Sustainability of Nuclear Power Dave Torgerson Senior Technical Advisor (emeritus) AECL Carleton Sustainable Energy Research Centre Seminar Series 2011 March 28 UNRESTRICTED / ILLIMITÉ 1
The drivers for nuclear growth Population Growth Economics Environment Energy Security 2
ACR-1000 POPULATION & ECONOMICS 3
Billion UN Projections of world population 11 10 1. Growth in demand for everything 2. Human advancement 3. Societal changes High 34% more people 9 Medium 8 Low 7 6 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: UNPD (2006) Year 4
Cumulative capacity (million m3/day) Example: Population growth drives need for water 40 30 20 World Desalination Capacity Annual increase in demand for fresh water is 64 billion cubic meters 10 0 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2004 Source: OECD/NEA (2008) from Pacific Institute (2007) 5
Canadian generation costs (US$/MWh) 5% Discount Rate 10% Discount Rate 40 45 35 40 30 35 25 20 15 10 5 Fuel O&M Capital 30 25 20 15 10 5 Fuel O&M Capital 0 0 Source: OECD/NEA/IEA (2005) 6
Pt Lepreau ENVIRONMENT 7
Gt CO 2 /yr Sources of global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions 10 8 6 4 2 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 Source: OECD/NEA Outlook (2008). Data from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Electricity Plants Industry (excl. cement) Road transport Residential & service Deforestation Other Refineries, etc International transport 8
Emissions produced by 1 kwh of electricity based on life-cycle analysis Generation Option Greenhouse gas emissions gram equiv CO 2 /kwh SO 2 emissions milligram/kwh NO x emissions milligram/kwh NMVOC milligram/kwh Particulate matter milligram/kwh Hydropower 2-48 5-60 3-42 0 5 Coal - modern plant 790-1182 700-32321 700-5273 18-29 30-663 Nuclear 2-59 3-50 2-100 0 2 Natural gas (combined cycle) Biomass forestry waste combustion 389-511 4-15000 13+-1500 72-164 1-10 15-101 12-140 701-1950 0 217-320 Wind 7-124 21-87 14-50 0 5-35 Solar photovoltaic 13-731 24-490 16-340 70 12-190 Source: Hydropower-Internalized Costs and Externalized Benefits; Frans H. Koch; International Energy Agency (IEA)- Implementing Agreement for Hydropower Technologies and Programmes; Ottawa, Canada, 2000 Adopted from S Kuran, CNS presentation 2011Feb 9
Enhanced CANDU 6 IMPACT ON GROWTH 10
Percent of electric power Nuclear power s share in 2009 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Nuclear Power (2007 data) OECD: 2163 TW-hr, pop 1.2B China: 65.3 TW-hr, pop 1.3B ~33 x increase to reach OECD Chinese Reactors (2011 data) 13 operating 27 under construction 50 planned 110 proposed to 2030 Canada France USA China India World Source: World Nuclear Association and OECD/NEA, 2011 Feb 11
Number of plants World nuclear power plants 443 450 400 350 322 300 250 200 156 150 100 62 50 0 Operating Under Construction On Order or Planned Proposed to 2030 Source: World Nuclear Association, 2011 Feb 12
GWe Projected nuclear capacity: OECD/NEA scenarios 1500 1200 900 600 Existing capacity OECD/NEA high OECD/NEA low End of the century: prepare for a world with a few thousand as opposed to a few hundred reactors 300 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 13
FUEL SUPPLY Bruce 14
tu/yr Annual world uranium production capacity 140 000 120 000 Existing, Committed, Planned, Prospective 100 000 Existing and Committed NEA High Demand 80 000 60 000 40 000 World Uranium Production NEA Low Demand 20 000 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: OECD/NEA (2008) 15
CANDU fuel cycle advantages Steam Steam Generators Coolant Pumps Highest neutron efficiency Simple fuel bundle design Adapt to optimize fuel cycle Can test individual bundles On-power fuelling Many fuels can be used Turbines Generator Fuel Fuelling Machine Condenser Fuel Channels Moderator 16
CANDU fuel cycles Enriched Fuel (3.5%) Natural Uranium 0.7% U235 Natural Fuel Enrichment Slightly Enriched Uranium Fuel (0.8 to 1.2%) LWR Dry Processing DUPIC Fuel 0.9% U, 0.6% Pu Plutonium Recycling Uranium Mine Thorium Cycle Recovered Uranium (0.9%) Actinide Burning Plutonium Recycling Reprocessing 17
Flux comparison for 1 GWe Reactors Actinide Destruction Reactor Type Fissile Inventory (tonnes) Thermal Flux (n/cm 2 -sec) Fast Flux (500 kev, n/cm 2 - sec) CANDU 1 1.4e14 0.7e14 PWR 2-3 8e13 3e14 FBR 3-4 --- 0.5e16 1e16 CANDU Actinide Fuel in Inert Matrix 0.05 5e15 0.7e14 Source: Dastur & Gagnon 1994 18
Using LWR waste streams 470 t/a DU enrichment tails Blend RU & DU to make NUE fuel Fabricate CANDU fuel Burn in CANDU 6 13.80 GW e Enrichment DU 1420 t/a 0.85% U-235 RU 1890 t/a NUE Reprocessing RU Simple CANDU NUE Option No enrichment costs 32% more energy from the mined U Adopted from S Kuran, CNS presentation 2011Feb 1420 t/a 0.85% Enrich Fabricate PWR fuel Burn in PWR U-235 RU 190 t/a LEU 9.8 GW e Reprocessing RU 1230 t/a depleted RU waste stream Complex PWR RU Option Enrichment costs ~$220M Less energy extracted 19
Example: RU/DU in Qinshan MOU: AECL, TQNPC, CNNFC and 2010 March, 12 bundles into two fuel channels 2010 Oct, 4 bundles removed for PIE 12 more bundles loaded All testing to date is successful 2011 April, finish irradiations Discussing full core loading Adopted from S Kuran, CNS presentation 2011Feb 20
+ n t 1/2=22m t 1/2=27d THORIUM 3-4x more abundant than U Found in China and India High thermal conductivity Cleaner, much less Minor Actinides 21
Favourable U-233 neutronics in thermal region 22
Long-lived actinide production Uranium Pu-239 Thorium U-233 U-236 Pu-241 Pu-240 U-234 U-235 Pu-242 Am-241 Np-237 Pu-238 U-236 Am-243 Cm-244 Cm-242 Am-242 Am-242* U-234 Np-237 23
Th/LEU fuel for CANDU 43-element Standard CANFLEX & 37-element Bundle Designs LEU ThO 2 NU Standard CANFLEX Bundle With 8 large Natural Thorium Pins Standard 37-element Bundle All NU Fuel Pins Adopted from S Kuran, CNS presentation 2011Feb 24
Uranium consumption reductions Reactor Fuel/Burnup NU Consumption [tnu/twh] Improvement from PWR reference PWR PWR Reference PWR PWR Ref. High Burnup CANDU 6 C6 Reference Thorium CANDU TCR Th-LEU LEU : 4.0 wt% 235 U 42 MWd/kgHE LEU: 4.5 wt% 235 U 50 MWd/kgHE NU: 0.71 wt% 7.5 MWd/kgHE LEU/Th: 1.65 wt% 235 U 20 MWd/kgHE 25.3 --- 21.3 16% 18.9 25% 14.3 43% Adopted from S Kuran, CNS presentation 2011Feb 25
Demountable fuel bundles 26
Thorium direct recycle (no reprocessing) using demountable elements UO 2 fuel in outer two rings Reduces U requirements to <11 t/twh and builds up a store of 1.5% U-233 ThO 2 inner elements ThO 2 elements demounted and recycled (1.5% U-233) UO 2 fuel in outer two Rings burned to < 0.3 % U-235 27
NU Consumption T NU\TWh CANDU thorium fuel cycles 20 18 16 14 12 75% PWR 76% CNU 57% PWR 57% CNU 43% PWR Reduction in U requirements from CANDU NU (CNU) and PWR 42 MWd/kgHE reference 10 8 25% CNU 19% PWR 6 4 0% 2 0 CANDU NU Th-LEU Once Through Th-LEU Element Recycle Th/U233 Recycle, FP Removal Self- Sufficient Th Cycle 28
China/Canada Thorium CANDU Reactor (TCR) AECL and Chinese partners (TQNPC, CNNFC and NPIC) have shown that the C6 reactor, with minimal changes, can use Th-LEU fuel with good uranium utilization Independent Chinese expert panel reviewed results and have made the following recommendation to government: All experts unanimously recommended that China shall build two more CANDU Heavy Water Reactor units to utilize various advantages of this type of fuel. The parties are pursuing preliminary technical and planning work for TCR and Th fuel development Source: S Kuran, CNS presentation, 2011Feb 29
Pickering CONCLUDING REMARKS 30
Energy Transfer From a Fission Fragment Neutron Absorption M-C simulation using SRIM Fission 200 MeV Fission Fragment Energy Loss 96% Energy to Electrons 4% Energy to Recoils d~50 m Fission Fragments, 170 MeV 31
The future will be as exciting as we choose to make it. 32