Michael Sampson - June 21, 2017 Regulatory Challenges of Technical Innovation POWER SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION
Overview The Regulatory Challenges of Technical Innovation as seen on the Electric Power System My Perspective Operations Management and Planning The Policy Drivers & Technology Responses Power System Basics and the Integration Challenges Wind, Solar, Storage Resultant Regulatory Challenges
A Few Power System Basics Utilities exert control from the generation side of the equation Traditionally The Industry has evolved to meet instantaneous customer demand Generation = System Load As more variable generation is installed, the generation side becomes less controlled Future State Utilities will look to gain more control on the load side to maintain balance
The Policy Drivers of Change Renewable Electricity Regulations Air Emission Hard Caps (CO 2, SO 2, NO x, Hg) Equivalency Agreements on CO 2 Emissions Federal Regulations for Coal Fired Generation (2015) Alberta Coal Phase-Out Feed In Tariffs (Wind, Tidal, Biomass, Solar) Demand Side Management (Efficiency Programs, DR) Carbon Tax / Cap & Trade Stack or Fleet Emission Intensity Market Deregulation Renewable to Retail
Power System Evolution & Innovations Renewable Generation (Wind, Solar, Biomass, Tidal) Repurposing / Re-Fueling existing assets (base-loaded steam) Storage (distributed/grid scale, HPS, battery) Distributed Generation (Net-metered, Feed-In-Tariffs) System Control will need to evolve from monitor and control of dozens of generating sites to thousands Smart Grid control of power system loads (again requiring aggregation of thousands/millions of customer sites) Communications networks become an essential enabler Standardization of protocols Secure from cyber attacks 5
It s not only about Energy... Energy (kwh, MWh, GWh) Power (MW) Firm Capacity Regulation & Load Following Operating Reserves Frequency Response / System Inertia Reactive Power (Mvar) for Voltage support http://www.nerc.com/comm/other/essntlrlbltysrvcstskfrcdl/erstf Framework Report - Final.pdf
3 NERC videos that are worth a look... https://vimeopro.com/nerclearning/erstf-1 7
Load & Net Load (MW) Wind & Solar (MW) CAISO s Duck Curve 46,000 44,000 42,000 40,000 8,000 MW in 2 hours Load, Wind & Solar Profiles High Load Case January 2020 6,300 MW in 2 hours 13,500 MW in 2 hours 10,000 9,000 8,000 38,000 7,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 20,000 0 0:00 1:30 3:00 4:30 6:00 7:30 9:00 10:30 12:00 13:30 15:00 16:30 18:00 19:30 21:00 22:30 0:00 Load Net Load Wind Solar
NSPI Wind Generation Installation Timeline Dec. 14 380 MW April 16 580 MW Dec. 05 30 MW Utility Owned IPP (PPA s) Feed In Tariffs 9
A Week of System Load & Wind Generation System Load (MW) Wind Generation (MW) 10
Germany s Solar Eclipse March 2015
DAS IST NICHT GUT!!
Installed Generating Capacity in Germany 90 GW of Installed RE 200 GW System Peak Approx.80 GW 2016 105 GW of Installed Conventional Generation 13
German Energy Production by Source 2016 Hydro, Biomass, Wind, Solar: 33.4% of Total Energy in 2016 Coal Fleet Capacity Factor =54% Wind & Solar: 47% of installed capacity responsible for 21% of energy production in 2016 14
Back to the Eclipse...So what happened?
Blue Cut California Wild Fire - August 16 Transmission line faults arising from wild fires through a major corridor lead to the loss of 1200MW of pv solar generation (SoCalEdison) Los Angeles http://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/pages/1200-mw-fault-induced-solar-photovoltaic-resource-interruption-disturbance-report.aspx 16
Energy Storage Energy Storage answers many of the needs of grid operators for retiming the production of variable renewable generation Common forms: o Hydro & Hydro Pumped Storage o Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) o Thermal storage o Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) o Kinetic systems (fly wheels) Most are proven at some level > which will emerge to serve the power system? Grid scale storage does present challenges (4 hour performance to serve peak in California) Development in BESS has been significant (Li-Ion, flow...); as costs decrease enthusiasm is increases>> 17
TESLA Gigafactory No 1 - Nevada Future factory floor space 5 million square ft. 18
19 Mira Loma BESS SCE 20 MW / 80 MWh
TESLA Power Pack Modular Battery TESLA Power Pack Module 170 kwh Individual battery modules that can be individually replaced when needed. 20
BESS - Lots to learn... NSP BESS Pilot Project with Power Walls and Power Pack to gain construction and control experience and answer questions: Turnaround cycle efficiency (80%-90%) Flexibility of operation (services to the Grid and customers) Performance degradation (cycle life) Energy discharge profiles (sustained performance) Inverter controls Cold weather performance (standby losses) Always-On performance for customers (UPS) 21
Regulatory Challenges Utilities/SO s have the responsibility for system/customer reliability & safety; many have the obligation to serve Most Utilities will be implementing major changes to respond to policy direction and innovative technologies Jurisdiction to jurisdiction comparisons are helpful, but power systems have unique characteristics which can make the applicability of the comparisons difficult to assess Interpretation of Policy will present a variety of alternatives for implementation Some Policy directives are complimentary, some not... Distributed generation will challenge the utility model as we understand it > new rates for new services for customers (back-up/top-up, net zero) Transitional times How to judge the readiness of emerging technologies, and decide when to abandon traditional tools and approaches
Questions