Potential for CCS in India: Opportunities and Barriers Pradeep Kumar Dadhich Senior Fellow, TERI, New Delhi, India Presented United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs : Expert Group Meeting on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage and Sustainable Development Venue: Two U.N. Plaza, DC2-222, 222, New York, NY 117 1
Outline Overview of India s s Energy Sector GHG mitigation potential Scenario Analysis Cost implications CCS potential Barriers to CCS Conclusions 2
Domestic coal availability Fuels 21 236 Coking coal (million tonnes) 27 5 Non-coking coal (million tonnes) 299 55 Lignite (million tonnes) 25 5 3
Natural gas availability Natural Gas availability (MMSCMD) 26 211 216 221 226 Domestic availability 84 123 125 125 125 LNG import 25 65 95 125 135 Transnational Pipelines Iran-Pakistan-India 3 9 9 9 Myanmar-India 3 3 3 Total imports 25 95 215 245 255 Total 19 218 34 37 38 4
End-Use Consumption Sectoral Energy Consumption (23-4) Commercial 9% Agriculture 8% Residential 13% Non-energy uses 13% Transport 17% Industry 4% Industry sector contributes about 25 % of India's GDP for the year 22-3 3 Industry sector is the largest consumer of commercial energy in Indian economy (4% share of commercial energy during 23-4) 4) Seven energy intensive industries: Iron and Steel, Cement, Aluminium, Fertilizer, Pulp and Paper, Fertilizers, Cotton textile, Chlor-alkali are analyzed in details Accounts of more than 6% of commercial energy consumption of industry sector. Major industries are already moving towards energy efficiency path Iron and steel: Average SEC of integrated steel plants is reduced from 9.29 Gcal/tsc in 199-91 to 7.28 Gcal/tcs in 24-5 (22% reduction) Cement: Specific heat consumption of clinker production is reduced from 13-16 kcal/kg in 195-6s to 665-8 kcal/kg of clinker at present Average SEC of ammonia production is reduced from 13.7 Gcal/tonne in 1985-86 to 9.3 Gcal/tonnes in 22-3 (32% reduction) 5
(mtoe) 25 2 15 1 5 Total Primary Commercial Energy Energy use in BAU 21 26 211 216 221 226 231 Year Requirement Solar +w ind Nuclear Hydro (large +small) Natural Gas Oil Coal Total primary commercial energy increases 7.5 times 21 to 231(285 mtoe to 2123 mtoe) (CAGR: 6.9%) Share of traditional fuels to total primary energy consumption decreases by 35% to 4% (in year 21 to 231) Coal and Oil remains the dominant fuels Share of Coal: 55% in 231 Share of Oil: 36% in 231 Share of hydro in total commercial supply is only 2% in 231 6
mtoe 25 2 15 1 5 27% Energy Security: High Import Time trend of Import dependency 42% 527 75 285 222 66 63% 146 Dependency 1688 8% 21 211 221 231 Year Import Consumption Import Dependency 2123 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Fuel Import in 231 Coal import: 1438 MT ~4 times of consumption in 21 Import dependency: 78% Oil import: 68 MT Import dependency: 93% Gas import: 93 BCM Import dependency: 67% Maximum indigenous production levels for all fuels is achieved by the year 216 7
Sectoral Commercial Energy Consumption Sectorw ise Commercial Energy Consumption in BAU Trends of Sectoral Shares in Final Energy Consumption (including non-commercial) (mtoe) 18 15 12 9 6 ( %) 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 45% 9% 37% 14% 27% 18% 2% 21% 16% 23% 13% 11% 24% 25% 3 3% 2% 4% 44% 49% 53% 56% 58% 6% 21 26 211 216 221 226 231 Year Industry Transport Residential Agriculture Commercial 1% % 21 26 211 216 221 226 231 Year Industry Transport Residential Agriculture Commercial Commercial energy consumption from the end-use side increases 7.5 times (in 21-231) (CAGR: 7%) Share of residential sector in total final energy (including non-commercial energy) consumption decreases due to shift towards more efficient commercial fuels The highest growth rate in oil consumption in the transport sector increases by 13.6 times (CAGR: 9%) Shift towards more energy intensive modes of transportations both for passenger and freight movement 8
Electricity Generation Capacity GW 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Generation Capacity 795 158 441 137 116 216 125 118 466 69 31 14 27 74 1 175 21 211 221 231 Year Coal Natural Gas Hydro Nuclear Renew able Diesel Total Total installed capacity increases by 6.34 times (CGAR: 6.3%) Coal based capacity will remain dominant (59% in 231) followed by hydro (2%) Decentralized capacity will contribute 19% of the total generation capacity by 231 Total installed capacity in 231: 795 GW (Draft Integrated Energy Policy: 778 GW, Ministry of Power: 962 GW) 9
Scenarios Analysis 1
Economy-Wide Scenarios Socio-Economic Technology-Deployment BAU scenario - 8% GDP growth rate (BAU) Low-growth scenario- 6.7% GDP growth rate (LG) High-growth scenario-1% GDP growth rate (HG) BAU scenario (BAU) High-nuclear capacity (NUC) Aggressive renewable energy (REN) High-Efficiency scenario (EFF) Hybrid scenario (8% GDP) (HYB) High hybrid scenario (1% GDP) (HHYB) 11
( mtoe) 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 285 285 Total Primary Commercial Energy 45 Total Commercial Primary Energy Supply 544 76 187 Requirement 1576 3351 232 2123 153 21 26 211 216 221 226 231 236 Year LG BAU REN NUC EFF HYB HG HHYB 131 62 Increase in primary energy by 231 7.5 times (BAU) 5.3 times (Hybrid) 11.8 times (High growth) 8.2 times (High growth hybrid) Energy consumption in hybrid scenario (8% GDP) is even less than that in low growth scenario (6.7% GDP) Difference in commercial energy consumption Between BAU and Hybrid in 231 is double the total commercial energy consumption in 21 Between High-growth and Highgrowth hybrid in 231 is 3.6 times the total commercial energy consumption in 21 12
Fuel wise Total Commercial Energy Supply (mtoe) 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Commercial Energy supply in 231 4 136 1152 41 4 131 136 79 757 41 136 484 28 1176 1364 767 BAU HYB HG HHYB Difference in commercial energy consumption by 231 in hybrid scenario vis-à-vis BAU: 62 mtoe, high growth vis-à-vis Difference in coal consumption 49 mtoe (1.4 times of total commercial energy consumption in 21) Difference in Oil consumption 273 mtoe (96% of total commercial energy consumption in 21) Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydro Nuclear Solar, w ind and Biodiesel Difference in commercial energy consumption by 231 in hybrid scenario vis-à-vis BAU: 131 mtoe Difference in coal consumption 645 mtoe (2.3 times of total commercial energy consumption in 21) Difference in Oil consumption 444 mtoe (1.6 times of total commercial energy consumption in 21) 13
Sectoral Coal Consumption (mtoe) Coal consumption in 231 21 139 18 231 15 49 12 16 91 137 37 9 285 16 253 6 219 1148 3 663 146 581 296 BAU HYB HG HHYB Pow er Industry (Process heating ) Ore-reduction Industry (Captive) Maximum share of power sector in coal consumption across all scenarios followed by the industrial sector for process heating and captive power generation Coking coal consumption is the highest in the hybrid scenario due to increased iron making through the blast furnace route Power sector exhibits highest reduction potential, followed by process heating in industry Difference in coal consumption in the power sector in 231 Hybrid vis-à-vis BAU: 367 mtoe (55% reduction) High growth hybrid vis-à-vis high growth scenario: 568 mtoe (49% reduction) 14
Energy Intensity (kgoe/rs of GDP).24.22.2.18.16.14.12.1 21 26 211 216 221 226 231 236 Year LG BAU REN NUC EFF HYB HG HHYB BAU: Decline in energy-intensity from.22 kgoe/rs. of GDP in 21 to.17 kgoe/rs. of GDP by 231 Decrease of 23% Even in BAU scenario Indian economy is progressing along an energy-efficient path Hybrid scenario : Decline in energyintensity to.12 kgoe/rs. of GDP in 231 (extent of 29% vis-à-vis BAU in 231) High-growth hybrid scenario: Decline in energy-intensity to.11 kgoe/rs. of GDP by 231 (5% reduction from 21) Progression of economy along a declining energy-intensity path if energy-efficiency measures are pursued aggressively even with a high optimistic growth rate of 1% GDP 15
Analysis of CO 2 Emissions 16
Cumulative CO 2 Emissions billion tonnes 3 25 2 15 1 5 Cumulative CO 2 Emissions Across Various Scenarios (21-236) 25. 16.2 15.8 17.5 15.7 12.2 12.1 11.5 LG BAU REN NUC EFF HYB HG HHYB Scenario Cumulative CO 2 emissions lower to the extent of 25% and 29% in the high efficiency and hybrid scenarios respectively vis-à-vis the BAU scenario Cumulative CO 2 emissions higher by only 8% in the highgrowth hybrid scenario vis-a-vis BAU scenario 17
CO2 Emissions by Fuels (BAU) 1% 6% 7% 7% 7% 9% 6% 4% 3% 8% 34% 37% 38% 38% 37% 34% 32% 3% Percentage 6% 4% 2% 6% 57% 54% 55% 54% 59% 64% 67% Gas Oil Coal % 21 26 211 216 221 226 231 236 Year 18
CO2 Emissions by Sectors Percentage 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 11% 16% 19% 2% 21% 2% 19% 38% 37% 39% 39% 41% 39% 39% 42% 39% 36% 36% 34% 38% 4% 21 26 211 216 221 226 231 Year Power Industry Transport Residential Agriculture Commercial 19
CO2 Emissions Reduction Scenarios- Without CCS million tonnes 18 15 12 9 6 3 Sector wise CO 2 emissions in 211 1663 115 1497 1441 1379 314 115 115 19 276 276 276 594 485 436 374 641 621 615 621 million tonnes 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Sector wise CO 2 emissions in 221 3332 152 2665 686 2443 153 2221 495 153 1124 499 15 496 689 597 41 137 1328 1194 1174 BAU 3% 4% 5% Scenario Sector wise CO 2 emissions in 231 BAU 3% 4% 5% Scenario million tonnes 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 7267 181 1377 587 183 436 2879 874 183 3634 1473 885 183 827 786 694 283 2557 2465 1971 BAU 3% 4% 5% Scenario Industry Power Transport Others Total Time Series CO2 emissions (cumulative) reduction targets of 3%, 4% and 5% from the BAU by 231. Maximum reduction occurs in the power sector by deployment of clean coal technologies. (7% reduction ~ 2185 million mt.) 2
GW 2 16 12 8 4 Uptake of Power Generating Technologies at Various CO2 mitigation scenarios: Without CCS 4 7 69 23 3 8 Power Generating Technologies in 211 7 7 8 8 7 8 69 69 69 26 34 8 2 3 54 5 51 BAU 3% 4% 5% Scenario GW 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 21 4 116 114 5 112 Power Generating Technologies in 221 4 4 11 12 116 116 4 12 118 49 73 38 96 13 3 9 55 16 42 27 BAU 3% 4% 5% Scenario GW 75 6 45 3 15 Power Generating Technologies in 231 21 4 158 7 7 7 15 15 17 157 158 16 16 1 49 86 327 237 298 146 55 22 22 43 28 59 BAU 3% 4% 5% Scenario Power sector presents the greatest opportunity to implement CCS. With the increase of clean coal technology uptake from 1 GW in the BAU Scenario to 146 GW in the 3% reduction scenario. Conventional coal Clean coal Gas based H-frame Gas based Hydro Renewables Nuclear 21
GHG mitigation scenarios at various CO2 Prices (without CCS) Scenario 21 211 221 231 BAU 917 1663 3332 7267 $ 5/tonne 917 1457 2495 561 $ 1/tonne 917 14 2472 4989 $ 2/tonne 917 1383 2412 4972 Units of CO2 mitigated are in million tonnes 22
Geological CO2 Storage Potential Estimated CO 2 storage potential in deep saline reservoirs (on and off shore) estimates ~ 36 GtCO 2 Depleted oil and gas wells estimates ~ 7 GtCO 2 Un-mineable coal seams 5 GtCO 2 Volcanic rock 2 GtCO 2 Source: Singh, A.K., Mendhe,, V., Garg,, A., 26, CO2 sequestration potential of geological formations in India,, 8 th International conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, GHGT-8, Trondheim, Norway, June 19-22, 26. 23
Current CCS Activities in India India is a member of CSLF & IEA GHG R&D Programme It is participating in the Future Gen Programme The Government of India has plans to invest in CCS related activities in the XI & XII Five Plan (report of the working group on R&D for the energy sector) Institute of Reservoir Studies is carrying out CO2 capture and EOR field studies in Gujarat NGRI is testing the feasibility of storing CO2 in basalt formations 24
Cost Range of CCS components CCS component Capture from power plant Capture from gas processing or NH3 production Capture from industrial sources Transportation Geological storage Ocean storage Mineral carbonation Cost range 15 75 US $/ mt.. CO2 net captured 5 55 US $/ mt.. CO2 net captured 25 55 US $/ mt.. CO2 net captured 1 8 US $/mt.co2(25 km transported).5 8 US $/mt mt.. (injected) 5 3 US $/mt mt.. (injected) 5 1 US $/mt mt.. (net mitigated) Source: IEA-GHG R&D programme (Report 27/9) 25
Barriers to Adoption of CCS Financial Barriers: High capital costs (3 to 4% increase) Higher Energy penalty (O&M) Institutional barrier Does not fit in the overall goal of meeting the millennium development goals Non-productive expenditure Does not contribute to sustainable development Technical Barriers: Yet to be commercially demonstrated in large point sources of CO2 Capture technologies are not standard for all large point sources (ex: power plant & cement plant) Sinks and their capacities to yet be identified Many parts of India are seismically active issue of permanenance EOR/ECBM/EGR potential yet to be established in India Potential & cost for sequestering in depleted oil & gas wells yet to be determined (off-shore and on-shore) Mapping and matching of sinks and sources for optimization of cost to be done 26
Other Barriers Storage ( leakage safety; leakage-carbon accounting) Acceptance general public is unaware of CCS Regulatory: no international standards as yet EC established national standards to allow CCS for European Trading Financial: Lack of business architecture; Storage business does not exist 27
Conclusions Climate change is a global problem India needs international cooperation Establishment of CCS technologies require major investments in a country like India, which cannot be handled even by OECD countries CCS options will vary from region to region and country to country Entire value chain needs vigorous analysis International cooperation in CCS is a must for successful deployment of this technology. 28
Thank you 29