LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP Climate Science: EPA Decision-Making and Education Efforts Presented by: Dr. Marcus Sarofim and Erin Birgfeld March 28, 2011
Climate Science: EPA decision-making and education efforts Marcus Sarofim Erin Birgfeld March 28, 2011 3/28/2011 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2
The EPA and Climate Science The Endangerment Finding Climate Science: Physics and History Climate Science: Indicators of Change Climate Science: The Future The EPA Website 3
PART ONE Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act http://epa.gov/climatechange/endangerment.html 4
Supreme Court Decision Massachusetts v. EPA (April 2007) Found that GHG, including CO 2, are air pollutants under the Clean Air Act Required EPA to determine whether or not emissions of GHG from new motor vehicles cause or contribute to air pollution reasonably anticipated to endanger public health or welfare, unless scientifically impossible to determine EPA required to respond to petition for rulemaking requesting EPA regulate CO 2 and other GHG from motor vehicles http://www.supremecourtsus.gov/opinions/06pdf/05-1120.pdf 5
Scientific Basis of the Endangerment Finding Comprehensive and Transparent Review Science comes from many highly respected, peer reviewed sources: IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) US GCRP (US Global Change Research Program) National Academy of Science 6
The Conclusion: On December 7, 2009, EPA found that there is scientific evidence that climate change and greenhouse gases endanger the health and welfare of the American people. 7
EPA Begins To Take Action Administrator s Principles Common Sense Cost-Effectiveness Clarity, Achievability and Flexibility Transparency Focus on the largest emitters 8
Let s pause for questions from the audience
PART TWO The Basics of Climate Science 10
Background How many of you teach climate change in the classroom? [Click on the smiley face] What are some challenging science questions that you get? (Raise hand to volunteer) 1 2 3 11
Poll: First Studies of Climate Change The Greenhouse Effect Physics of Carbon Dioxide Calculated effects of Doubled CO 2 Accurate Measurements of Atmospheric CO 2 1800 1850 1850 1900 1900 1950 1950 present 12
GHGs: Water, Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Ozone, CFCs, fluorinated gases transparent gases: Nitrogen, Oxygen, Argon Other climate substances: Clouds, aerosols (sulfates, black carbon) Source: USEPA, Climate Change Indicators in the United States 2010 13
The Climate System Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007 14
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GHGs, Temperature, Ice Sheets: 600,000 years of history Source: IPCC, 2007 16
Recent Changes in GHGs Gray bars = range over last 650,000 years. Source: IPCC, 2007 17
Recent GHG concentrations reflect the increase in emissions Source: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/#mlo_data 18
US and Global GHG Emissions US GHG Emissions and Sinks by Economic Sector (1990 2008) Global GHG Emissions by Region (1990 2005) Source: USEPA, Climate Change Indicators in the United States 2010 19
Global Temperatures Have Increased El Nino La Nina Chichon Pinatubo Source: WoodForTrees 20
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007 21
Let s pause for questions from the audience
PART THREE: INDICATORS 23
Rate of Temperature Change United States: 1901 2008 EPA Indicators Report: Original Data from NOAA 24
Observed Changes in Glaciers Glaciers and ice caps provide among the most visible indications of the effects of climate change. Although there is local and regional variability, there has been considerable mean retreat rates in all regions. Source: USEPA, Climate Change Indicators in the United States 2010 25
Observed Sea Ice Decline 2007 represented a record minimum of sea ice extent in the Arctic since 1979 (2010 and 2008 are 2 nd and 3 rd lowest) Temporal anomalies in sea ice extent with respect to 1979 2000 average Both winter and summer ice extent exhibit a negative trend, with values of 2.7 % per decade for March and 11.6% per decade for September over the period 1979 2010. Source: Perovich et al. (2010); National Snow and Ice Data Center; USEPA, Climate Change Indicators in the United States 2010 26
Observed Sea Level Rise Sea level rise: Ocean heating and expansion plus glacier melt plus land ice sheet melt plus/minus water withdrawals and impoundment ~2 mm/year over 20 th century ~3 mm/year last two decades Source: EPA Climate Change Indicators Report 27
Relative Sea Level, US, 1958 2008 Sea level rise: Global mean plus local change. Local change can result from glacial rebound, water withdrawals, erosion, localized oceanic heating patterns, and even gravity changes Source: EPA Climate Change Indicators 28
Change In US Precipitation, 1901 2008 EPA Indicators Report, Original Source NOAA 29
Increased Single Day Precipitation EPA Indicators Report 30
Birds Moving North, 1966 2005 Change in the latitude of the bird center of abundance for 305 bird species in North America EPA Indicators Report 31
Ocean Acidification, 1700s to 1990s EPA Indicators Report 32
Let s pause for questions from the audience
Part Three: The Future 34
What can we expect in the future? Climate models predict that without reductions in GHGs, temperatures will continue to rise. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007 35
Future Warming is Uncertain We can buy a better spin by reducing emissions Source: MIT Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change 36
Patterns of change per 1 C annual warming Source: National Research Council (2010); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007 37
The regional pattern of changes depends on the indicator In the continental United States, the ensemble mean projection is for an increase in precipitation in the winter and a reduction in the summer. In contrast, Canada is more robustly wetter and Mexico drier. More rain in extreme one day events, but longer period between events? Source: National Research Council (2010); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007 38
Global Precipitation Change There is a general increase in precipitation in subpolar and polar latitudes, and a decrease in the subtropics, and an increase once again in many equatorial regions. In the continental United States, this ensemble mean projection is for an increase in precipitation in the winter and a reduction in the summer. In contrast, Canada is more robustly wetter and Mexico drier. Source: National Research Council (2010); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007
Visualizing heat: What does 6 to 13 degrees F local warming mean? Source: Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (2007) 40
Forest Fires Projected Changes in Wildfires in the US Source: National Research Council (2010); Figure: Rob Norheim Warming of 1 C (relative to 1950 2003) is expected to produce increases in median area burned by about 200 400%. The Pacific Northwest and forested regions of the Rockies and the Sierra are particularly vulnerable. Over time, extensive warming and associated wildfires could exhaust the fuel for fire in some regions, as forests are completely burned. Uncertainties include understanding of local soil moisture changes with global warming. 41
Take home Science messages Greenhouse gases (GHGs) warm the climate. Human activities are increasing GHG concentrations. Climate warming and the many consequences of that warming are happening and will continue. There is uncertainty about the magnitude and rate of change of the warming and of the resulting impacts. 42
Let s pause for questions from the audience
Part Four: Tour of Key EPA Website and Resources Preview of EPA s New Students Site (To be launched in early April) Targets 6 8 th grade students Comprehensive site with lots of scientific information Interactive elements include Climate 101 video (~2 minutes long) Animations on greenhouse effect and carbon cycle A series of Climate Expeditions where students explore the impacts of key climate impacts around the world 44
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Quick Web Tour of Other Materials for Educators Useful Climate Science Materials Indicators Report Back to Basics pamphlet Climate Fact Sheet Series Taking Action and Reducing Your Carbon Footprint (GHG reduction): EPA/DOE s Energy Star and Energy Star for Kids What you can do at home, at the office, on the road, and at school EPA s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Calculator Adaptation Efforts Wildlife and Wildlands toolkit FAQ Database
Let s pause for questions from the audience
Feedback for EPA What is your go to source for teaching climate change in your classroom? (Raise your hand to volunteer) 1 2 3 49
Supplemental Slides 3/28/2011 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 50
New/Clean Energy Technology Energy Efficiency/Conservation Resources for Taking Action Alternate Approaches
Resources for Taking Action Alternate Approaches Reducing waste Public Health Reducing air pollution
Resources for Taking Action Climate Change Adaptation Sea Level Rise Heat Health Issues Land Use/Greenways Wildlife
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