OVERVIEW OF THE SOLAR POWER MARKET IN THE GCC DR. RAED BKAYRAT VP BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT MIDDLE EAST PLASTICON 2017, Dubai April 10 th, 2017
11 April 2017 UAE beats renewables cost hurdle with world s cheapest price for solar energy The National, Jan 18, 2015 2
11 April 2017 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR SOLAR PV GTM Research Graph 3
11 April 2017 GLOBAL PV DEMAND FORECASTS Annual Global PV Installations (GW) +7.9% +2.5% -7.0% 77.3 73.7 69.7 68.6 28.3 30.5 26.5 17.0 13.7 13.9 14.6 12.6 8.0 9.5 8.7 8.9 8.9 5.8 5.8 4.5 11.8 12.9 12.9 16.0 +16.5% +3.6% +6.4% 79.3 75.2 72.9 25.3 23.5 16.8 11.1 12.0 11.6 6.3 8.4 6.5 10.1 9.9 9.4 19.0 19.3 22.3 82.1 20.9 13.4 7.5 10.9 24.6 87.6 19.5 12.5 6.0 8.9 31.3 Higher than expected demand in India most firms revised forecasts upwards 81.1 17.5 14.1 3.9 10.9 27.0 90.5 21.1 17.0 6.7 12.4 28.0 93.2 18.2 17.0 3.0 11.6 34.8 97.3 21.2 18.1 6.0 14.1 32.0 China United States Japan India UK Germany Brazil Mexico Chile Rest of World GTM IHS BNEF GTM IHS BNEF GTM IHS BNEF GTM IHS GTM IHS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 GTM forecasts a slowdown in total global demand from 2016-17, while IHS and BNEF both see growth; all forecast growth resuming into 2018, driven notably by India and other emerging markets Source: GTM, Q4 2016 Global Demand Monitor (November 2016); IHS, PV Demand Market Tracker Q4 2016 (December 2016); IHS, Emerging PV Markets Tracker Q4 2016 (December 2016); and BNEF, Q4 2016 Global PV Market Outlook (November 2016). 4
11 April 2017 GCC: RECORD BREAKING GROWTH Jordan 320 250 Kuwait 80 1200 UAE 2000 500 2 GW = in progress 2 GW = tendered in 2017 Egypt 1800 250 Saudi Arabia 62 300 MESIA Annual Report 2016 5
MIDDLE EAST: REGIONAL PRESENCE
11 April 2017 FIRST SOLAR: A TRACK RECORD OF EXCELLENCE 1st to break $1/watt cost barrier 1st to produce 1GW in single year First Solar the 1 st to produce 1GW per year First Solar contracted to build the 13MWac first phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai, UAE First Solar selected to build the 52.5MWac Shams Ma an project in Ma an, Jordan First Solar selected to supply modules for the 260MWdc second phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai, UAE 10GW of global installed capacity 21.5% cell efficiency record 18.2% module efficiency record 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Developed world s largest contracted solar project pipeline ( 3GW+) Facilitated financing for ~2GW (representing ~$9bn) First Solar selected to supply 5MWdc modules for the pilot Masdar City PV power plant in Abu Dhabi, UAE First Solar completes the 13MWdc first phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai, UAE First Solar completes a 800kWdc pilot diesel-hybrid plant in Al Jouf, Saudi Arabia 7
GLOBAL TRACK RECORD
TOPAZ SOLAR FARM Largest investment grade renewable bond in history 9 Copyright 2015, First Solar, Inc.
Copyright 2015, First Solar, Inc. COPPER MOUNTAIN 1 Co-located with existing gas combined cycle power plant 10
Copyright 2015, First Solar, Inc. DEWA SOLAR PLANT 1 st phase of landmark 1GW Solar Park in the UAE 11
11 April 2017 SHAMS MA AN Accounts for 1% of Jordan s electricity generation capacity. 12
PATH TO SUSTAINABLE CHEMISTRY
RENEWABLY POWER MULTIPLE FACILITIES WITH A SINGLE SOLAR PROJECT USING A VIRTUAL PPA 11 April 2017 Example of a Virtual PPA: Virtual PPA overview Corporate covers difference between fixed-price from solar plant and variable price in the wholesale market, enabling the solar plant to get longterm financing Corporate continues to buy retail power from the utility at their facilities 16 facilities consuming: 1 solar power plant generating Key benefits Efficient: single transaction gets all facilities to 100% renewably powered Economies of scale: large solar plant = low cost Energy hedge: Fixed-price solar power may act as a hedge against future power cost volatility. 500 GWh/year 180 MW 500 GWh/year 14
11 April 2017 GET TO 100% RENEWABLY POWERED GLOBALLY Large-scale, off-site renewable energy corporate procurement market snapshot USA 5 6 GW 1 to date Largest market currently Multiple contracting options, depending on region Europe 1.5 GW 1 to date (mostly wind in UK and Scandinavia) Solar historically supported by FiT; several countries transitioning to auction-based PPAs Japan Limited GW 1 to date Lucrative FiT supports solar Corporate opportunity as investor in FiT facilities Mexico ~0.5 GW 1 to date Previous self-consumption tariff enabled corporate PPAs New direct access tariff expected Q4 2016 India Limited GW 1 to date Bilateral PPAs possible through Open Access mechanism Tariffs/costs vary by state South America Limited GW 1 to date Brazil, Chile and Argentina all have, or will release soon, tariffs enabling bilateral contracts 1. Gigawatts of large-scale, off-site corporate PPAs Rest of World Limited GW 1 to date Mostly vertically-integrated utilities, limited contracting mechanisms Custom solutions negotiated with utility Australia Limited GW 1 to date Offsite opportunities structured through retail energy providers 15
11 April 2017 MITIGATE ENERGY COST VOLATILITY Electricity prices can be volatile o Driven by fuel commodity volatility and supply/demand imbalances o Extent of volatility seen by customer depends on market exposure of retail tariff A long-term renewable PPA can hedge electricity price volatility Historical electricity price Net electricity price, with solar hedge o Effectiveness of hedge depends on correlation between wholesale prices at solar plant location and retail prices at corporate facilities locations o Retail tariff can be structured with utility to provide an effective hedge 2013 2018 2023 2028 16
CREATE VALUE WITH A LONG-TERM PPA, NET METERING OR WHEELING SCHEMES 11 April 2017 Though uncertain, power prices are generally forecast to increase A long-term renewable PPA can save on energy costs when future power prices increase Power price forecast - High scenario Power price forecast - Low scenario Solar PPA price Savings High scenario Savings Low scenario 2018 2023 2028 2033 Quite frankly, we are doing this because it is right to do, but you may also be interested to know that it s good financially to do it. We expect to have a very significant savings because we have a fixed price for the renewable energy, and there s quite a difference between that price and the price of the brown energy. - Tim Cook, Apple CEO Source: Clicking Clean: A Guide to Building the Green Internet, Greenpeace, May 2015; http://www.imore.com/tim-cook-goldman-sachs-conference 17
11 April 2017 REGULATIONS AND BUSINESS MODELS VARY Virtual PPA / Contract for Differences (CfD) Solar plant Renewable generation side Spot power sales or QF PPA Corporate facility load side Wholesale market Utility load Retail tariff Contract for differences so solar plant gets fixed $/MWh revenue Wheeling model Solar plant Utility load Energy X Energy Y Net metering Co-located with load Solar plant Self Consumption load 18
PV MODULE MANUFACTURING
11 April 2017 PV MODULE AND MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY First Solar Fully Integrated, Automated and Continuous Thin Film Process Glass In < 2.5 Hours Module Out Semiconductor Deposition Cell Definition Final Assembly and Test 98-99% reduction in semiconductor material Fully integrated, continuous process vs. batch processing Large 60 x 120cm (2' x 4') substrate vs. 6" wafers Conventional Crystalline Silicon Batch Technology Polysilicon Ingot Wafer Solar Cell Solar Module 20
11 April 2017 COMPOSITION OF FIRST SOLAR MODULES Semiconductor layer is encapsulated between two protective sheets of glass Remains encapsulated when breakage or melting occurs Each module contains less than 14 grams CdTe CdTe is a stable and safe compound Melting point of 1041ºC Insoluble in water Will not chemically decompose 21
11 April 2017 COMPOSITION OF SI PV MODULES Sinovoltaics Group 22
ORGANIC PHOTOVOLTAICS (PLASTIC SOLAR CELLS)
STRUCTURE OF ORGANIC PV CELLS 11 April 2017 Trans-polyacetylene (t-pa) Polythiophene (PT) Polypyrrole (PPY) 24
11 April 2017 WHY ORGANIC PV CELLS Intrinsic Advantages: Ultra-low manufacturing Cost (Roll-to-Roll Productions, printing etc.) Bifacial & can be inverted. OPV absorbs light in a bulk, not at a discrete interface. Light Weight, flexible and rugged Color tunable & Semi - transparent Can be integrated into Roofs, Facades, Windows & Cars. Safer Environment Compatibility (thin cells) Organic Photovoltaics (OPV) Market 2017: Global Companies e.g. HELIATEK, MITSUBISHI Chemical, INFINITY PV, ARMOR Group & BELECTRIC (OPVIUS) HELIATEK sets new OPV world record efficiency of 13.2% 25
FLEXIBLE INTEGRATION OPTIONS FOR FACADES 11 April 2017 HELIATEK Successfully Implements Second Phase of BIOPV Pilot Project in Singapore 26
11 April 2017 IDEAL BIPV SOLUTION Taisei Corp s Zero Energy Building Walls mounted with Organic Solar cells. OPV Supplier- Mitsubishi Chemical Corp. 27