TF HTAP Workshop, 2 April 29, St Petersburg, Russia Assessment of POPs Transport Overview of TF HTAP POP model intercomparison Alexey Gusev Meteorological Synthesizing Centre East of EMEP www.msceast.org
Outline TF HTAP intercomparison of POP models Emission data for the intercomparison Comparison of participated models results Further experiments and analysis Concluding remarks
TF HTAP intercomparison of POP models General aims of the study: Get insight about importance and uncertainties of POP intercontinental transport Assess response to emission reduction in different regions Investigate the effect of future POP emissions changes Examine the influence of climate change Specific features of POPs: Persistence, partitioning, re-emission, Wide range of physical-chemical properties Sensitivity to variations of content of other compounds (radicals, aerosols)
TF HTAP intercomparison of POP models Participated models: MSCE-POP (EMEP/) BETR-Global (ETH, Switzerland) SimpleBox (RIVM, Netherlands) GEM / POPs (Environment Canada, Canada) GCIEMS (NIES, Japan)
TF HTAP intercomparison of POP models Selected POPs: PCB-153, PCB-28, PCB-18 a-hch Half-lives of selected POPs in different media (days) PCB-28 PCB-153 PCB-18 a-hch Atmosphere 1 7 11 8 Soil 42 23 42 14 Seawater 23 23 23 14
Annual PCB emission, t/y Emissions Global inventory of PCB emissions for 193-21 (Breivik et al., 27) Gridded emissions for 22 PCB congeners including PCB-28, PCB-153, PCB-18 PCB-153 emission for 21, t/y 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 Years 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Variations of annual PCB emission during 193-21
TF HTAP intercomparison of POP models Source-receptor experiments: Reference year 21 Base case run with all emission sources for 21 Spin-up model run with historic emissions Perturbation runs with 2% reduction of emissions in 4 source regions: Europe and North Africa South Asia East Asia North America
TF HTAP intercomparison of POP models : Europe and North Africa - EU EA South Asia SA Eastern Asia EA North America NA NA AR EU SA Arctic region - AR
TF HTAP intercomparison of POP models Current stage of analysis of modeling results: Base case simulations for PCB-153 Perturbation simulations - response of PCB-153 air concentrations and deposition to 2% emission reduction in different regions
Base case run results (MSCE-POP) PCB-153 air concentrations, pg/m 3 PCB-153 net deposition, g/km 2 /y Results of model simulations for 21 including model spin-up using historic PCB emissions
Deposition decrease, % Perturbation runs results (MSCE-POP) Effect of 2% emission reduction in EU region on PCB-153 deposition in selected regions EA 1 NA AR EU SA 8 6 4 2 Source /Receptor regions Intercontinental transport of PCB-153 essentially effects pollution levels in other regions of the northern hemisphere
Air conc decrease, % Air conc decrease, % Air conc decrease, % Air conc decrease, % Comparison of MSCE-POP, BETR-Global, and SimpleBox modelling results Changes in PCB-153 air concentrations 14 12 1 8 6 2% emission reduction in NA region BETR-Global SimpleBox MSCE-POP 2 15 1 2% emission reduction in EU region BETR-Global SimpleBox MSCE-POP 4 2 5 12 1 8 6 4 2 2% emission reduction in SA region BETR-Global SimpleBox MSCE-POP 2% emission reduction in EA region Response to 2% reduction of PCB-153 emissions in different regions 12 1 8 6 4 2 BETR-Global SimpleBox MSCE-POP
Deposition decrease, % Deposition decrease, % Deposition decrease, % Deposition decrease, % Comparison of MSCE-POP, BETR-Global, and SimpleBox modelling results Changes in annual PCB-153 deposition 2% emission reduction in NA region 2% emission reduction in EU region 2 15 1 BETR-Global SimpleBox MSCE-POP 2 15 1 BETR-Global SimpleBox MSCE-POP 5 5 12 1 8 6 4 2 2% emission reduction in SA region BETR-Global SimpleBox MSCE-POP 2% emission reduction in SA region Response to 2% reduction of PCB-153 emissions in different regions 8 6 4 2 BETR-Global SimpleBox MSCE-POP
Further experiments and analysis within HTAP POP model intercomparison Perturbation runs with normalized regional emission changes (equal to 1% of global emission) Examine sensitivity to POP peculiarities and wide range of their physical-chemical properties Evaluate sensitivity to variations of content of other atmospheric compounds (radicals, aerosols) Investigate influence of climate change and future emission changes on POP intercontinental transport
Computed Comparison of measured and modelled concentrations (MSCE-POP) Location of sites measuring PCBs 1 1 1 4 1/4.1.1 1 1 1 Observed Annual mean air concentrations of PCB-153, pg/m 3 Agreement between modeled and observed PCB-153 air concentrations is within a factor of 3-4
Global model development Testing of atmospheric transport module of GLEMOS model within the TF HTAP tracer experiment CO tracer surface concentration MSC-W GLEMOS GLEMOS Jul, 15, 12: Global EMEP multi-media modelling system (GLEMOS) will permit to evaluate POP transport and S-R relationships on global scale
Concluding remarks Modeling results indicate that intercontinental transport essentially effects POP pollution levels in different regions The models show rather close predictions of changes of PCB-153 concentrations and deposition due to 2% reduction of emissions in different regions Further experiments and analysis of POP intercomparison results can consider the effect of POP peculiarities, variations of radicals and aerosol content, climate change, and future emission changes Contribute the results of HTAP POP intercomparison study to the Assessment Report 21 Preparation of a scientific paper on the basis of POP model intercomparison results and their analysis