IMAGE model and Roads from Rio+20: pathways to achieve global sustainability goals in 2050 Detlef van Vuuren, Tom Kram, Ellke Stehfest, Marcel Kok, Paul Lucas, Annegerdien Prins, Stefan van Esch, Maurits van den Berg, Michiel Jeuken and others
Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment IAM with earth system focus 26 world regions/ detailed grid Description of GEC and possible response strategies Mostly used for: Climate change mitigation (e.g RCPs, EU-Commission) Global environmental change scenarios (GEO, MEA, Agassessment) Land use scenarios 2
PBL report Roads from Rio Model-based analysis of the possibilities of achieving multiple sustainable development goals simultaneously in 2050. Targeted at the Rio+20 summit but even more relevant now Roads from Rio In cooperation with IIASA : Global Energy Assessment UNEP : Global Environmental Outlook OECD : OECD Environmental Outlook SEI : Energy for Shared Development Rio+20, 30mei 2012
How did we analyse this? Focused on internationally agreed upon objectives Sustainable Short-term implications goals Model analysis (integrated assessment); three alternative paths history Challenge Expected trend Transformative action Combined with focus on governance Integrated scenarios for land, biodiversity, energy, land, water and nutrients time Rio+20, 30 mei 2012
Climate change Principle 5 : eradicating poverty: Full access in 2050 modern energy, food water Improve health Principle 6 : conserve Earth's ecosystem. Climate change 2 o C Reduce air pollution to WHO guideline levels Stop degradation of ecosystems after 2025 Reduce nitrogen unbalance Reduce water stress Biodiversity loss Nitrogen 02-1 5 1-20 11
Rio+20, 15 mei 2012 Issues and linkages included in the analysis
Little progress in the past Reduction of absolute poverty But for a number of key areas, little progress/further detoriation Rio+20, 15 mei 2012
Little progress in achieving sustainable development goals With continuation of current policies, no breakthrough expected Prevent dangerous climate change Eridicate hunger Protect Ecosystems Rio+20, 15 mei 2012
Characterisation of three pathways Pathway Global Technology Decentralised Solutions Consumption change Main assumptions Large-scale, technologically optimal solutions; intesive agriculture, international coordination Local energy production, multi-functional agriculture, local policies Dietary change, less energy-intensive lifestyle, further pressure released through technology Rio+20, 15 mei 2012
The land challenge Ensuring access to food for all while preventing biodiversity loss beyond the 2025 level TFDO Rio+20, 19 januari 2012
Technical potential exists. Food and biodiversity Different pathways can be chosen Key elements: Rio+20, 15 mei 2012 Increase agr. Prod. significantly Mitigate climate change Manage negative impacts of infrastructure Protect ecological hotspots Control consumption
Global nitrogen surplus Our best scenarios keep nitrogen surplus at 2000 level, despite dietary changes and additional n- specific measures. Rio+20, 15 mei 2012
The energy challenge Ensuring access to energy for all while staying within the 2 deg C emissions budget, restricting bio-energy use under sustainabiliy criteria and staying within WHO guidelines for air pollution. TFDO Rio+20, 19 januari 2012
No fundamental trade-off between poverty reduction and environmental protection 50% fuel subsidy and microfinance for stoves reduces this to 1.2 billion people; target difficult to reach Full access to modern energy à Hardly any increase in emissions (possibly less GHG) Full access to foodà hardly any increase in food production. Rio+20, 30 mei 2012
Technical potential exists energy and climate Reaching 2 o C target and achieving other energy targets is possible; additional costs ~1-2% of GDP Key elements: Energy savings Non-CO2 Carbon-free electricity Energy access Rio+20, 15 mei 2012
Bringing it all together TFDO Rio+20, 19 januari 2012
Transformative action needed!! Improvement of Carbon intensity Improvement of Agriculture efficiency Rio+20, 30 mei 2012
Implications for water stress Rio+20, 15 mei 2012
Implications for health Rio+20, 15 mei 2012
Interactions! Eridicate hunger Access to water Access to energy Clean energy Climate mitigation Conserve biodiversity Eridicate hunger Access to water Synergy Access to energy Mixed Clean energy Trade-off Climate mitigation Halting Biodiversity Loss 20 20
Some conclusions Studies show that these objectives can be reached by transformative changes (given the assumptions we made on political support), but. Most significant challenges seem to be related to governance. Important synergies / trade-offs Model-based scenario analysis was shown to be an extremely effective tool in linking across time, scale and issues.
Current 2050 study I think the study can have unique characteristics Multi-institute / multi-model SDGs as framework (provides direct set of goals) Direct network to users Important to ensure a structure that is consistent with these characteristics Relationships with SSPs? Rio+20, 15 mei 2012
Thank you for your attention! Products: Summary report /Full report (http://www.pbl.nl/en/node/55488) Interactive website (app) (http:// roadsfromrio.pbl.nl/) Movie with interviews with experts (http:// www.pbl.nl/en/roadsfromrio/videos/roads-from-rio) App with the report (I-store - Roads from Rio) Rio+20, 15 mei 2012
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL: Netherlands agency, but with long-standing experience in assessment of international sustainable development problems Current project in cooperation with UNEP : Global Environmental Outlook OECD : OECD Environmental Outlook IIASA : Global Energy Assessment SEI : Energy for shared development report PBL project multiple products: Summary report (http://www.pbl.nl/en/node/55488) Full report Interactive website (app) (http://roadsfromrio.pbl.nl/) Movie with interviews with experts (http://www.pbl.nl/en/roadsfromrio/videos/roads-from-rio)
The pathways (land/biodiversity) Consumption Change Global Technology Decentralised Solutions Access to food Reduced inequity Trend Reduced inequity Trade Trend Liberalization Trend Consumption Ceiling to meat consumption per capita Trend Trend Waste Reduced by 50% - - Productivity of agriculture (compared to trend, 205) 15% > crop yield increase 30% > crop yield increase 15% > livestock yields 20% > increase in crop yields 15% > livestock yields Allocation of agriculture/ nature Trend Segregated Intertwined Protected areas 17% (each of 65 biomes) 17% (each of 7 realms) 17% (each of 779 ecoregions) Infrastructure Expansion constant after 2030 Trend Expansion constant after 2030 Forestry Reduced Impact Logging Forest plantations supply 50% of global timber demand in 2050 25 March 11, 2015
Change in agriculture consumption Considerable increase in demand, driven by population and income. Eridicating hunger could be done with very little impact on overall consumption levels Rio+20, 15 mei 2012
Rio+20, 15 mei 2012
The main barriers are related to governance - No single, integrated vision of where to go - Short-term interests tend to have priority - Parties have different interests - Policies are often fragmented - Society lacks a clear stimulus in preferred direction - Strong international system is lacking as well. Rio+20, 30 mei 2012
Scenarios of key importance as connection between research communities Facilitates large research community by: - Providing input to scientific papers (comparability) - Enabling synthesis à assessment report WG3 Community: Scenarios provide insight into socio-economic development, emissions, climate targets in order to determine mitigation effort Updates needed : new insights into historic/near term forcers. new requirements models new questions WG2 Community: : Scenarios provide insight into socio-economic development (vulnerability) and climate change (impacts) Common scenarios WG1 community Scenario provide insight into plausible development of forcers and plausible climate futures
Scenarios as mean to link communities (SSP process) SSPs For example, future quality of ecological goods and services Exposed population, ability to adapt RCPs Climate Impact Drivers (population, GDP) Energy use, Land use Emissions Conc./ forcing Climate/ Environmental change
The Scenario Matrix Architecture SSPs Forcing level (W/m 2 ) 8.5 6.0 4.5 Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 RCPs SSP5 Climate 2.6
Challenge to mitigation Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5 Challenge to adaptation
Challenge to mitigation SSP5: Conventional dev. Rapid technology for fossil High demand High ec. Growth Low population SSP1:Sustainability Rapid technology High environmental Awareness Low energy demand Medium-high economic growth Low population SSP2: Middle of the Road Challenge to adaptation SSP3: Fragmentation Slow technology Development (dev-ing) Reduced trade V. Slow ec. growth Very high population SSP4: Inequality Slow technology High inequality Low energy demand Slow economic growth High population
Rio+20, 15 mei 2012 Van Vuuren, D.P. et al 2012.. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities. Global Environmental Change
Model AIM Asia Integrated Model GCAM Global Change Assessment Model Home Institution National Institutes for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba Japan Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL, College Park, MD IMAGE The Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bildhoven, The Netherlands MESSAGE-GLOBIOM Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact REMIND-MAgPIE Regionalized Model of Investments and Technological Development WITCH World Induced Technical Change Hybrid model International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Laxenburg, Austria Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research; Potsdam, Germany Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy 35
SPAs Technology NEW SSP Pop & GDP 2100 Population [billion] (IIASA) 2100 GDP [trillion 2005 USD, PPP] (OECD) Energy Service Demands End-Use Technology SSP1 Sustainability SSP2 Middle of the Road SSP3 Fragmentation SSP4 Inequality SSP5 Development First Low (5 th ) Middle (3 rd ) High (1 st ) Middle (2 nd ) Low (4 th ) High (2 nd ) Middle (3 rd ) Low (5 th ) Low/middle (4 th ) Very high (1 st ) Low Medium High Medium High High Medium Low Low / High Medium Nuclear / CCS Low Medium Medium Mixed Medium Renewable Technology Fossil Fuel Extraction Crop Yield Improvement Accession to Carbon Market Coverage of Carbon Tax High Medium Low High Medium Low Medium High Medium High High Medium Low Low / Medium High All Instantaneous Delayed Delayed Delayed Delayed Universal Universal Fragmented Fragmented Universal
13000 12000 SSP Emissions Driver Assumptions IIASA NCAR 11000 10000 9000 8000 SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5 7000 6000 Lutz & KC, 2014 Jiang & O Neill
Income (generated by OECD)
EJ 2500 2000 1500 1000 Other renewables Nuclear Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Gas Biomass Oil Coal Biomass SSP5 (Fossil-fueled growth) EJ 2500 2000 1500 1000 Other renewables Nuclear Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Gas Biomass Oil Coal Biomass SSP3 (Regional rivalry) EJ 2500 Other renewables 500 Nuclear Gas Nuclear 2000 Oil Coal Gas 0 Biomass 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Reference Cases EJ 2500 2000 1500 1000 Other renewables Nuclear Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Gas Biomass Oil Coal Biomass 1500 1000 500 Other renewables Oil Coal Biomass SSP2 (Middle of the road) 0 2000 Coal 1850 1900 1950 2000 Gas 2050 2100 SSP1 (Sustainability) EJ 500 2500 1500 1000 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Biomass Other renewables Nuclear Oil Coal Biomass Primary Energy SSP4 (Inequality) 500 500 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Time-line - Population/GDP data is out. - Storylines of SSPs have been established and published (would be updated over time) - Quantitative elaboration of SSP by IAMs (energy, emissions, land use, food consumption, climate change) likely to become available in March for review - Scenarios final around May. - Will be used in CMIP6 starting from 2016 Rio+20, 30 mei 2012