Gas and Oil Reliability Engineering Modeling and Analysis Dr. Eduardo Calixto ELSEVIER AMSTERDAM BOSTON HEIDELBERG LONDON NEW YORK OXFORD PARIS SAN DIEGO SAN FRANCISCO SINGAPORE SYDNEY TOKYO Gulf Professional Publishing is an imprint of Elsevier P
Contents Preface Acknowledgments xi xv 1. Life Cycle Analysis 1 1.1. Quantitative Failure Data Analysis 1 1.2. Probability Density Functions 12 1.2.1. Exponential PDF 19 1.2.2. Normal PDF 22 1.2.3. Logistic PDF 26 1.2.4. Lognormal PDF 27 1.2.5. Loglogistic PDF 31 1.2.6. Gumbel PDF 33 1.2.7. Weibull PDF 36 1.2.8. Gamma PDF 37 1.2.9. Generalized Gamma PDF 40 1.3. How to Define PDF Parameters and Choose Which PDF Fits Better with the Failure Data 43 1.3.1. Plot Method 45 1.3.2. Rank Regression 48 1.3.3. Maximum Likelihood Method 54 1.4. How Reliable Is the Reliability: The Confidence Bound Will Tell You 56 References 61 2. Accelerated Test and Reliability Growth Analysis Models 63 2.1. Introduction 63 2.2. Quantitative Accelerated Tests 64 2.2.1. Arrhenius Life-Stress Model 67 2.2.2. Eyring Life-Stress Model 71 2.2.3. Inverse Power Law Life-Stress Model 73 2.2.4. Temperature-Humidity Life-Stress Model 76 2.2.5. Thermal-Nonthermal Life-Stress Model 80 2.2.6. General Loglinear Life-Stress Model 84 2.2.7. Proportional Hazard Life-Stress Model 87 2.2.8. Cumulative Risk Life-Stress Model 90 2.3. Qualitative Accelerated Tests (HALT and HASS) 93 2.4. Reliability Growth Analysis 95 2.4.1. Duanne Model 96 2.4.2. Crow-Ansaa Model 98 vii
GUl) Contents 2.4.3. Lloyd-Lipow Model 103 2.4.4. Compertz Model 106 2.4.5. Logistic Model 109 2.4.6. Crow Extended Model 111 2.4.7. Power Law Model 115 References 117 3. Reliability and Maintenance 119 3.1. Introduction to Failure Mode Effects Analysis 119 3.1.1. Design Failure Mode Effects Analysis 123 3.1.2. Failure Mode Analysis: Process and Operational Applications 129 3.2. Reliability Centered on Maintenance 140 3.3. Risk-Based Inspection 3.4. ReBI 155 3.5. RGBI Analysis 159 3.6. ORT Analysis 162 References 166 4. Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability Analysis 169 4.1. Introduction to RAM Analysis 169 4.1.1. Scope Definition 171 150 4.1.2. Failure and Repair Data Analysis 172 4.1.3. Modeling and Simulation 175 4.1.4. Sensitivity Analysis 179 4.1.5. Conclusions and Reports 180 4.2. Modeling and Simulation 182 4.2.1. RBD Configuration 183 4.2.2. Markov Chain Methodology 188 4.2.3. Simulation 191 Performance Index 198 4.2.4. Reliability and Availability 4.3. Sensitivity Analysis: Redundancy Policies, Maintenance Plans, Stock Policies, and Logistics 206 4.3.1. Redundancy Policies 206 4.3.2. Maintenance Policies 211 4.3.3. A General Renovation Process: Kijima Models I and II 212 4.3.4. Stock Policies 215 4.3.5. Logistics 218 4.4. Improvement Allocation Based on Availability 223 4.5. Case Studies 228 4.5.1. Sensitivity Analysis in Critical Equipment: The Distillation Plant Case Study in the Brazilian Oil and Gas Industry 229 4.5.2. Systems Availability Enhancement Methodology: A Refinery Hydrotreating Unit Case Study 244 4.5.3. The Nonlinear Optimization Methodology Model: The Refinery Plant Availability Optimization Case Study 256
Contents C~j*_J) 4.5.4. CENPES II Project Reliability Analysis 269 4.5.5. The Operational Effects in Availability. Thermal Cracking Plant RAM Analysis Case Study 285 4.5.6. Partial Availability Based on System Age: The Drill Facility System Case Study 298 4.5.7. High-Performance System Requires Improvements? Compressor Optimum Replacement Time Case Study 316 4.5.8. RAM+L Analysis: Refinery Case Study 326 References 345 5. Human Reliability Analysis 349 5.1. Introduction 349 5.1.1. Human Reliability Concepts 351 5.2. Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction 355 5.3. Operator Action Tree 362 5.4. Accident Sequence Evaluation program 364 5.4.1. Pre-Accident Analysis Methodology 365 5.4.2. Post-Accident Analysis Methodology 373 5.5. Human Error Assessment Reduction Technique 376 5.6. Social Technical Analysis of Human Reliability 384 5.7. Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability 387 5.8. Bayesian Networks 394 5.9. Case Study 397 5.9.1. THERP Case Study Application 398 5.9.2. OAT Case Study Application 399 5.9.3. SPAR-H Case Study Application 401 5.9.4. HEART Case Study Application 404 5.9.5. STAH-R Case Study Application 406 5.9.6. Bayesian Network Application 411 5.9.7. Methodologies Similarities 416 5.9.8. Conclusion 417 References 418 6. Reliability and Safety Processes 421 6.1. Introduction 421 6.2. Fault Tree Analysis 426 6.2.1. Time Independent FTA 428 6.2.2. Time Dependent FTA 431 6.2.3. FTA as Qualitative Risk Analysis Support 435 6.2.4. FTA as a Root Cause Analysis Tool 437 6.3. Event Tree Analysis 438 6.3.1. Time Independent Event Tree Analysis 439 6.3.2. Time Dependent ETA 441 6.4. Layers of Protection Analysis 444 6.4.1. Independent Time LOPA 446 6.4.2. Time Dependent LOPA 447
CED Contents 6.4.3. Time Dependent LOPA as Qualitative Risk Analysis Support 448 6.5. Safety Integrity Level Analysis 450 6.5.1. Hazard Matrix Methodology 455 6.5.2. Risk Graph Methodology 459 6.5.3. Frequency Target Methodology 460 6.5.4. Individual and Societal Risk Methodology 462 6.5.5. Quantitative Approach to Defining Probability of Failure on Demand 463 6.6. Bow Tie Analysis 466 6.6.1. Time Independent Bow Tie Analysis 468 6.6.2. Time Dependent Bow Tie Analysis 470 6.7. Case Study 1: Applying LOPA Analysis to Decide Whether Risk Is Acceptable When Layers of Protection Are Not Available 476 6.8. Case Study 2: Using RAMS Analysis Methodology to Measure Safety Process Effects on System Availability 484 6.8.1. Safety Processes 486 6.8.2. RAM Analysis Case Study 487 6.8.3. Conclusions 495 References 495 7. Reliability Management 497 7.1. Reliability Management over the Enterprise Life Cycle 499 7.2. Reliability Management Success Factors 501 7.3. Successful Reliability Engineering Implementation Case Study 505 7.3.1. Bayer 507 7.4. Successful Organization in Reliability Engineer Implementation 509 7.4.1. USNRC (United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission) 509 7.4.2. ESReDA (European Safety and Reliability and Data Association) 510 7.4.3. ESRA (European Safety and Reliability Association) 511 7.4.4. SINTEF (Stiftelsen for Industriell og Teknisk Forskning) 511 7.5. Reliability Engineer Teaching and Research: Successful Universities and Research Center Cases 512 7.5.1. Karlsruhe Institute Technology 512 7.5.2. Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur 514 7.5.3. University of Strathclyde Business School 515 7.5.4. University of Stavanger 516 7.6. Final Thoughts 516 References 518 Index 519