Availability of Biomass Feedstocks in the Appalachian Region Appalachian Woody Biomass to Ethanol Conference Bob Perlack Oak Ridge National Laboratory September 5, 2007 Managed by UT-Battelle
Quick review of the Billion-Ton Vision report Overview Updating and extending the results Location of resources (counties and fine-spatial scale) Biorefinery siting and logistics Environmental sustainability Purpose of update Quantify sustainable biomass resources (i.e., tonnages and costs) for production goals of 1, 5, 10, and 20 BGY of cellulosic ethanol by 2012, 2017, and 2030, respectively Grower payments, stumpage costs, production costs Harvest and collection costs Supply curves Feedstock characteristics Development of a GIS-based feedstock atlas Coordinate with Regional Feedstock Partnerships and USDA Feedstock availability in the Appalachian region 2 Managed by UT-Battelle
Forest resources Logging residues Biomass feedstock resource base About one-half of the land in the contiguous U.S. Forestland resources: 504 million acres of timberland, 91 million acres of other forestland Agricultural resources: 342 million acres cropland, 39 million acres idle cropland, 68 million acres cropland pasture Forest thinnings (fuel treatments) Fuelwood Primary wood processing mill residues Secondary wood processing mill residues Pulping liquors Urban wood residues Agricultural resources Crop residues Grains to biofuels Perennial grasses Perennial woody crops Animal manures Food/feed processing residues MSW and landfill gases 3 Managed by UT-Battelle
Total resource potential Cropland and forestland can provide a sustainable supply and still meet food, feed, and export demands Potential (>1.3 Billion dry tons) is based on reasonable assumptions given trends and deployment time Current consumption is about 190 million dry tons 4 Managed by UT-Battelle
What is the U.S. cropland potential? Total cropland resource approaches 1 billion dry tons/year including perennial energy crops (grasses and trees) Yield increase of 25-50% for corn, small grains, 15-30% for other crops Change in tillage practices Residue collection equipment The allocation of active cropland, idle cropland, and pasture to energy crops; 40-60 million acres Large changes in acreage since BTV 5 Managed by UT-Battelle
What is the U.S. forestland potential? A considerable fraction of forest residues are already in use Primary sources only easily exceed 100 million dry tons (logging, other removals, & fuel treatment thinnings) Conservative assumptions based on accessibility and recoverability Relatively low bioenergy to conventional forest products fraction Excludes large pulpwood resource Changing markets (e.g., low-price wood and/or high-price oil) could make much more available for bioenergy Not much change in resource potential estimates with same assumptions 6 Managed by UT-Battelle
Crop residues Corn stover $/dry ton 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Million dry tons/year Current till All no-till Corn stover is the largest single source (~75 to 250 million dry tons/year) Quantity depends on tillage, rotation, yields, acreage Costs depend on collection equipment, removal constraints (tons/ac), landscape factors Current plantings ~92.5 million acres 7 Managed by UT-Battelle
Other crop residues (national & regional) Wheat Barley Sorghum Oats Sugarcane Rice 8 Managed by UT-Battelle
Where will perennial energy crops compete? Comparison of net returns between conventional crops and perennial crops Areas with high net returns will preclude perennial crop production Net returns over variable costs (~$130 - $330/acre) Consider cropland with lower net returns or hay and pasture land 9 Managed by UT-Battelle
Land use change estimation of energy crop potential POLYSYS model (U. of Tennessee) All of the major crops and livestock categories Feed, food, export demands Active cropland, idle cropland & CRP, cropland pasture Divided into 305 geographic districts Includes current commodity policies Anchored to USDA baseline projections Decisions based on relative profitability Development of OBP version Model input assumptions consistent feedstock platform Revised productivity estimates Incorporating forestlands into POLYSYS Joint effort with USDA/FS, ORNL 10 Managed by UT-Battelle
Developed new fine-scaled estimates of potential switchgrass productivity More robust statistical models under development Comparisons to be done with process models Extend to woody crops (working with USDA/FS) Multiplicative model estimates yield as the product of estimated maximum yield, Y max and the fractional reduction due to each limiting variable, temperature (T) and precipitation (P) Y ( T ) Y ( P) Yield = Ymax Y ( T ) Y ( P) max max 11 Managed by UT-Battelle
Determining the location of biomass resources is important Biorefinery siting and feedstock logistics (supply chains) Environment and long-term sustainability concerns (e.g., water availability) 12 Managed by UT-Battelle
Combining national land cover data with the cropland data layer 13 Managed by UT-Battelle
Comparison of land delineation between NLCD and CDL 2001 National Land Cover Data 2001 Cropland Data Layer 14 Managed by UT-Battelle
Location of stover resource 15 Managed by UT-Battelle
Siting and feedstock logistics Siting of biorefineries ORIBAS (Oak Ridge Integrated Biomass Analysis System) - Craig Brandt Supply chain design IBSAL (Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics) - Shahab Sokhansanj Crop residues and grasses Forest residues under construction 16 Managed by UT-Battelle
Oak Ridge Integrated Biomass Analysis System (ORIBAS) Combine spatial estimates of feedstock supplies with transportation networks to estimate optimal locations of biorefineries Biorefineries are located based on minimizing feedstock supply cost C s = C p + C t C p : Production cost cost of growing and delivering feedstock to farm gate C t : Transportation cost cost of moving feedstock from farm gate to biorefinery Can also estimate cost and associated feedstock supply to biorefineries at specified locations 17 Managed by UT-Battelle
Supply Oak Ridge Integrated Biomass Analysis System (ORIBAS) Feedstock(s): crop residues, herbaceous crops, short rotation woody crops, forest residues, mill residues, urban waste Assign supply to land use Supply scenario Transportation factors Pixel-to-node speed Node-to-node costs: constant, distance, and time Travel speeds for each road type Conversion facilities Capacity Possible locations: all nodes or selected subset 18 Managed by UT-Battelle
Transportation network and supply Feedstock Switchgrass County-level supplies estimated by POLYSYS ~5,760,000 Mt of potential supply in 131,777 1 km 2 pixels Transportation network and costs Roads only Constant: $4.28 / Mt Distance: $0.098 / Mt-km Time: $5.20 / Mt-hr Biorefinery facilities 2,423 possible locations 1,000,000 Mt/yr capacity for each biorefinery 19 Managed by UT-Battelle
Biorefinery supply Plant Marginal Pixels Price 1 $75.25 16,643 2 $75.86 18,065 3 $81.67 27,574 4 $83.54 15,786 5 $93.21 23,199 Total 101,267 20 Managed by UT-Battelle
Siting model: future directions Improve estimates of logistics costs and integrate with the Integrated Biomass Supply, Analysis and Logistics (IBSAL) model Incorporate additional transportation networks Rail Navigable waterways (i.e., barge) Incorporate additional siting constraints Proximity of transportation networks for product distribution (e.g., pipelines) Other societal considerations (e.g., population density) Update feedstock supply data and models Existing (e.g., corn stover) and new feedstocks (e.g., perennial energy crops, forest residues) Newer land use coverages (e.g., 2001 National Land Cover Data, Cropland Data Layer) 21 Managed by UT-Battelle
IBSAL Mathematical model of field and off-the-field operations Data on biomass physical characteristics - yield, physical and chemical changes in dry matter, moisture relations, density Climate variables (temperature, precipitation) Quantities and spatial distribution of biomass resources Cost data Transport (yield, acreage, modes & infrastructure, regulations) Emissions variability - uncertainties Supply chain logistics 22 Managed by UT-Battelle
Environmental sustainability Maintain water quality/quantity Dissolved oxygen (Nutrients, sources of BOD) Sediment loadings Pesticide loadings Competing demands Maintain soil fertility and habitat for native terrestrial biota Estimate changes in soil loss and degradation Define suitability of land for feedstocks vs. food Estimate impacts of land conversion for biomass feedstocks Avoid increases in net emissions Reduce CO 2 emissions Enhance carbon sequestration 23 Managed by UT-Battelle
Aquatic ecosystems integrate the effects of watershed management practices POLYSIS Projected landuse change Spatial data Crop Management Land cover, soils, topography, stream network, watershed boundaries Tillage practices, fertilizer, irrigation, crop rotations, harvest options SWAT Model Biofuel yield Sediment yield Nutrient loadings Pesticide loadings 24 Managed by UT-Battelle SWAT Soil and Water Assessment Tool
Analysis integration Biorefinery siting analyses ORIBAS Screening & siting (1 km 2 ) model Model integration IBSAL Integrated logistics & supply chain analyses Spatial analyses Spatial data development (e.g., Land cover; energy crop productivity; soils, water, climate) Environmental/sustainability Modeling/analyses (e.g., SWAT, EPIC, etc.) Data archiving/compilation - visualization, web-gis Regional partnerships Data development (e.g., switchgrass trials, data validation, etc.) Region studies Resource & economic analyses Resource availability/ accessibility data Costs of production POLYSYS supply curves (OBP assumptions w/ forestlands) Economic impacts Feedstock characteristics/ properties 25 Managed by UT-Battelle
What is the primary resource potential in Appalachia? Eastern Uplands Most small farms of any region 15% of farms, 5% of production value, and 6% of cropland Part-time cattle, tobacco, and poultry farms 26 Managed by UT-Battelle
Appalachian primary biomass resources Ethanol potential Forestlands ~926 x 10 6 MGY, croplands ~ 750 X 10 6 MGY Million dry tons/year 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 40.8 4.0 5.4 Total logging and other removal residue 55.0 Total fuel treatment thinnings on all forestlands 0.4 1.7 1.1 Unused primary mill residues 78.6 Crop residue Near-term potential 6.9 45.7 Perennial energy crops Appalachian region U.S. Total Crop residues include only corn stover and wheat straw need to assess regionally important crop residues and secondary residues Forest residues do not include secondary residues and tertiary residues Verify and validate estimates through regional partnerships 27 Managed by UT-Battelle
West Virginia primary biomass resources 1,800 1,600 1,582 Thousand dry tons/year 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 1,060 845 200 0 Total logging and other removal residue Total fuel treatment thinnings on all forestlands Resource potential is with forest residues and perennial energy crops 110 Unused primary mill residues 4 Crop residue Perennial energy crops 28 Managed by UT-Battelle
2 0 BIOMASS RESOURCE POTENTIAL IN 2017 1 3 33 1 0 0 10 5 1 19 17 12 19 7 7 1 80 9 4 6 5 22 Forest Residues Crop Residues Perennial Crops 1 8 2 14 2 17 Excludes starch crops (corn and wheat) - Source: ORNL 29 Managed by UT-Battelle
CELLULOSIC ETHANOL 2017 POTENTIAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION WA OR NV CA ID AZ UT MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS OK MN IA MO AR WI IL MI OH IN KY TN ME VT NH MA NY CT RI PA NJ MD DE WV VA NC SC < 100 million gal 100 million to 500 million gal 500 million to 1 billion gal TX LA MS AL GA > 1 billion gal FL *Reference: ORNL; USDA 30 Managed by UT-Battelle
Questions Bob Perlack perlackrd@ornl.gov 31 Managed by UT-Battelle
RESIDUES LOGGING, SILVICULTURAL OPERATIONS & CLEARING OF TIMBERLANDS Timber Product Output database 70 million dry tons generated annually Collected concurrently with operations 50% to 65% of biomass is recoverable (public vs private lands) All recovered material (~ 41 million dry tons/year) for biomass uses Estimated to increase to ~ 64 million dry tons/year 32 Managed by UT-Battelle
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RESIDUES FUEL TREATMENT OPERATIONS Timberlands Fuel Treatment Evaluator Recovery of 85% of biomass Accessibility 60% for public lands and 80% for private lands Biomass fraction 30% (70% conventional forest products) 30 year collection cycle Timberlands Other forestlands Forest Inventory Analysis database used to identify biomass (50% removal) Recovery of 85% of the identified biomass Accessibility 60% for public lands and 80% for private lands Biomass fraction 90% Collection cycle 30 years Other forestlands 35 Managed by UT-Battelle
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