Future Transportation Activity and Modal Split in a Higher Oil Price Economy 1 Werner Rothengatter Universität Karlsruhe (TH)
Future Transportation Activity and Modal Split in a Higher Oil Price Economy 2 1 Transport and economic growth 2 Rapid development in tiger countries 3 Influence of oil prices on transport demand 4 Influence of technology development and of government decisions 5 Conclusions
1 Transport and Economic Growth 3 1.1 Development in the past 1.2 Causality 1.3 Mobility of passengers and goods 1.4 Forecasts
1.1 4
1.1 5
1.2 Causality: Elasticities 6 High-density regions Low-density regions Endogeneous variable Explaining variables Elasticity p-value Elasticity p-value Level of Education 1 0,24 0,00 0,33 0,00 Centrality 0,10 0,01 0,02 0,21 Transport infrastructure endowment Telecommunication networks Recreation and leisure areas GRP per capita 0,07 0,05 0,06 0,09 µ 0,47 0,00 0,19 0,00 0,08 0,03 0,02 0,30 Total 0,96 0,62 1 Education indicator differs for both regions (see equations 3.9a and 3.9b)
1.3 Decreasing Population 7 Changing Age Structure Germany West Germany East Source: Mannheimer Forschungsinstitut Ökonomie und demoskopischer Wandel, 2003 Read: Stochastic Forecast Pink: Deterministic Forecast.
1.3 Change of population 8 Modelling the needs of the aging society
1.4 Development of Mobility 9
1.4 Development of Mobility 10
1.4 Forecasts of Motorization 11 Development of Motorization China Other CSAm Brazil Eastern EU Mexico S. Korea Un. Kingdom 2020 1999 1990 Italy Australasia United States 0 200 400 600 800 1000 vehicles per 1000 persons
2 Rapid Development in Tiger Countries 12 2.1 Focus on China 2.2 Population and economic perspectives 2.3 Motorization 2.4 Transport development 2.5 Transportation Fuels Consumption
2.2 Growth of the economy in China 13 GDP in 100 mill. yuan 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 GDP 0 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
2.3 GDP and Motorization 14 1000 Cars and personal light trucks - SUVs/ 1000 people 100 10 1 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000 GDP Capita, 1990 USD (PPP) United States 1910-2003 China 1987-2003 Korea 1970-2002 Japan 1965-2000 w. Germany 1960-1995
2.4 Transport Development 15
2.4 Modal shares in Chinese Cites 16
2.5 Development of Fuel Consumtion in China 17
2.5 Fuel Consumption Scenarios for China 18 Total Primary Energy, PJ 6000 140 Total Primary Energy, MTOE 5000 120 4000 100 3000 80 60 2000 40 1000 20 Road Ahead 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year 0 Oil Saved Integrated Transport
2.5 Word-wide Energy Consumption and the Role of the Transport Sector 19
3 Influence of Oil Prices on Transport Demand 20 3.1 Transport demand price-inelastic? 3.2 Multi-dimenional reactions 3.3 Example: Passenger transport demand in Germany 3.4 Example: Fuel price variance in the EU
3.3 Development of transport demand 21 in mature economies is less dynamic person-kilometer in Billions 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 until 1990 only former West German states from 1991 including Eastern German states 100 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 year 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (author s illustration, sources: MOP, Verkehr in Zahlen 02/03)
22 4 Influence of technology development, behaviour change, and of government decisions 4.1 EST project of the OECD 4.2 BAU and EST scenarios 4.3 Main drivers and the relationship to higher oil prices 4.4 Kyoto mechanisms 4.5 IPCC challenge
4.1 Operationalising EST: Derived Targets for 2030 H & E objectives Action targets EU by 2010 Noise WHO Guidelines met Air quality (NO 2, PM) WHO Guidelines met Critical ozone levels attained Acidification / Eutrophication Critical Loads met Climate protection Stabilising CO2 concentrations Noise sources -50% to -70% (---) Air emissions: -50% NOx;-99% PM; (- 51% NOx) -90% NOx,VOC (- 54% VOC) SO x,no x emissions -75% to -90%, (- 77% SOx) -50% NH 3 (- 14% NH3) GHG / CO 2 emissions OECD:-80%, global:-50% (- 8% CO 2 ) 23
24 4.2 Modal Split for BAU and EST Scenarios Passenger Freight Passenger km 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 BAU EST tonne km 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 BAU EST 500 200 0 1990 2030 2030 0 1990 2030 2030 Aircraft Passenger cars Public transport + non-motorised Waterways Rail freight Heavy trucks Light duty vehicles
EST in 2030: Individual Mobility New forms of flexible use and integarted mobility services: e.g. Bremen card, rail link and MobilityCarsharing in Switzerland.
EST in 2030: Public Transport Greater use of soft modes, combined with public transport and new mobility services for short distance travel, new infrastructure developed: e.g. railtram/bus links in Karlsruhe.
EST in 2030: Passenger Railways Rail is all electric, with increases in high speed modes, efficiency and capacity, system interconnections are greatly developed (e.g. rail-air link).
EST in 2030: Freight and Combined Transport Hydrogen used directly and in fuel cells for freight vehicles. Improved logistics, and longer-distance freight travel replaced by rail.
EST in 2030: Aviation Aircraft are much more fuelefficient, conventional types. ICT largely used instead of long-distance business travel. Short-distance air travel is greatly replaced by rail.
4.3 Transport Activity in 2030 Percentage 160 140 120 100 more environmentally friendly mode less environmentally friendly mode BAU 2030 EST 2030 1990 +21% 30 80 60 40 20 0
4.4 Evaluation of Measures to Reach the Targets Demand Management 59% Occupancy Mode shifts 7% 15% Technology 41% Demand Management 54% Mode shifts 24% Loadfactor 11% 31 Technology 46% Transport avoidance 26% 11% Downsizing Transport avoidance 19% 0% PASSENGER FREIGHT
5 Conclusions 32 5.1 Heterogeneity of transport development 5.2 Main drive in tiger economies 5.3 Industrialization in fast motion with growing awareness of risks 5.4 Oil prices have not reached the threshold to change consumer s behaviour substantially 5.5 Energy saving strategies will yield higher effects in the next 10-20 years compared with radical technological innovations