarse woody debris Forest floor Mineral soil Wood Products Total 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 (Nabuurs et al. 2003)
;;;; Projecting the C balance Early 2000 s 14000 12000 10000 Area (1000 ha) 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 100-110 110-120 120-130 130-140 140-150 150-160 160-170 170-180 180-190 190-200 200-210 210-220 220-230 230-240 240-250 250-260 260-270 270-280 280-290 290-300 Age class reserves Age class distribution European forests 1990 and 2050; large scale management models provide insight in drivers of the C balance (Nabuurs 2001) NBP per region (Karjalainen et al. 2003) ;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;; ;;;;; ;;;;; ;;
Converging estimates of the land C sink Janssens et al. Science 300
Recent advances Camels (2001 2005) Carbo invent (2001 2005) National systems (2004 present) Carbo Europe IP (2004-2009) ADAM (2006-2008)
CAMELS: integration of methods 32500 800 35000 1200 32000 700 34000 1000 Total Carbon stock AG+BG (g/m2) 31500 31000 30500 30000 29500 29000 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 annual atm flux (g/m2) Total Carbon stock AG+BG (g/m2) 33000 32000 31000 30000 29000 28000 800 600 400 200 0 annual atm flux (g/m2) 28500 25% Age Class distribution -100 27000 35% Age Class distribution -200 20% 28000-200 1 14 27 40 53 66 79 92 105 118 131 144 157 170 183 196 209 222 235 248 261 15% 274 287 300 313 326 339 352 365 378 391 years 10% 5% 0% 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80+ 30% 26000 25% -400 1 14 27 40 53 66 79 92 105 118 131 144 157 170 183 196 209 222 235 248 261 20% 274 287 300 313 326 339 352 365 378 391 years 15% 10% 5% 0% 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80+
CAMELS: integration of methods CarbonCycleDataAssimilationSystem (CCDAS) Misfit to observations Atmospheric Transport Model: TM2 Biosphere Model: BETHY Misfit 1 CO 2 station concentration Fluxes Model parameter Forward Modeling: Parameters > Misfit Inverse Modeling: Parameter optimization FAPAR Gobron et al.
2003 drought: Ciais et al. 2005
Carbo invent progress in inventory based assessment of biomass and soil C stock and fluxes Integration of bottom up and top down
Carbo invent Biomass expansion factors (Lehtonen et al) Uncertainty analysis (peltoniemi et al)
Carbo invent Mineral soil C content 0-50 cm O layer C content
Applications of previously mentioned material: Potential for bio energy Ecologically constrained energy potential from forest residues Meyer, Lindner et al, EFI for EEA 1200 PJ in 2010 ~ 18 Mt C
National systems LULUCF Lead to progress in insights (e.g. programme of today) Highly variable between countries JRC has harmonisation task for the EU reasonably harmonised on forest biomass Worse on soils, Non CO2 GHG s Worse on LUC
future challenges:
policy discussion is moving on: adaptation and mitigation while Europe lacks multi sectoral econometric analyses of future carbon sequestration needed.. multi scale forest resource analyses, with econometrics, land use changes & trade multi functionality: carbon-water-biodiv: integrated land use analyses
;;;; An outline and ideas ;;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;; ;;;;; ;;; Land Use/cover Biomass Productivity Scenario s Ancillary Cost / Technology data Integrated land use & econometrics Carbon supply curves
8 variables from 160,000 inventory plots Role of resource projections ;;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;; ;;;;;;; ;;;;;;; ;;;;;;; ;;;;; ;;;;; ;;;;; ;;;;; ;;; ;;; ;;; ;;; ;;; ; ; ; ;
Making better use of GIS material
Linking single tree models to upscaling exercises
Possible results High resolution C balance, Carbo Europe IP Carbon supply curves US EPA, Murray et al.
Conclusion.. Large progress has been made over past decade Policy arena is moving on Still many processes are barely understood In both directions research should continue: a) understanding the processes, and b ) integrated, multi scale analyses
Thank you!