Denie S Tampubolon Senior VP Upstream Business Development
Pertamina : Scope of Business PT Pertamina EP PT Pertamina EP Cepu PT Pertamina Hulu Indonesia PT Pertamina EP Cepu ADK PT Elnusa Tbk. PT Pertamina Hulu Energi PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT Pertamina Internasional EP PT Pertamina Drilling Services Indonesia PT Pertamina Gas PT Pertamina Trans Kontinental PT Pertamina Retail PT Pertamina Lubricants PT Pertamina Patra Niaga Pertamina International Timor SA Non Core Business: Patra Jasa, Pelita Air Service, Pertamina Trans Kontinental, Pertamina Bina Medika, Tugu Pratama Indonesia, Pertamina Dana Ventura, Pertamina Training & Consulting.
Indonesia Economic Forecast in 2030 3
Indonesia Oil & Gas Reserves and Production The oil supply - demand balance is projected to reach a deficit of up to 1.5 million bpd by 2025 BOPD 2,000 Oil Production & Consumption Oil Consumption BCFD 9 Gas Production & Consumption 8 Gas Production 1,500 7 6 1,000 5 4 3 Gas Production (domestic) 500 Oil Production 2 1 4 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Indonesia's oil reserves is at 3.6 Billion bbl (0.2% of the world's total reserves) 2025 SOURCE: BP Statistical Review 2016, SKKMigas Projection 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Indonesia's gas reserves is at 100 TCF (1.5% of total world reserves) 2020 2025
NOC Comparison: Domestic Production Portion 2015 Oil & Gas Production Thousand barrel equivalent per day Saudi Arabia 11,978 NOC Portion Percentage (%) 99 China 6,124 85 Algeria 2,792 78 Brazil 2,561 59 Norway 3,693 48 Nigeria 3,015 40 Malaysia 1,674 33 Indonesia 1,978 24 NOC Production Non NOC Production 5 SOURCE: Woodmackenzie, 2015
40 CONVENTIONAL 16 UNCONVENTIONAL 14 GEOTHERMAL MANAGED BY 6 SUBSIDIARIES
Aspiring Supply Growth to 2 Million BOEPD Increased oil and gas production from existing assets (exploration, EOR) as well as from business development (including transfer of post-expiry blocks in Indonesia). MBOEPD 2500 ASPIRATION 2000 1500 1000 ACTUAL 500 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 ASET EXISTING EKSISTING ASSETS ASET POST EXPIRY EX-TERMINASI ASSETS ACQUISITION AKUISISI 7 SOURCE: Pertamina
Upstream Business Development Strategies 1. Exploration : - Existing Assets - New Assets : Joint Study / Bid Round / PI 15% on new awarded block 2. Mature Fields : - Existing Assets : EOR - Post-Expiry Blocks in Indonesia : e.g. Mahakam, Sanga-sanga, OSES 3. Acquisition Overseas, production assets or discovered reserves 8 SOURCE: Pertamina
Geopolitics and Petroleum Industry Despite the strengthening of oil prices is not expected to happen anytime soon, there remains a chance for the upstream oil and gas investment in the short and long term. Geopolitics Improved geopolitics and security of Africa and the Middle East (Iraq, Uganda, Sudan, Libya), while parts of South America are in turmoil (Brazil, Venezuela). OPEC countries reached a production-cutting deal in December 2016 and backed by non-opec major producers (Russia, Norway) Economics World economic growth has not fully recovered hence weaker demand growth in developing countries (China, India) Policy of several countries in opening up opportunities for foreign investment (Mexico, Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia). US policy allows oil and gas exports from late of 2015. Oil & Gas Industry E&P companies and services adapt to lower oil prices with more focused and prudent investment efficiency (e.g. shale oil in North America). Substitution policy to more environmentally friendly and sustainable energy (solar power in the Middle East) or more competitive energy. => The world's oil supplies are to the point of equilibrium at lower oil prices. 9
Pertamina Exploration Way 10 SOURCE: Pertamina
Integrated Tarakan Basin Regional Study Background After several new discoveries, there is a need to develop comprehensive and integrated exploration concept throughout Pertamina working areas e.g Bunyu, Tarakan, Nunukan, Simenggaris, Bukat, E. Ambalat) Purpose Integrate existing play concept and identify/develop New Play concept throughout Tarakan Basin. Execution Team : Exploration team in Pertamina Upstream (holding), Pertamina EP, PHE/subsidiaries, UTC ~ 40 personnel, 24 months 11 Lokasi Studi Study Area
12 TERIMA KASIH
Upstream Business Development Strategies and Stages Investment Selection and Approval Stages Initiation ~90 ~45 Stages Evaluated opportunity Recommended opportunities for further evaluation DG 1 DG 2 Selection Stages Further Execution ~35 ~20 Evaluation ~10 Stages 6 Stages DIRECTORATE CORPORATE DG 3 DG 4 DG 5 Operation Stages 2016 Track Record 13 SOURCE: Pertamina
Priority for Upstream Business Development Priority on oil fields with production or development assets stages with potentially substantial reserves for Pertamina. Middle East & Africa Southeast Asia 14 SOURCE: Pertamina