17 17 AO 17AO 17AO AMIS Global Market Outlook 17/18 Wheat & Maize AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural onference Beijing -21 April 17 AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO Abdolreza Abbassian Senior Economist & AMIS Secretary Trade and Markets Division Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations Abdolreza.Abbassian@fao.org 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO I. AMIS at a glance II. Macro conditions Presentation Outline AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO III. Wheat: 17/18 world supply & demand outlook IV. Maize: 17/18 world supply & demand outlook AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 2
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO Global overage AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 4
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO AMIS participants account for the bulk of world production AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 5
17 17 AMIS Market Information & Reports AO 17AO 17AO Data access and comparison across sources on AMIS website AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO Latest forecasts from USDA, IG and AMIS published monthly in AMIS Market Monitor (47 editions published) 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 6
17 17 Oil prices remain relatively subdued AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 7
17 17 Maize-based ethanol still attractive AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO US ethanol production well above its mandate US ethanol price in March 17 averaged $1.40 per gallon up from $1.30 gallon in March 16 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 8
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO U.S. dollar loses more ground but currencies of several AMIS countries have fallen sharply since last year AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 9
17 17 In March the FAO Food Price Index was down 2.8% from February but still 13.4% above last year AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 10
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO Food commodity prices well below their peaks cereals down 45%! AO 17AO 17AO Food Prices Indices Peak values March 17 hange: March 17 over peak values % FAO Food Price Index Feb-11 240 171-29 ereals June-08 268 148-45 Oils Feb-11 287 168-42 Sugar Jan-11 4 257-39 Meat Aug-14 212 163-23 Dairy Feb-14 275 190-31 AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO Source: FAO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 11
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO AMIS-FAO World ereal Market Outlook 17/18 AO 17AO 17AO 15/ 16 16/ 17 17/ 18 hang e: 2 0 17/ 18 o ver 2 0 16 / 17 estim. f'cast million tonnes % P ro ductio n 2 535.6 2 605.8 2 596.8-0.3 AO 17AO 17AO Supply 3 190.0 3 267.6 3 278.6 0.3 Utilizatio n 2 5.4 2 577.2 2 597.2 0.8 T rade 394.1 392.5 385.9-1.7 Ending sto cks 661.9 681.9 679.8-0.3 percent Wo rld sto ck-to - use ratio (%) 25.7 26.2 25.4 M ajo r expo rters sto ck-to - disappearance ratio (%) 16.0 17.2 16.7 AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 12
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO World Rice Supply Demand Outlook AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO Source: FAO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 13
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO Rice: latest forecasts across sources AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO Source: AMIS Market Monitor- No.47- April 17 Large discrepancies in stocks estimates across sources, mostly because of large difference in production figures for selected Asian countries and uncertainty over the level of stocks in hina. Rice major exporters stocks are likely to shrink to a multi-year low (Thailand and the US in particular) so if production falls short of current projections, the rice market could become tighter AO 17AO 17AO 170.5 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 14
17 17 World Wheat Supply Demand Outlook AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 15/ 16 16/ 17 17/ 18 estim. f'cast million to nnes hang e: 2 0 17/ 18 o ver 2 0 16 / 17 P ro ductio n 735.3 760.1 739.9-2.7 Supply 942.2 985.2 980.3-0.5 Utilizatio n 713.8 737.6 734.7-0.4 AO 17AO 17AO T rade 166.7 173.0 169.0-2.3 Ending sto cks 225.1 240.5 246.5 2.5 percent Wo rld sto ck-to - use ratio (%) 30.5 32.7 32.7 M ajo r expo rters sto ck-to - disappearance ratio (%) 17.0 19.3 18.8 AO 17AO 17AO % 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 15
17 17 Wheat: latest forecasts across sources AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO Source: AMIS Market Monitor- No.47- April 17 AO 17AO 17AO Main differences are in India and hina where AMIS forecasts higher buildups of inventories and in the US, where AMIS predicts lower drawdowns than the IG. 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 16
17 In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat is emerging from dormancy in the main production areas and conditions are generally favourable at this early stage of the season. In the US, conditions are mixed as dryness has developed in the primary growing area of the southern Great Plains. 17 Wheat rop onditions AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 Source: rop Monitor, GEOGLAM-AMIS 17
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO Selected countries: wheat area AO 17AO 17AO 15/ 16 16/ 17 17/ 18 estim. f'cast 000 ha hang e: 2 0 17/ 18 o ver 2 0 16 / 17 AO 17AO 17AO A ustralia 12 793 12 957 12 773-1.4% anada 9 577 8 878 8 970 1.0% US A 19 149 17 762 17 000-4.3% Kazakhstan 11 800 12 000 12 063 0.5% R ussian F. 25 582 27 700 26 112-5.7% AO 17AO 17AO Ukraine 6 840 6 152 6 397 4.0% EU 26 533 26 490 26 290-0.8% % 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 18
17 17 Wheat Production 1/ AO 17AO 17AO 15 16 17 hange: estim. f'cast 17 over 16 million tonnes European Union 160.5 144.5 152.0 5.2 hina (Mainland) 130.2 128.9 128.8 0.0 India 86.5 92.9 96.6 4.0 Russian Federation 61.8 73.3 69.0-5.9 United States 56.1 62.9 50.0 -.4 anada 27.6 31.7 28.6-9.8 Pakistan 25.1 25.5 26.0 2.0 Ukraine 26.5 26.1 25.0-4.1 Australia 24.2 35.1 24.0-31.7 Turkey 22.6.6 21.0 1.9 Kazakhstan 13.7 15.0 13.5-9.9 Argentina 11.3 18.4 18.6 1.1 Iran Islamic Rep. of 11.5 13.5 13.0-3.7 Egypt 9.0 9.0 8.8-2.2 Other countries 77.6 72.6 73.7 1.6 AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO World 735.3 760.9 739.9-2.7 AO 17AO 17AO 1/ ountries listed according to their position in global production (average 14-16). % 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 19
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO World Wheat Trade Down 2.3% in 17/18 Selected wheat importers Major wheat exporters AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO Lower imports by hina and India to push global trade down in 17/18 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 US and Australia to export less but larger exports from EU and Argentina
17 17 hina: Wheat Supply-Demand Balance 09/10-17/18 AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 21
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO IG Wheat Price Index Wheat Prices BOT wheat futures September delivery AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 22
17 Wheat Forward urves & Investment Flows Forward urves 17 AO 17AO 17AO FT ommitments of Traders AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO Forward curves maintain their upward sloping structures (contango), indicating ample supplies into the new season In March managed money added 85000 contracts to its net short position. AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 23
17 17 World Maize Supply Demand Outlook AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 15/ 16 16/ 17 17/ 18 estim. f'cast million tonnes hang e: 2 0 17/ 18 o ver 2 0 16 / 17 P ro ductio n 1 008.2 1 038.0 1 050.8 1.2 Supply 1 233.9 1 256.1 1 266.5 0.8 Utilizatio n 1 010.8 1 037.8 1 054.9 1.6 AO 17AO 17AO T rade 139.6 136.9 134.0-2.1 Ending sto cks 218.2 215.7 6.8-4.1 percent Wo rld sto ck-to - use ratio (%) 21.0.5 18.8 M ajo r expo rters sto ck-to - disappearance ratio (%) 11.7 13.0 14.3 AO 17AO 17AO % 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 24
17 17 Maize: latest forecasts across sources AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO Source: AMIS Market Monitor- No.47- April 17 AO 17AO 17AO Estimates and forecasts may differ across sources for many reasons, including different methodologies and in particular, the allocation of crops in the southern hemisphere to a particular marketing season. 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 25
17 Overall conditions in the southern hemisphere are favourable with very good production prospects. In Brazil, spring planted crops are being harvested under exceptional conditions with increased production prospects. The summer (larger) planted crop is under favourable conditions. In Argentina, harvesting has begun under favourable conditions. In South Africa, conditions are very good and production is expected to be above-average. In the northern hemisphere, maize is mostly out of season. 17 Maize crop conditions AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 Source: rop Monitor, GEOGLAM-AMIS 26
17 17 Maize Production 1/ AO 17AO 17AO Maize production: leading producers1/ 15 16 17 hange: estim. f'cast 17 over 16 AO 17AO 17AO million tonnes United States 345.5 384.8 357.0-7.2 hina (Mainland) 224.7 219.6 216.0-1.6 Brazil 85.3 63.4 88.0 38.9 European Union 59.6 61.0 67.0 9.8 Argentina 33.8 39.8 47.0 18.1 Ukraine 23.3 28.0 25.8-7.7 Mexico 24.7 27.6 28.0 1.5 India 22.6 26.2 26.0-0.6 Indonesia 19.6 19.7.0 1.5 Russian Federation 13.2 15.3 14.5-5.1 anada 13.6 13.2 12.9-2.6 Nigeria 9.5 9.6 9.7 1.1 Philippines 7.0 8.1 8.1 0.4 Egypt 7.0 7.0 7.1 1.4 Ethiopia 7.2 7.2 7.2 0.0 Other countries 111.7 107.7 116.5 5.2 AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO World 1008.2 1038.0 1050.8 1.8 1/ ountries listed according to their position in global production (average 14-16). % 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 27
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO Global Maize Stocks To Decline in 17/18 AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 28
17 17 World Maize Trade Down 2% in 17/18 AO 17AO 17AO Imports: declining due to smaller purchases mainly in southern Africa Exports: down sharply in the US but higher shipments projected for Argentina and Brazil AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 29
17 17 hina - Maize Supply Demand Balance 09/10-17/18 AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 30
17 17 IG Maize Price Index Maize Prices AO 17AO 17AO BOT maize futures December delivery AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 31
17 Forward urves 17 Maize Forward urves & Investment Flows AO 17AO 17AO FT ommitments of Traders AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO Forward curves maintain their upward sloping structures (contango), indicating ample supplies into the new season. Managed money made its second directional change since the New Year, this time reversing its net long to a net short stance as it sold about 240 000 contracts (30 million tonnes) m/m. AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 32
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO Source: AMIS Market Monitor- No.47- April 17 AO 17AO 17AO Weather/plantings Geopolitical risks Exchange rates, oil prices, etc. 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 33
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 34
17 17 AO 17AO 17AO Thank you for your attention AO 17AO 17AO ontact details: AO 17AO 17AO AMIS-Secretariat@fao.org Tel: +39-06-57053264 www.amis-outlook.org AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural Outlook onference, Beijing, -21 April l 17 35