9th International Conference on Energy Efficiency in Domestic Appliances and Lighting Irvine, California, USA 13-15 September 217 Effects of Promoting Electrification and Energy Efficiency Improvement in the Building Sector for Achieving of the Climate Target Keeping below 2 Tatsuya HANAOKA Center for Social and Environmental Systems National Institute for Environmental Studies Japan
IPCC AR5 WG3(214) Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7 4.8 by 21. To stay below 2, the range of GHG emissions are roughly between 3-5 Gt CO2eq in 23. To stay below 2, 41 72% reductions by 25 compared to the 21 level are required. Corresponding to 2 Different colors show different categories which achieve the same CO2-eq concentration at the point in 21 41%~72% 25 reduction Relative to 21 Reaching to ZERO emission in the end of the century Source) IPCC AR5 WG3 (214), Figure SPM.4 1 21
UNEP/WMO SLCP report (211) - Reducing of SLCP emissions & Inhibiting Temperature Rise - Reducing SLCPs (CH 4, BC, tropospheric O 3, some HFCs) offers a realistic opportunity to significantly reduce the rate of global warming over the next two to four decades. If fully implemented by 23, it reduces global warming between 21 to 24 by about.4.5 CO2 reduction only CO2 & SLCP reduction Source) Figure6.1, UNEP/WMO (211) Integrated Assessment of BC and tropospheric O3 Figure ES-2, UNEP (211) Near-term Climate Protection and Clean Air Benefits: Actions for Controlling Short-Lived Climate Forcers 2
Effects of Reducing BC From the viewpoint of health impacts, BC should be reduced largely. From the viewpoint of climate impacts, BC should be reduced largely. Major source of BC emission is the residential and commercial s. Due to low-carbon mitigation measures, we can have cohenites of reducing BC emissions 3
Objectives of this Study This study analyses effects of promoting electrification and energy efficiency improvement in the residential and commercial s while taking GHG mitigation actions for achieving the 2 target 1. estimation of emissions pathways of the Kyoto basket of greenhouse gases (GHGs) for achieving the 2 target 2. cobenefits in reducing of SLCPs (e.g. BC) and air pollutants (e.g. PM 2.5 ) due to the effects of low-carbon measures and due to promoting electrification in the residential and commercial s 4
model Brief Overview of AIM (Asia-Pasific Integrated Model) for mitigation analyses Output Global scale AIM/Impact[Policy] Top-down approach AIM/Material AIM/Extended Snapshot Hybrid approach AIM/Backcast AIM/CGE[Country] Mitigation potentials and costs curves National scale Macro-economic driving forces Macro-economic driving forces Global emission paths to climate stabilization AIM/CGE[Global] Mitigation potentials and costs curves AIM/Energy Snapshot Bottom-up approach AIM/Enduse[Country] Industrial production, transportation volume, etc AIM/Enduse[Global] Industrial production, transportation volume, etc Element / transition (service demand) Element / transition (service demand) 5
Characteristics of AIM/Enduse model Bottom-up type model with detailed technology selection framework with optimizing the total system cost Recursive dynamic model (=Calculating year by year) Assessing technological transition over time Analyzing effect of policies such as carbon/energy tax, subsidy, regulation and so on. Target Gas: both Long-Lived GHGs and Short-Lived Climate Pollutants CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6, CFCs, HCFCs, SO 2, NOx, BC, etc Target Sectors : multiple s power generation, industry, residential, commercial, transport, agriculture, municipal solid waste, fugitive emissions, F-gas (each of these can be further disaggregated into sub-s) 6
AIM/Enduse[Global] model - Regional Classification - World 32 regions 12 Asian regions Annex I OECD ASEAN 7
AIM/Enduse[Global] model - Target Gases and Sectors Mitigation options listed in the following s are considered in the AIM/Enduse[Global] model Sector Power generation Industry Transportation Residential & Commercial Agriculture MSW Fugitive Fgas emissions Sub s whose mitigation actions are considered in Enduse model (other subs are treated as scenario) Coal power plant, Oil power plant, Gas power plant, Renewable (Wind, Biomass, PV), Nuclear, Hydro, Geothermal, Heat Iron and steel,cement, Other industries (Boiler, motor etc) Passenger vehicle, Truck,Bus,Ship, Aircraft,Passenger train,freight train (except for pipeline transport and international transport) Cooling, Heating, Hot-water, Cooking, Lighting, Refrigerator, TV, Other equipments Livestock rumination, Manure management, Paddy field, Cropland Municipal solid waste, Waste water management Fugitive emission from fuel production By-product of HCFC-22, Refrigerant,Aerosol, Foams,Solvent, Etching,Aluminum production, Insulation gas, others. CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 CFCs HCFCs SO2 NOx BC OC PM1 PM2.5 CO NH3 NMVOC Hg Fuel combustion Industrial process Agriculture Waste Fuel mining Others Note ) Emission factors can be set by energy, by and by region over time. Settings on technology options are the same, too 8
AIM/Enduse[Global] model and element models Coal Energy Resource DB Oil Gas Energy mining Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass Energy Supply Primary energy Socio-economic scenario Steel Production & Trade Model Cement Production Model Crude steel production Cement production Iron and steel Cement Electricity Population & Household number Transportation Demand Model Value added of 2nd industry Transport volume (Passenger) Transport volume (Freight) Other industries Transport Solid fuel Liquid fuel Gas fuel Heat Energy balance GHG emissions in Asia (Gt CO2eq) 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Emissions Macro Economic frame Model GDP & Sector value added Household Lifestyle Model Energy service (Residential) Energy service (Commercial) Building Hydrogen Municipal Solid Waste Model Municipal solid waste generation Solid waste management Agricultural Prod & Trade model Agricultural production Agriculture Fluorocarbon Emission Model Fluorocarbon emission Fluorocarbon Macro-economic model Service demand models Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse) Energy DB Technology DB Variable Model Database Energy price Emission factor Cost Lifetime Efficiency Diffusion rate 9
Scenario Dimensions SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) - See details about quantitative data and qualitative stories https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/sspdb/dsd?action=htmlpage&page=about Previous representative scenarios (until IPCC AR4) SRES Latest representative scenarios (toward IPCC AR6) SSPs (Nakicenovic et al., 2) (O Neill, 212) 1
Population and GDP in Asia in SSP scenarios Characteristics of socio-economic dynamics are different depending on countries & scenarios They will influence on future estimations of service demands, energy consumption,etc. 15 2 14 1 POP Population (million) 14 13 12 11 China Population (million) 18 16 14 12 1 India Population (million) 13 12 11 1 9 Japan Population (million) 9 8 7 6 5 ASEAN 1 199 21 23 25 8 199 21 23 25 8 199 21 23 25 4 199 21 23 25 GDP GDP (Trillion US$25) 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 China 199 21 23 25 GDP (Trillion US$25) 2 15 1 5 India 199 21 23 25 GDP (Trillion US$25) 1 8 6 4 2 Japan 199 21 23 25 GDP (Trillion US$25) 1 8 6 4 2 ASEAN 199 21 23 25 GDP/POP GDP per capita (1 US$25/person) 3 25 2 15 1 5 China 199 21 23 25 GDP per capita (1 US$25/person) 12 1 8 6 4 2 India 199 21 23 25 GDP per capita (1 US$25/person) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Japan 199 21 23 25 GDP per capita (1 US$25/person) 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 ASEAN 199 21 23 25 Historical SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5 11
AIM/Enduse[Global] model and element models Coal Energy Resource DB Oil Gas Energy mining Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass Energy Supply Primary energy By energy, and country, we can set various constraints such as Technology in the base year Energy balance in the base year Technology diffusion rate Speed of technology diffusion rate Technology constraints Energy constraints Speed of energy efficiency improvement Technology cost Induced technology costs etc Iron and steel Cement Other industries Transport Building Solid waste management Agriculture Electricity Solid fuel Liquid fuel Gas fuel Heat Hydrogen Energy balance GHG emissions in Asia (Gt CO2eq) 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Emissions Select technologies to satisfy future service demands by and to balance supply and demand, under various constraints & under minimizing total system costs Fluorocarbon Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse) Energy DB Energy price Emission factor Technology DB Cost Lifetime Efficiency Diffusion rate 12
Overview of mitigation measures various mitigation measures are available for promoting energy efficiency on both the demand and supply side, as well as reducing air pollutant by removal devices. Four major groups of mitigation measures on GHG and air pollutants 1 End-of-pipe mitigation measures Effective for reducing (a) specific gas(es) e.g:desulfurization equipment [=SO 2 reduction], denitrification equipment [=NOx reduciton], dust-collecting equipment [=BC, PM reduction], fertilization management in agriculture [=N 2 O reduciton], manure management [=CH 4, N 2 O reduction], waste management [=CH 4 reduction] 2 Improvement of quality of fuels Effective for reducing a specific gas e.g.:shifting from high sulfur-content fuel to low-sulfur content fuel [=SO 2 reduction] 3 Improvement of energy efficiency Effective for reducing multiple gases e.g.:introduction of high-energy efficient technologies and reduction of energy consumption [=CO 2 APs BC reduction], Low-carbon power in the supply side and electrification in the demand [=CO 2 APs BC reduction] 4 Drastic energy shifting Effective for reducing multiple gases e.g.:shifting from coal to renewables or natural gas [=CO 2 APs BC reduction], diffusion of hydrogen-fuel from renewables [=CO 2 APs BC reduction] 13
Overview of Future Scenario Settings Changing the settings of carbon pricing (i.e. marginal cost) in order to discuss the effects of low-carbon measures Changing the levels of electrification promotion in the residential and commercial s in order to discuss the effects of fuel shifting. Scenario name 21 215 22 23 24 25 Constraints on electrification promotion Reference SSP2 level (i.e. BaU) T2_EleRef 5 1 15 2 Complying with SSP2 level T4_EleRef 1 2 3 4 Complying with SSP2 level T4_EleHigh 1 2 3 4 Allowing electrification promotion in the building s, more than the reference level. [Unit: US$/tCO 2 eq] 14
Global Emissions pathways in this study - comparing with a set of well-known GHG emissions pathways by the UNEP Gap Report - The reference scenario corresponds to the level of 3.5 increase pathway. To achieve the 2 target, future carbon price will be much higher than the current levels, around 4 US$/tCO 2 eq in 25 2 [high] 2 [Median] 2 [low] 3 [Median] 3.5 [Median] 4 [Median] Ref T4 8 GHG emission [GtCO2e] 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 21 22 23 24 25 Note 1) Dashed lines show median values in the range of well-known GHG emissions pathways with a "likely" (greater than 66%) chance of staying below 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4, compared to pre-industrial levels reported by UNEP Gap Report 15
Global Emissions pathways: CO 2, SO 2, BC, PM 2.5 Inventory (EDGER4.2) Inventory (HTAP2) IPCC RCP 2.6 IPCC RCP 8.5 Equivalent to 3.5 increase CO2 Emission (TgCO2) BC Emission (TgBC) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Ref 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 T2_EleRef low carbon measures Cobenefits of low carbon measures SO2 Emission (TgSO2) PM2.5 Emission (TgPM2.5) 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 T4_EleRef Effects of electricity promotion T4_EleHi 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 Equivalent to 2 increase Cobenefits of low carbon measures 16
Total Energy Consumption in the Residential and Commercial Sectors in Asia Due to promoting more electrification by mainly switching from biomass, total energy consumptions decrease. Biomass Coal Kerosene LPG Natural Gas Electricity Others 1,2 1,2 61.3 Mtoe Energy consumption (Mtoe) 1, 8 6 4 685.2 Mtoe Energy consumption (Mtoe) 1, 8 6 4 739.2 Mtoe 2 2 65.5 Mtoe 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 T4_EleRef scenario (Reference Electrification rate) T4_EleHigh scenario (High Electrification rate) 17
BC and PM2.5 Emissions in the Residential and Commercial Sectors in Asia BC and PM2.5 emissions are decreased in Asia, because of decrease of biomass (mainly) as well as coal (in some degree) consumption, by promoting electrification 1.4 1.2 Hot Water Heating Cooking 1.4 1.2 BC emission (MtBC) 1..8.6.4 BC emission (MtBC) 1..8.6.4.2.2 PM2.5 emission (MtPM2.5). 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 1. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 T4_EleRef scenario (Reference Electrification rate) PM2.5 emission (MtPM2.5). 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 1. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 T4_EleHigh scenario (High Electrification rate) 18
Relations among Electrification Promotion and Sub-al BC Emissions in Asia (Left figure): Electrification promotion will reduce BC emissions from cooking largely more than heating and hot water. 8% increase of electrification in Asia in 25 will reduce BC and PM 2.5 emissions around 28%. (Right figure) Impacts of electrification promotion are almost similar across all subs, around 2% decreases in 25 compared to the T4_EleRef scenario BC Emission [Mt BC].8.7.6.5.4.3.2.1 Emission in Cooking [T4_EleRef] Emission in Cooking [T4_Elehigh] Emission in Hot Water [T4_EleRef] Emission in Hot Water [T4_EleHigh] 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%. % 21 22 23 24 25 Electricity share [%] BC emission [21=1] 1.2 1.8.6.4.2 Emission in Heating [T4_EleRef] Emission in Heating [T4_EleHigh] Electricity [T4_EleRef] Electricity [T4_EleHigh] 21 22 23 24 25 Absolute values Relative values (21=1) 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 Electricity Consumption [22=1] 19
Conclusions 1. the level of carbon tax required is quite high, more than 4 US$/tCO 2 in 25, in order to achieve the 2 target 2. there are large co-benefits in reducing SO 2, BC and PM 2.5 emissions by taking low-carbon measures 3. promoting electrification in the residential and commercial s is effective, e.g. 8% increase of electrification in Asia in 25 will reduce BC and PM 2.5 emissions around 28-29%. 4. However, especially in developing countries, consideration of the future energy ladder shifting from coal or biomass to electricity and how to set potentials of future electrification needs to be carefully discussed. 5. In addition, a high carbon price for achieving the 2 target may become a barrier to arrive at an international agreement in the international negotiation process under the UNFCCC. In order to overcome such various barriers, it is important for policy makers to emphasize effective cobenefits in reducing air-pollution and SLCPs while adopting low-carbon policies 2
ご清聴ありがとうございました Thank you for your attention Contact: Dr. Tatsuya HANAOKA E-mail: hanaoka@nies.go.jp Asia-Pacific Integrated Model http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.html