The Global Carbon Cycle In a nutshell We are mining fossil CO 2 and titrating into the oceans, (buffered by acid-base chemistry) Much of the fossil CO 2 will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years About half of fossil-fuel CO 2 is absorbed by poorly-quantified sink processes The strength and even the sign of potential carbon-climate feedback is among the most uncertain aspects of climate change in the 21 st century The Global Carbon Cycle Sources and Sinks About half the CO 2 released by humans is absorbed by oceans and land Ocean ~90 ~90 Atmosphere 775 + 4/yr 8 GtC/yr ~120 ~120 Missing carbon is hard to find among large natural fluxes Land Humans 38,000 2000 Scott Denning CSU ATS CMMAP 1
Where Has All the Carbon Gone? Into the oceans Solubility pump (CO 2 very soluble in cold water, but rates are limited by slow physical mixing) Biological pump (slow rain of organic debris) Into the land CO 2 Fertilization (plants eat CO2 is more better?) Nutrient fertilization (N-deposition and fertilizers) Land-use change (forest regrowth, fire suppression, woody encroachment but what about Wal-Marts?) Response to changing climate (e.g., Boreal warming) The Oceans Planetary Titration sfc Vertical Structure of the Oceans 4 km Warm buoyant raft floats at surface Cold deep water is only formed at high latitudes Very stable, hard to mix, takes ~ 1000 years! Icy cold, inky black, most of the ocean doesn t know we re here yet! Scott Denning CSU ATS CMMAP 2
ATS150 Global Climate Change Spring 2014 Observing the Deep Ocean The Global Carbon Cycle Observing the Deep Ocean WOCE/JGOFS/OACES Global Survey Data Anthropogenic DIC Estimated from total observed DIC using stoichiometry Most anthropogenic CO2 confined to top few 100 m Shoaling in tropics, convection at higher latitudes Some contamination of bottom water in Atlantic (both hemispheres) The Solubility Pump CO2 solubility in seawater depends sensitively on SST CO2 is highly soluble in cold high-lat waters Transported to deep ocean by convection and isopycnal mixing Dynamically-driven equatorial upwelling brings high-co2 water to surface Atmospheric transport closes the loop (Feeley et al, 2001) Scott Denning CSU ATS CMMAP 3
Dissolved CO 2 in Seawater Common Misconception #2 When we reduce or stop the burning of fossil fuel, the CO 2 will go away and things will go back to normal CO 2 from fossil fuel will react with oceans, but only as fast as they mix CO 2 dissolves (weakly) in seawater, forming a buffered system w/ bicarbonate and carbonate Strongly interacts with ph and alkalinity Archer et al, Ann. Rev. Earth Plan. Sci. (2009) Eventually, fossil CO 2 will react with rocks About 1/3 of today s emissions will stay in the air permanently! The Land Leaf Anatomy Stomate (pl. stomata) Scott Denning CSU ATS CMMAP 4
Carbon and Water Plants eat CO 2 for a living They open their stomata to let CO 2 in Water gets out as an (unfortunate?) consequence For every CO 2 molecule fixed about 400 H 2 O molecules are lost CO 2 Fertilization sink τ Friedlingstein et al, 1995 Increasing plant growth (NPP) due to enhanced atmospheric CO 2 Delayed increased respiration (residence time) Spatial pattern follows both NPP and residence τ Free Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE) Fumigation rings maintain steady levels of elevated CO 2 in canopies under changing weather conditions Control and replicated treatments test effects of CO 2, water, N, etc Scott Denning CSU ATS CMMAP 5
Duke FACE Results Amazon Rain Forest Oren et al (2001) Enhanced growth in elevated CO 2 Acclimitization after a few years Deforested Pasture 20 km away Disturbance Scott Denning CSU ATS CMMAP 6
Disturbance and Recovery Ecosystem Recovery & Succession 6-year-old 18-year-old 57-year-old Planted Height (m) 0.8 2000 1988 1949 3-8 30-35 Woodwell and Whittaker, 1968 Billions of Tons of Carbon per Year Emission Scenarios 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 10 Fossil Fuel Emissions Actual emissions: CDIAC 450ppm stabilisation 650ppm stabilisation A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2 Recent emissions 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Land Ocean Carbon-Climate Futures Friedlingstein et al (2006) Atmosphere Coupled simulations of climate and the carbon cycle Given nearly identical human emissions, different models project dramatically different futures! 300 ppm! Scott Denning CSU ATS CMMAP 7
Summary Emissions of CO 2 by global industry are part of a much bigger biogeochemical cycle of carbon About half of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are removed from the atmosphere by pertubations to natural biogeochemistry that are not completely understood Uncertainties in future human emissions and in the response of global biogeochemistry to changing climate are among the leading sources of uncertainty in predictions of 21st century climate Scott Denning CSU ATS CMMAP 8