UNESCO-Cedefop Global Skills Conference Skills, jobs and sustainable development: global trends and local challenges UNESCO s Skills Forecasting work in the Southern Mediterranean region Hélène Guiol, UNESCO, Youth, Literacy and Skills Development Section Camille Courchesne, UNESCO Expert
Contextual factors Youth unemployment rate in Arab region remains the highest globally, at 30.6% in 2016 (13.1% globally) Challenge particularly acute for female youth participation Geopolitical tensions, migration 2.6 millions young people without a job in 2017 in the region National strategic priorities include skills anticipation and forecasting as a means to tackle youth unemployment Jordan s Vision 2025 Tunisia s Skill Needs Startegic Intelligence and Prospective Platform Palestine s Permanent Framework for Strategic Partnership Morocco s National Strategy on Vocational Training 2021
Skills Forecasting as part of a Comprehensive Approach Quantitative and qualitative analysis Integrating the exercise within the policy-planning process involving various consultations Making the model output useful to policy-makers, to social partners, to youth Agreeing on a common analytical framework for key issues: gender, regions, migrants, transition from school to work Taking into consideration the socio-political context in the various countries: what can the past tell us about the future?
NET-MED Youth s National Expert Teams 52 youth organizations mobilized accross the region 7 stakeholders platforms being built at national level Regional and sub-regional knowlegdesharing events Capacity development to develop the model and use the results for policy-making and advocacy
Preliminary results 1 / Tunisia
Structural change is not happening fast in the short to medium terms Forecasted Cumulative Labour Demand by Occupations Tunisia 2009-2014 2015-2020 60% 59% 17% 14% 20% 20% 3% 6% Manager Professionals and Technicians Clerical, Services and Sales Workers Agriculture, Craft, Plant and Machine Workers and Elementary Occupations
The bulk of job creation stays in traditional sectors in the short to medium terms Forecasted Cumulative Labour Demand by Occupations Tunisia Autres services (ASER) Services financiers (SF) Transport et télécommunication (TT) Services de l'hôtellerie et de la restauration (HR) Commerce (COM) Bâtiment et travaux publics (BTP) Mine et Énergie Industries mécaniques et électriques (IME) Industries matériaux de construction, céramique et verre (IMCC) Industries chimiques (ICH) Industries manufactures diverses (IMD) Industries Textile, Habillement et cuir (IND, TEXT, HAB, CUI) Industries Agro-alimentaires (IAA) Agriculture (AGR) 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 2015-2020 2009-2014
At a macro level, the main issue is the lack of job creation Forecasted Cumulative Labour Demand and Supply by Occupations in Tunisia 4068622 Net Demand Supply 1264319 117642 36183 77083 113237 421994 370688 Manager Professionals and Technicians Clerical, Services and Sales Workers Agriculture, Craft, Plant and Machine Workers and Elementary Occupations
Preliminary results 2 / Palestine
Structural change is not happening fast in the short to medium terms Main employers in Palestine (Labour demand for selected year) (% of total employment for each year) 2010 2015 2020 1. Wholesale and retail trade (17%) 2. Public administration and defense (15%) 3. Construction (13%) 4. Agriculture, forestry and fishing (12%) 5. Manufacturing (11%) and Education (11%) 1. Construction (17%) and Wholesale and retail trade (17 %) 2. Public administration and defense (13%) 3. Manufacturing (12%) 4. Agriculture, forestry and fishing (11%) 1. Wholesale and retail trade (19%) 2. Public administration and defense (15%) 3. Construction (14%) 4. Manufacturing (11%) and Education (11%)
Job creation remains in traditional occupations in the short to medium terms Cumulative Jobs Openings 2016-2020 in Palestine 1 Sales Workers 19 313 2 Labourers in mining, construction, manufacturing and transport 12 927 3 Building and related trades workers, excluding electricians 12 828 4 Teaching professionals 12 003 5 Drivers and mobile plant operators 9 323
Challenges and Opportunities - Accessing and sharing data at a detailed level for analysis and planning - Forecasting beyond a 5-year time horizon a context of political turmoil - Integrating the informal employment - Reflecting the gender and youth issues on the labour market - Taking into account the unempolyment/underemployment rates of higher education graduates
Thank you!