Cooperative Extension Service Economic Issues Feb. 2 EI-2 Agriculture s Contribution to Hawaii s Economy PingSun Leung 1, Khem R. Sharma 1, and Stuart T. Nakamoto 2 There is much debate on the size and importance of agriculture in Hawaii s economy. Estimates of agriculture s contributions vary significantly, depending on what is defined as agriculture and on the methodology used to develop those estimates. In this publication, we examine four methods of estimating agriculture s economic activity. First, the most common measure used historically in Hawaii has been the farmgate value of production agriculture. This has the advantage of being relatively easy to measure and readily available from statistics gathered by the state. However, it does not account for additional economic activity beyond the farm gate. Also, farmgate sales value does not provide a precise measure of the contribution of agriculture to the economy due to double-counting. For example, seeds purchased by vegetable growers are recorded as sales by the seed producers but are also reflected in the sales of the vegetable growers. To avoid the limitations of the farmgate value method, economists use the concept of value added to measure the contribution of an industry. Value added by an industry is defined as the sum of employee compensation, proprietary and other property income, and indirect business taxes. Summing the value added by all industries in an economy gives us the gross state product (GSP), a commonly accepted measure of the size of a state economy. Employment provides a third indicator for measuring the contribution of an industry to the economy. And fourth, economists often use economic input-output models to provide measures of linkages of an industry to the entire economy. This publication assesses the contribution of agriculture to Hawaii s economy by summarizing and comparing the four measures described above: farmgate sales, value added (or gross state product), employment, and linkages. Agriculture is defined to include production agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and agricultural services; agricultural input industries; and food and fiber processing (see Table 1). Value of production agriculture and fisheries by farmgate sales Figure 1 shows the trend of sales values of sugar, pineapple, other crops, livestock, and fisheries (i.e., aquaculture and marine fisheries) from 1982 to 1997. As shown in Figure 1 and Table 2, total sales of crops, livestock, and fisheries increased from $521 million in 1982 to $556 million in 1992. However, total crop and livestock sales declined slightly during the 15-year period from $57 million to $486 million. While total agricultural and fisheries sales did not change much, the composition of contributors to those sales changed drastically. Sugar sales declined from a share of 44.3% in 1982 to 15.4% in 1997. Pineapple declined slightly in sales to a share of 16.5% in 1997. Livestock sales also declined, its share decreasing to 12.2% in 1997. These declines are compensated for by a large increase in the value of other crops, such as seed crops, coffee, maca-damia nuts, fruits, vegetables, flowers, and nursery products, and fisheries production. 1 Dept. of Molecular Biosciences and Biosystems Engineering, 2 Dept. of Human Nutrition, Food, and Animal Sciences. Senior authorship is not assigned. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources or the University of Hawaii. The authors thank Dr. Xijun Tian, Hawaii Dept. of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, for constructive comments and Dale Evans for editorial assistance. Published by the College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources (CTAHR) and issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work, Acts of May 8 and June 3, 1914, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. H. Michael Harrington, Interim Director/Dean, Cooperative Extension Service/CTAHR, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822. An Equal Opportunity / Affirmative Action Institution providing programs and services to the people of Hawaii without regard to race, sex, age, religion, color, national origin, ancestry, disability, marital status, arrest and court record, sexual orientation, or veteran status. CTAHR publications can be found on the Web site <http://www2.ctahr.hawaii.edu> or ordered by calling 88-956-746 or sending e-mail to ctahrpub@hawaii.edu.
EI-2 Agriculture s Contribution to Hawaii s Economy CTAHR Feb. 2 Table 1. Sectors making up Hawaii agriculture. Sector number in Standard industrial 1992 Hawaii I-O table z Sector classification code Farm production and input sectors 1 1 Sugarcane 133 2 2 Vegetables 161 3 3 Tree nuts 173 4 4 Pineapple 179 5 5 Coffee 179 6 6 Other fruits Other 17 179 7 7 Flowers, ornamentals, and nursery plants 18 189 8 8 Dairy farm products 24 249 9 9 Poultry and eggs 25 259 1 1 Cattle and calves 211, 212 11 11 Hogs 213 12 12 Misc. livestock (goats, sheep, etc.) 214, Other 21 13 13 Aquaculture 273 14 14 Other agricultural products Other 1, 2 15 15 Forestry and forest products 811, 831 16 16 Commercial fishing 912 919 17 17 Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services 711 779, 851 18 18 Landscape and yard care services 78 789 19 Part of 48 Farm machinery and equipment 3523 2 Part of 49 Nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers 2873, 2874 21 Part of 49 Fertilizers, mixing only 2875 Food and fiber processing sectors 1 27 Pineapple processing Part of 23 238 2 28 Other canned vegetables and fruits 23 238 (except pineapple) 3 29 Sugar processing 261 263 4 3 Confectionery products 264 267 5 31 Salted and roasted nuts and roasted coffee 268, 295 6 32 Meat products 21 219 7 33 Milk products 221 229 8 34 Grain and bakery products 24 259 9 35 Beverages 28 289 1 36 Other food products and tobacco products Other 2, 21 11 Part of 37 Textiles 22 2399 z From The 1992 Hawaii state input-output study by K.R. Sharma, X. Tian, A. Peterson, S. Nakamoto, and P.S. Leung, 1997; CTAHR, Economic Issues no. 1, 1997 (also published as The Hawaii input-output study, 1992 benchmark report by the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, 1998). While these data show the trend of sales values of production agriculture and fisheries, comparable data are not readily available for the agricultural processing sector or total sales in the economy. Fortunately, data from the 1992 input-output model of the Hawaii economy provide a snapshot for comparison. In 1992, total farm production and input sectors (as defined in Table 1) amounted to $861.8 million, while food and fiber processing totaled $1,347 million. Together they made up 4.6% of the total sales in Hawaii s economy in 1992. 2
Cumulative percent of sales EI-2 Agriculture s Contribution to Hawaii s Economy CTAHR Feb. 2 Table 2. Sales by Hawaii s production agriculture and fisheries, 1982 1997. 1982 1987 1992 1997 Sales ($ x 1,) Total crops, livestock, and fisheries sales 52,647 584,39 582,743 556,86 Total crops and livestock 57,268 557,298 52,227 485,743 Total crops 428,86 469,565 431,958 418,16 Sugar 23,8 218, 153,7 85,5 Pineapple 94,364 99,286 12,1 91,721 Other crops 13,696 152,279 176,158 24,795 Livestock 78,48 87,733 88,269 67,727 Fisheries (aquaculture and marine fisheries) 13,379 26,741 62,516 7,343 Percent of total crops, livestock, and fisheries sales Total crops and livestock 97.4 95.4 89.3 87.4 Total crops 82.4 8.4 74.1 75.2 Sugar 44.3 37.3 26.4 15.4 Pineapple 18.1 17. 17.5 16.5 Other crops 19.9 26.1 3.2 43.3 Livestock 15.1 15. 15.1 12.2 Fisheries (aquaculture and marine fisheries) 2.6 4.6 1.7 12.6 Average annual growth rate (%) 1982 1987 1987 1992 1992 1997 1982 1997 Total crops, livestock, and fisheries sales 2.3..9.4 Total crops and livestock 1.9 1.4 1.4.3 Total crops 1.8 1.7.7.2 Sugar 1.1 6.8 11.1 6.4 Pineapple 1..6 2.1.2 Other crops 8. 3. 6.5 5.8 Livestock 2.3.1 5.2 1. Fisheries (aquaculture and marine fisheries) 14.9 18.5 2.4 11.7 Source: Hawaii Agricultural Statistics Service, Statistics of Hawaii Agriculture, various issues; Hawaii Dept. of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, The State of Hawaii Data Book, various issues. Figure 1. Proportion of sales contributing to Hawaii s production agriculture and fisheries, 1982 1997. 7 Total sales (left axis values) Sales, $ millions 6 5 4 3 2 Fisheries and aquaculture Livestock Pineapple Sugar 1 8 6 4 1 Other crops 2 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 3
T Agriculture and related gross product EI-2 Agriculture s Contribution to Hawaii s Economy CTAHR Feb. 2 Figure 2. Total and agricultural gross state products in Hawaii, 1982 1997 ($ millions). 4, 1, otal gross state product 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Hawaii total (left axis) Agriculture total Production agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and agricultural services Food and fiber processing 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Agriculture s contribution to the gross state product (GSP) As alluded to above, value added by each industry provides a precise indicator of the contribution of that industry to the economy, or each industry s contribution to GSP. The U.S. Department of Commerce s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) provides a consistent data series of the contribution of the various industry sectors to GSP. To account for inflation, a data series expressed in constant 1992 dollars is also made available by BEA. Figure 2 shows the trend of the contribution of agriculture and agricultural processing compared to total GSP since 1982, the earliest year that a consistent constantdollar series is available. Hawaii s economy as measured by total GSP increased steadily from 1982 to 199, when the economy became stagnant and even showed a slight decline. While Hawaii s economy increased about 2.3% annually for the 15-year period from 1982 to 1997, agriculture increased only.4% during the same period (see Table 3), and it has declined since 1987. The share of agriculture also declined, from 3.2% of the total GSP in 1982 to 2.4% in 1997. Table 3 shows that while agricultural processing decreased at an annual rate of 1% from 1982 to 1997, production agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services increased at an annual rate of 2%. The increase can be attributed to the large increase in agricultural services, forestry, and fisheries, which increased at an annual rate of 8.6% during the 15-year period. In 1982, agricultural services, forestry, and fisheries accounted for only.2% of GSP but have since increased to.5% of GSP. On the other hand, farm production decreased from 1.2% of GSP in 1982 to.8% in 1997. Similarly, agricultural processing decreased from 1.8% of GSP in 4
EI-2 Agriculture s Contribution to Hawaii s Economy CTAHR Feb. 2 Table 3. Agriculture s contribution to Hawaii s gross state product (GSP), 1982 1997. 1982 1987 1992 1997 GSP (millions of 1992 $) Total GSP 24,26 28,68 35,193 33,736 Total agriculture 77 927 89 823 Production agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and services 331 44 54 447 Farm production 281 344 31 275 Agricultural services, forestry, fisheries, and others 5 96 194 172 Food and fiber processing 439 487 386 376 Food and kindred products 398 42 317 297 Tobacco, textiles, and apparel 41 67 69 79 Percent of total GSP Total agriculture 3.2 3.3 2.5 2.4 Production agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and services 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.3 Farm production 1.2 1.2.9.8 Agricultural services, forestry, fisheries, and others.2.3.6.5 Food and fiber processing 1.8 1.7 1.1 1.1 Food and kindred products 1.7 1.5.9.9 Tobacco, textiles, and apparel.2.2.2.2 Average annual growth rate (%) 1982 1987 1987 1992 1992 1997 1982 1997 Total GSP 3.2 4.6.8 2.3 Total agriculture 3.8.8 1.6.4 Production agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and services 5.9 2.8 2.4 2. Farm production 4.1 2.1 2.4.1 Agricultural services, forestry, fisheries, and others 13.9 15.1 2.4 8.6 Food and fiber processing 2.1 4.5.5 1. Food and kindred products 1.1 5.5 1.3 1.9 Tobacco, textiles, and apparel 1.3.6 2.7 4.5 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. 1982 to 1.1% in 1997. Both the production agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services and the agricultural processing sectors declined from 1992 to 1997. Agriculture s contribution to employment Figure 3 shows that the trends in employment have been similar to the corresponding value added trends for the overall economy as well as the two agricultural sectors (production agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services, and agricultural processing). Total employment in the state increased at an annual rate of 1.8% from 568,185 jobs in 1982 to 744,564 jobs in 1997 (Table 4). However, total employment in agriculture decreased at an annual rate of.6% during that 15-year period. The decrease can be attributed primarily to decreases in the processing sector and on-farm production. Similar to the value added trend, employment for agricultural services, forestry, and fishing has increased significantly at an annual rate of 5%. In 1982, production agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services and agricultural processing contributed to almost 6% of total employment in Hawaii, but this contribution subsequently decreased, and in 1997 it was only 4.1%. Employment in agricultural processing decreased from 2.6% of total employment in 1982 to 1.3% in 1997. Similarly, on-farm employment also decreased from 2.4% in 1982 to 1.5% in 1997. These decreases in employment have been partially offset by the increase in employment in agricultural services, forestry, and fisheries, whose share increased from.8% in 1982 to 1.3% in 1997. In 1997, employment in agricultural services, forestry, and fisheries was almost as large as on-farm employment and exceeded the employment of agricultural processing. 5
T Agriculture and related employment EI-2 Agriculture s Contribution to Hawaii s Economy CTAHR Feb. 2 Table 4. Agriculture s contribution to employment in Hawaii, 1982 1997. 1982 1987 1992 1997 Employment (number of jobs) Total employment 568,185 647,186 754,552 744,564 Total agriculture 33,294 34,13 34,4 3,377 Production agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and services 18,623 2,889 22,776 2,928 Farm production 13,9 14,599 14,72 11,89 Agricultural services, forestry, fisheries, and others 4,723 6,29 8,74 9,839 Food, and fiber processing 14,671 13,241 11,228 9,449 Food and kindred products 11,41 9,595 8,552 6,684 Tobacco, textiles, and apparel 3,27 3,646 2,676 2,765 Percent of total employment Total agriculture 5.9 5.3 4.5 4.1 Production agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and services 3.3 3.2 3. 2.8 Farm production 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.5 Agricultural services, forestry, fisheries, and others.8 1. 1.2 1.3 Food, and fiber processing 2.6 2. 1.5 1.3 Food and kindred products 2. 1.5 1.1.9 Tobacco, textiles, and apparel.6.6.4.4 Average annual growth rate (%) 1982 1987 1987 1992 1992 1997 1982 1997 Total employment 2.6 3.1.3 1.8 Total agriculture.5.1 2.2.6 Production agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and services 2.3 1.7 1.7.8 Farm production 1..7 4.7 1.5 Agricultural services, forestry, fisheries, and others 5.9 6.7 2.5 5. Food, and fiber processing 2. 3.2 3.4 2.9 Food and kindred products 3.4 2.3 4.8 3.5 Tobacco, textiles, and apparel 2.2 6..7 1.1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Figure 3. Total and agricultural employment in Hawaii, 1982 1997 (number of jobs). 8, 7, 4, 35, otal Hawaii employment 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, Hawaii total (left axis) Agriculture total Production agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and agricultural services 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 1, Food and fiber processing 5, 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 6
EI-2 Agriculture s Contribution to Hawaii s Economy CTAHR Feb. 2 Table 5. The economic contribution of agriculture to Hawaii s economy, 1992. Percent of Hawaii s Measure Amount economy Output (business sales), $ million 2,91.1 6.1 Value added, $ million 1,416.6 4.6 Labor income, $ million 917.2 4.5 Employment, number of jobs 42,273 5.6 Linkages of production agriculture and agricultural processing to Hawaii s economy While the indicators discussed above measure the direct impact of agriculture and agricultural processing on the economy, they do not fully account for agriculture s linkages with other industries and the resulting economic activities generated. Production agriculture and agricultural processing need to be understood as primary industries in the economy that are vitally linked to other industries by producing outputs, purchasing inputs, and creating employment and income. These linkages can best be captured by an economic inputoutput model. Some argue that the food distribution system, including food retailing, wholesaling, warehousing, and transportation, exists to deliver the agricultural products to the final consumer and thus should be included as part of the total contribution of agriculture in the economy. The following paragraphs summarize the results of a recent study* that utilized the 1992 state input-output model and included portions of the trade and distribution sectors dealing with production from Hawaii agri *For details, see Accounting for the linkages of agriculture in Hawaii s economy with an input-output model: a final demand based approach by Khem R. Sharma, PingSun Leung, and Stuart T. Nakamoto, Annals of Regional Science 33:123 14, 1999. culture to arrive at the total contribution of agriculture using a final-demand approach. The final-demand approach is generally preferred by most economists in measuring the contribution of an industry using the input-output model because it alleviates the problem of double-counting. In 1992, the final demand for locally produced agricultural products and their trade margins was $1.98 billion, or nearly 4% of the total final demand in Hawaii of $37 billion. These values represent goods and services that were either exported from or consumed in the state. This final demand required a corresponding amount of business sales or output from throughout the economy to satisfy consumption and exports. In 1992, the final demand for agricultural products and their trade margins accounted for $2.91 billion of output or business sales in the entire economy (Table 5). This was 6.1% of the total sales by Hawaii s economic sectors ($47.55 billion). Final demand for agricultural products and related margins similarly accounted for $1.42 billion of value added, about $92 million of wages, salaries, and self-employment income, and 42,273 jobs. These were, respectively, 4.6% of total state value added, 4.5% of total state labor income, and 5.6% of the jobs statewide. (It should be noted that total GSP and employment as used in the 1992 input-output model differ from the BEA estimates due to different estimation methods.) Summary For 1992, estimates of the contribution of agriculture in Hawaii s economy range from 4.6% to 6.1% in terms of sales; 4.5% to 5.6% in terms of employment; and 2.5% to 4.6% in terms of value added. The higher values reflect the inclusion of the associated trade margins of locally produced agricultural products. Although similar estimates that include the trade margins are not available for 1997, it is safe to assume that they have declined slightly, as reflected by the general declining trends of sales, employment, and value added from 1992 to 1997 (Tables 3 and 4). Despite the recent demise of sugar, production agriculture, forestry, fisheries, agricultural services, and agricultural processing remain vital contributors to Hawaii s economy by providing a diversity of products and generating jobs and incomes. 7