Current Economic & Carbon Black Market Scenario in South Asia November 2017 Plan - 2023
Content Sl No Table of Content 1. South Asia.. 2. Economic Environment 4. South Asia Economic Indicators 5. India Growth Drivers & Concerns 6. India Automobile Industry 7. India Tyre production 8. Trends in India Carbon Black Market 9. India Carbon Black Demand & Supply 10. Sri Lanka Carbon Black Demand & Supply 11. Bangladesh Carbon Black Demand & Supply 12. Rest of South Asian Countries 13. Key Takeaways 2
South Asia. South Asia comprises of Eight Nations Covering a population of more than 2 billion. South Asia: GDP Growth Rate % 6.5 2016 6.9 2017 7.3 2018 E South Asia Economic GDP growth rate is forecasted at 7.3% as against World economic growth to reach estimated 3.6 percent in 2018 Afghanistan Population : 34 Million GDP : $20.6 Billion Pakistan Population : 207 Million GDP : $304.4 Billion India Population : 1.4 Billion GDP : $2.45 Trillion Maldives Population : 0.8 Million GDP : $2.3 Billion Population : 29.1 Million GDP : $23.3 Billion Nepal Sri Lanka Population : 20.9 Million GDP : $84 Billion Bhutan Population : 0.8 Million GDP : $2.3 Billion Bangladesh Population : 164 Million GDP : $249 Billion 3
Economic Environment Country Drivers Restraints AFGHANISTAN BANGLADESH BHUTAN INDIA In Afghanistan, agriculture is expected to help spur 3% growth in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018. This will build on a gradual upward trend in growth over recent years. South Asia s garment industry leader, exports are a key element driving growth that is forecast at 6.9%- 7% in 2017 and 2018. it s all about clean energy in Bhutan is a world leader in terms of hydropower reserves. The country s stunning 6.2% percent growth in 2016 to 11.2% forecast in 2018 rests primarily on the building of hydropower plants and selling the power South Asia s largest economy, GDP is expected to expand by 7.2% in 2017 and further to 7.7% the year after, based on increased consumer spending and government initiatives to boost private investment. Terrorism Sluggish growth in developed economies in Europe More than 50% of the country is inhospitable Global Slowdown and internal major economic reform like GST is slowing down growth 4
Economic Environment Country Drivers Restraints MALDIVES NEPAL PAKISTAN SRI LANKA Maldives modest growth was maintained despite significant challenges. With tourism weak for a third straight year, Maldives is nevertheless forecast to register 4.1% growth in 2017 and 4.7% for 2018. Nepal, is on the path to economic recovery. It is forecast to post 5.5% growth in 2017 and 4.5% in 2018, powered by reconstruction spending and a revived agriculture sector. In Pakistan, major economic reforms are working in tandem with an improved security situation to push growth to an estimated 5.0% in 2017 and 5.2% in 2018 the highest rates the country has seen in recent years. Economic reforms are also a big part of the story in Sri Lanka, which is expected to see 4.5%-5% growth in 2017 and 2018. Volatile Political Conditions Is still reeling from one of the worst disasters a 7.8 magnitude earthquake that killed nearly 9,000 people and destroyed or damaged nearly 800,000 homes Domestic Terrorism and War Natural calamities like flooding, tsunami etc. are regular occurrence 5
South Asia: Economic Indicators 12 11 10 9 In China, the region s biggest and the world s second largest economy, growth is projected to decelerate to 6.6 percent in 2017 and 6.2 in 2018. % 8 7 6 5 11.2 4 3 2 1 0 6.8 7.2 7.7 4.7 5.0 5.2 6.9 6.9 7.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 6.2 5.9 5.5 India Pakistan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Bhutan Nepal 0.6 4.5 3.0 3.5 2.0 Afghanistan 3.9 4.1 4.7 Maldives 2016 2017 E 2018 E South Asia: GDP Growth Rate Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook 6
India Auto industry Growth Drivers & Concerns Growing Demand Policy Initiative Support infrastructure and high investments Raw material price volatility Dumping of tyres by China Economic Measures Rising income and a large young population. Greater availability of credit and financing options. Demand for commercial vehicles increasing due to high level of activity in infrastructure sector. Clear vision of Indian government to make India an auto manufacturing hub. Initiatives like Make in India, Automotive Mission Plan 2026, and NEMMP 2020 to give a huge boost to the sector Road infrastructure is a key priority of the govt. with 24 related road and highway projects fast tracked giving boost to its Bharatmala Plan. Targeted pace of road construction has been increased to 23 km a day in 2017 and 41 kms in 2018. Established auto ancillary industry giving the required support to boost growth. 5.1 per cent of total FDI inflows to India went into the automobiles sector. The prices of raw material consumed by the ancillary industry like natural rubber, carbon black, synthetic rubber, etc. are extremely volatile and could impact the margins Until recently, there were huge imports of TBR tyres from China. However anti-dumping duties have been levied. Certain Economic measures such as Demonetization and implementation of GST has impacted tyre sale and also OE for passenger vehicle / Commercial vehicle / 2wheeler in the short term 7
India Automobile Industry a Snapshot +5.8% 3.47 +9.4% 3.79 Passenger Vehicles 0.79 +3.0% 0.81 Commercial Vehicles Fy 2016-16.2% 0.93 0.78 Three Wheelers Fy 2017 Vehicle Production (million units) 19.93 18.83 Two Wheelers 3rd largest automobile industry in the world and the industry accounts for 7.1 per cent of the country's GDP. Strong market in terms of both, the domestic demand and exports. 7th largest manufacturer of commercial vehicles The Two Wheelers segment with 81 per cent market share is the leader of the Indian Automobile market owing to a growing middle class and a young population The only country among top seven car markets globally to achieve double digit growth rate of 11 per cent during Jan-May 2017. Source: SIAM 8
India Vehicle Production +9.2% 10.74 +10.8% 11.90 13.44 14.68 1.86 +5.2% 1.96-5.4% 0.39 0.37 0.44-1.1% 0.44 Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles Three Wheelers Two wheelers Grand Total 2016-17 2017-18 Vehicles Production (million units) : Apr Sep 2016 Vs Apr Sep 2017 Total production volume grew at a CAGR of 5.56 per cent between FY12-17 and increased 9.18 per cent year-on-year in April-September 2017. Source: SIAM 9
India Tyre Industry a Snapshot 128.9 +8.6% 146.1 152.0 127.3 There are 39 companies in the domestic tyre industry as per ATMA and the industry is valued at around Rs. 535 billion as of 2015-16 with the top 10 companies accounting for 85-90% of the market share. Tyre demand is directly proportional to the Economic growth in country. Momentum of radialisation in the Commercial vehicle sector increasing. 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 (Apr-Dec) Dumping of cheap Chinese version had impacted the domestic market for radial tyres for the last 2 years. Anti dumping duties have since been imposed. Production of Tyre (million units) Source: ATMA 10
India Tyre Production 56.36 +14.2% 64.37 +16.4% 28.80 33.52 12.44-2.7% 12.10 7.27 +7.0% 7.78 3.72-0.5% 3.70 M&HCV P V LCV/SCV 2 Wheelers 3 Wheelers 2015-16 2016-17 Tyre Production(million units) : Apr Dec 2015 Vs Apr Dec 2016 Market growing with steady demand increase from both OE and replacement segments Temporary blips in demand due to demonetization and GST Source: ATMA 11
Trends impacting Carbon Black demand in India Trends Development of Newer Grades Trend towards optimization of rolling resistance, light weight and fuel efficiency all have to be represented in the tyre. Trends CB Impact Development of newer grades of Black. Fluctuating Demand Economic Measures like GST and Demonetisation has affected in short term in reduced demand for both vehicles and tyres. CB Impact Domestic demand fluctuated, however lower imports during same period did not dampen demand for CB Carbon Black Trends in India Trends Production Capacity of HB Radialization in Truck/Bus segment steeply increased by 10% in last 2 years reaching 36% in March 17 & is expected to be at 42% in March 2018. Trends With boom in auto sectors demand for Moulded Rubber Goods (MRG) has been continuously increasing. CB Impact Rising Sales of N550 Sales of super hard grades steeply increased to 37% which four years ago was 25%. Effect - Production capacity of Hard Blacks going down. CB Impact Sales % of N550/Clean N550 is rising. Effect- Production capacity of soft black is reducing.
India Carbon Black Demand & Supply 4.6% 4.5% 763 798 1,028 1,028 +7% 606 633 795 852 5.1% Fy 2017 Fy 2018 157 165 100 132 Tyre Non Tyre Total Capacity Production Import Export Carbon Black Demand In 000 tonnes pa Carbon Black Supply In 000 tonnes pa Notch Consulting report 13
Carbon Black - India Uniqueness Domestic players straddle the carbon black market in all segments baring one multi national. The other major global manufacturers do not have any presence in the country. India s diversity in terms of geography, markets and economic strata has lead to carbon black demand across the entire spectrum of grades right from the 1 series to 7 series. Even with one of the largest global markets in tyres, Indian tyre industry is dominated by homegrown players. As against other large economies, India has a large Bias tyre market Carbon black demand in non-rubber segments, though small currently is growing at a fast pace specially in plastics and coatings 14
Sri Lanka Carbon Black Demand & Supply 52 54 +7.2% 58 64 Total supply of Carbon black is dependent on imports as there is no manufacturing unit. Solid tyre industry growing quite strongly, new manufacturers are getting into the business and old manufacturers have increased their capacity. Still a Bias tyre dominant market. No radial tyre manufacturer yet. 2014 2015 2016 2017 Carbon Black Demand In 000 tonnes pa Industry Estimates 15
Bangladesh Carbon Black Demand & Supply 78 80 +3.3% 82 86 Total supply is dependent on imports as there is no Carbon Black manufacturing unit. Cycle tyre & footwear dominated market. Ceat factory with a announced capacity of 65 tonne/ day could not start as planned in 2016 otherwise the volumes would have increased. 2014 2015 2016 2017 Gazi etc. are establishing Bias tyres units in near future Carbon Black Demand In 000 tonnes pa Industry Estimates 16
Rest of South Asian Countries Pakistan Main domestic source of carbon black production is National Petrocarbon operates a plant located in Karachi. Production capacity is estimated around 42 KTPY including added capacity of 22KTPY in 2010. Major consumer is General Tyre Pakistan. Nepal Still to recover from one of the worst disaster that unfortunately effected Nepal badly. A massive earthquake of 7.8 magnitude in the year 2015 Although previously demand was not big but after the disaster that also has dried up. Others Virtually no demand for carbon black exists in the rest of the countries due to absence of related manufacturing industries. They heavily rely on imports. 17
Key Takeaways South Asia region is one of the fastest growing carbon black market globally India is a dominant figure in the South Asia Economy influencing its market demand and supply The region s demand is dynamic influenced by trends like population, growth, rising aspirations and increase in purchasing power Manufacturers need to be nimble footed to adjust to dynamic market scenario as well as economic reforms 18
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