Dr. Ron Heiniger Vernon G. James Research Center North Carolina State University
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 NC STATE UNIVERSITY 160 140 State Average Yield 142 bu per acre Total 126.5 mil bu Actual Yield bu/acre Corn Yield, bu acre -1 120 100 80 60 40 20 Linear (Actual Yield bu/acre) 0
Rainfall (inch) Temperature (F) NC STATE UNIVERSITY 3 2.5 Rainfall Low Temp High Temp 100 2 80 1.5 1 60 40 0.5 20 0 0
Current moisture is the result of very low southerly dip in the Jet Stream.. No sign of this shifting anytime soon expect continuation of current pattern Very Cold January through March if Jet Stream pattern persists then expect plenty of rain and possibility of snow Break expected in April and May with warm and dry conditions. Pattern will reemerge in early June with rain and cool weather to early July Final change in July to very hot and dry conditions into September
Corn Prices Jan 2012 to Today
Corn Price Required to Cover Input Costs Break Even Price ($ acre -1 ) Highest Yield (220 bu acre -1 ) Average Yield (134 bu acre -1 ) Lowest Yield (88 bu acre -1 ) $2.30 $3.78 $5.76
The Effects of Lower Corn Prices Remember that yield is a MULTIPLIER. High yield should still be the goal. To offset reductions in price yield must increase. Select inputs that have a HIGH likelyhood of increasing yield. Inputs must be able to increase yield enough to return revenue over cost. Select inputs that reduce environmental stresses and help maintain yield. An input that helps guarantee profitable yield levels reduces the risk of economic loss.
What Management Practices Contribute the Most to Yield and PROFIT? Technologies in Corn Production Advances in Hybrids Drought Hybrids Higher Plant Populations 43,000 vs 33,000 plants/acre Advanced Starter Fertilizers (in furrow) + (2x2) vs 2x2 only Seed Treatments enhancing emergence Fungicides improving kernel weight
Management Overall Summary - 2013 Hybrid DKC 64-69 DKC 68-05 1498 1690 2088 Syng. N68B Location Beaufort Pamlico Davidson Sampson Standard Standard Standard Standard Practice Practice Practice Practice 207.8 195.8* 248.0 202.3 245.1 235.6 207.4 189.8-5 to 46 bu per acre Advantage! 241.2 223.4 227.9 197.7 254.3 229.3 202.6 193.9 Risk = -$83.55 per acre Maximum Return over Cost= $123.45 per acre Breakeven = 18.6 bu/acre 215.1 198.8 221.9 207.0 246.5 225.3 187.8 166.9 220.8 225.5 259.5 233.6 243.0 226.8 197.5 170.2 236.3 236.4 267.7 231.1 233.2 216.6 190.7 186.8 194.2 198.8 203.3 196.2 241.3 221.1 156.5 111.0
Corn Yield, bu per acre NC STATE UNIVERSITY 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 53.2 115.7 28 20.5 82.1 115 64 bu Difference In drought tolerant vs conventional 0
Corn Yield, bu per acre NC STATE UNIVERSITY 350 300 302.8 310 311.3 300 289.5 250 200 150 100 50 0-19 bu Difference In drought tolerant vs conventional
Increasing Seeding Rates (33,000 vs 43,000) - 2013 Hybrid DKC 64-69 DKC 68-05 1498 1690 2088 Syng. N68B Location Beaufort Pamlico Davidson Sampson 43000 43000 33000 33000 43000 43000 33000 33000 43000 43000 33000 33000 27000 27000 37000 37000 207.8 196.3* 248.0 217.0 245.1 229.1 207.4 198.0* -4 to 48 bu per acre Advantage! 241.2 213.5 227.9 214.0 254.3 220.6 202.6 186.6 Risk = -$33.80 per acre Maximum Return over Cost= 215.1 209.0 221.9 $182.20 203.0 per acre 246.5 226.1 187.8 164.8 Breakeven = 7.5 bu/acre 220.8 212.9 259.5 228.7 243.0 236.2 197.5 188.7 236.3 236.5 267.7 219.3 233.2 224.8 186.8 175.5 194.2 198.2 203.3 191.7 241.3 224.7 156.5 135.3
No starter 11-37-0 @ 20 gal/acre
Added Starter Fertilizer (3-18-18 in furrow) - 2013 Hybrid DKC 64-69 DKC 68-05 1498 1690 2088 Syng. N68B Location Beaufort Pamlico Davidson Sampson 3-18-18 No 3-18-18 3-18-18 No 3-18-18 3-18-18 No 3-18-18 3-18-18 No 3-18-18 207.8 195.6* 248.0 219.4 245.1 229.6 207.4 198.6-9 to 47 bu per acre Advantage! Risk = -$22.50 to $25 per acre Maximum Return over Cost = $186.50 per acre Breakeven = 5.5 bu per acre 241.2 229.9* 227.9 220.5 254.3 244.8 202.6 201.6 215.1 214.3 221.9 225.4 246.5 257.5 187.8 180.0 220.8 212.2 259.5 235.0 243.0 233.7 197.5 193.7 236.3 234.2 267.7 220.1 233.2 225.7 186.8 184.8 194.2 205.3 203.3 209.2 241.3 223.1 156.5 134.3
Seed Treatment (Pentilex) - 2013 Hybrid DKC 64-69 DKC 68-05 1498 1690 2088 Syng. N68B Location Beaufort Pamlico Davidson Sampson Pentilex No Pentil Pentilex No Pentil Pentilex No Pentil Pentilex No Pentil 207.8 202.2 248.0 237.0 245.1 233.9* 207.4 202.6-19 to 35 bu per acre Advantage! 241.2 239.7 227.9 223.7 254.3 253.4 202.6 200.1 Risk = -$10.75 per acre Maximum Return over Cost= $147 per acre Breakeven = 2.3 bu per acre 215.1 212.6 221.9 222.1 246.5 257.9 187.8 185.7 220.8 230.2 259.5 247.5* 243.0 240.1 197.5 200.9 236.3 238.9 267.7 232.0 233.2 226.8 186.8 190.7 194.2 213.4 203.3 203.0 241.3 219.6 156.5 161.3
Corn Yield, bu per acre NC STATE UNIVERSITY 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100
Hybrid DKC 64-69 DKC 68-05 1498 1690 2088 Syng. N68B NC STATE UNIVERSITY Fungicide (Quilt Xcel @ V5) - 2013 Location Beaufort Pamlico Davidson Sampson Quilt No Quilt Quilt No Quilt Quilt No Quilt Quilt No Quilt 207.8 210.5 248.0 237.0 245.1 239.7 207.4 205.8-17 to 43 bu per acre Advantage! 241.2 237.7 227.9 228.2 254.3 246.2 202.6 201.3 Risk = -$14 per acre Maximum Return over Cost= $179.50 per acre Breakeven = 3.1 bu per acre 215.1 217.0 221.9 225.0 246.5 245.4 187.8 181.0 220.8 232.3 259.5 227.3 243.0 232.1 197.5 188.2* 236.3 235.7 267.7 224.0 233.2 233.0 186.8 188.2 194.2 211.6 203.3 205.9 241.3 225.2 156.5 175.7
Kernel Weight, g per 200 kernels NC STATE UNIVERSITY Increasing Yield through Kernel Weight Beaufort 2013 65 60 55 50 45 40 58.6 57.4 55.6 57
Conclusions GET VALUE FROM EVERY INPUT YOU APPLY!! Hybrid is the most important decision you make. Plant Population is the second most critical factor. Match plant population to hybrid capability, water availability, fertility, and risk. Change population from field to field based on yield history.
Conclusions With the best hybrid at optimum plant population starter is important but costly - USE STARTER TO AVOID RISK. Alternative (or addition) to starter fertilizer is the use of a nutrient seed treatment. Cost effective way to achieve the starter effect. Quilt at V5 increased kernel weight - Fungicides are most effective when the crop is under stress.