Impact of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems & Forests in the North-Western Himalaya (Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) L. M. S. Palni G. B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment & Development Kosi-Katarmal, Almora, Uttarakhand
Reporting Area Features: A large part of the study area is covered by snow-clad peaks Glaciers in the higher Himalaya Dense forest cover in mid-himalaya Thin and dispersed human population as compared to the national figures The population growth rate (average ~23%) is higher than the national average (21.35%) during 1991-2001
General Profile... Parameter Jammu & Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Uttarakhand IHR India Geographical Area (km 2 ) 222,236 55,673 53,483 537,430 3,287,263 Human Population (Persons) Percent contribution to the total population of the country Decadal Growth rate (1991-2001) Annual average exponential growth rate (1961-2001) Sex ratio (females/ 1000 males) Demographic Parameters 10069917 6077248 8479562 39,628,311 1,026,640,181 0.98 0.59 0.83 4.08 100.00 30.46 18 20 25.43 21.35 2.6 2 2 2.47 2.12 900 970 964 940 933 Population density (km -1 ) 99 109 159 74 324 Source: Census, 2001
Area under different forest types and forest ecosystem services The area is dominated by mixed coniferous and other type of species J &K, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh respectively represent 12.5%, 11.3%, and 0.04% of total ecosystem service (ES) values estimated for entire IHR Parameter Jammu & Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Uttarakhand Area under major Forest Types (km 2 ) Coniferous 8269 8950 5565 Non-Coniferous 1885 6958 5717 Mixed coniferous and others 10076 15908 12706 Forest Ecosystem Services Value of Ecosystem Services as of 1994* (Billion Rs.) * 118.02 42.46 106.89 * Based on area under dense forests Source: Forestry Statistics India, 2003, *Singh, 2007
Changing Climatic Patterns Decreasing trend of annual rainfall (-29.7 to -2.1 cm/100 years) has been observed at Srinagar, Shimla, Musoorie, Mukteshwar and Joshimath whereas increasing trend at Dehradun, Pauri, Nainital, Almora & Pithoragarh (3.8 to 28.7 cm/100 years) has been observed in last century (Borgaonkar et al. 1998) On seasonal scale, increasing trend of winter rainfall (1964-2006) & summer rainfall (1938-2006), whereas decreasing trend of monsoon rainfall (1960 onwards) has been observed in western Himalaya (Sontakke et al. 2008) Decrease of snowfall and reduction in effective duration of winter has been observed in Pir-Panjal Himalayan ranges (Bhutiyani et al., 2009).
Changing Climatic Patterns Trends of temperature are not uniform over the NWH region and annual temperature has risen by 1.6 o C in the last century with winter warming (Bhutiyani et al. 2007) Increasing trend of temperature in post-monsoon & winter and decreasing trend in monsoon has been observed for Srinagar, Shimla, Musoorie, Dehradun & Mukteshwar, whereas Leh has experienced warming during last 100 years (Borgaonkar et al. 1998) Ring-width chronology prepared from Lahul-Spiti region has indicated warming in late 20 th century mean summer temperature in the Himalayan region (Yadav, 2009)
Retreating Pattern of Himalayan Glaciers Name of the Glacier State Period of observation Trend Avg. retreat rate (m/yr) Reference Gangotri Uttarakhand 1935-71 1971-2004 2004-2005 Pindari Uttarakhand 1845-1906 1906-1958 1958-1996 1966-2007 Retreating --do-- --do-- Retreating --do-- --do-- --do-- 26.50 17.15 12.10 26.23 20.0 7.62 6.39 Bali et. al, 2009 --do-- Kumar et. al, 2008 Bali et. al, 2009 Dokriani Uttarakhand 1962 95 Retreating 16.67 Dobhal, et al., 2004 Durung Jammu & Kashmir 2004-07 No Change - Ganjoo, 2010 Drung Kangriz Jammu & Kashmir 1913-2007 No Change - Ganjoo, 2010 Siachin Jammu & Kashmir 1862-1909 1909-1929 1929-1958 1958-1985 1985-2004 2004-2005 Advancing Retreating Retreating No Change Retreating No change 15.42 2.5 14-3 - Ganjoo, 2010
Retreating Pattern of Himalayan Glaciers Most of the glaciers in western Himalaya are receding (expect a few in J & K state, which do not show any change or are advancing) However, the rate of recession of many large glaciers (Siachin and Gangotri) has slowed down over past few decades In Ladakh, Zanskar and Great Himalayan ranges of Jammu & Kashmir, during last three decades most of the glaciers are receding with glacier volume change ranges between 3.6-97 % with majority of the glaciers showing 17-25% degradation The glaciers of the Nubra valley of Jammu & Kashmir (houses 114 small sized glaciers varying between less than 5 km to 5-10 km in length) do not show much change in their length and area during the period 1989-2001 1999 2004 The variable rates of recession in different valleys indicate the influence of micro-climatic variability 2007
Impact of CC on water resources As glaciers recede and snowlines move upwards, river flows are likely to change depending upon the glaciated area Significant reduction in monsoonal and annual discharge of the rivers Chenab and Beas (Bhutiyani et al. 2008a) and increase in river flow of Satluj and Indus have been observed in past few years (Rees and Collins 2006 & Singh and Jain 2002) The adopted changes in temperature (1 to 3 0 C) and precipitation (-10 to +10%) suggest that rise of 2 0 C in temperature may increase the runoff by 28% and changes in rainfall by ±10% may correspond to ±3.5% change in stream flow form Dokriani glacier (Dobhal et al. 2004) Alteration in water flow regimes may lead to social conflicts, affect hydropower generation, endanger biodiversity systems/forestry, agricultural-based livelihoods and overall well being of the people
Biological Responses to CC Phenology Endemics PAs Species community pattern Alien/invasive Microbes Retreat replacements (?)
Biological Responses to CC Timing of biological events (phenology) Morphology, physiology, and behaviour Species distribution ranges Increased frequency and intensity of outbreaks of pests and diseases; range shifts pole ward or to higher altitudes of pests/disease organisms Changes in stream flow, floods, droughts, water temperature, and water quality have affected biodiversity and the goods and services of ecosystems Climate Change and Biodiversity (IPCC Technical Paper V; 2002); assessment of 2,500 published studies
Biological Responses to CC The phenophases of 11 multipurpose tree species, substantial shift in critical phenophases and advancement in phenophases of these tree species in a span of 8 years is believed to be associated with climate change at the regional level in Himachal Pardesh (Thakur et al. 2008) The projected climate change scenario of +1 o C and +2 o C rise in temperature exhibit the overall area under present day Brown oak (Quercus semecarpifolia Sm.) distribution will get reduced by 40 and 76%, respectively in the west Himalayan region (Saran et al. 2010) Rhododendrons and other woody species have begun to invade alpine meadows in the valley of flowers of Uttarakhand (Singh et al., 2010)
Biological Responses to CC Upward shift of Blue pine (P. wallichiana) Young saplings on upper limit High rate of upward shift (19m/10yr South slope; 14 m/10yr North slope Exponential increase in growth since 1950s Dubey et al. 2003 10000 1000 100 Forest Regeneration - Nanda Devi NP Tree Sapling Seedling Density (Ind ha -1 ) 10 1 1000 100 Abies spectabilis A. spectabilis - stable B. utilis - stable 10 B. utilis - reduced back-up S. disperma emergent 1 AS BU PW SD Species Betula utilis Samant 2003 (AS= Abies spectabilis; BU= Betula utilis; PW= Pinus wallichiana; SD= Salix disperma
Biological Responses to CC Sensitive Species - Myrica esculenta Higher male tree density males with larger mean tree size - extremes of species range and resource-poor habitat conditions Low altitude (1300m) High altitude (2100m) Femaleness Favorableness! Seedling recruitment Likely expansion of forest Sapling bank and species boundaries! Probability of sex Young Myrica stock Male biased Decline Longterm Female biased Increase Rawal et al. 2003
Traditional crop responses Greater sensitivity of photosynthetic characteristics of Hordeum himalayens to high temperature - reduction in cultivation H. himalayens H. vulgare Net photosynthesis Stomatal conductance Joshi & Palni, 2005
Decline in apple production Despite of an increase of 46.9% area under apple cultivation from 8 th to 9 th decade a decrease of 26.4% per unit area production in the 9 th decade Climatic data recorded at Naggar in Kullu valley showed an increase in both, maximum (1.1 C) and minimum (0.35 C) temperatures and decline in the average annual rainfall and snowfall in the 9 th decade Decrease of nearly 9.01 cm in annual average rainfall in the second half of the 20 th century was found as compared to first half of the same century.
Socio- economic Linking challenges & opportunities Climate sensitivity Geological vulnerability Geographical isolation Economic marginality Poor technical skill Cultural diversity Indigenous Knowledge out migration over burdened Adaptation strategies?
Future Directions Development of scientific programmes for climate change monitoring Downscaling of regional climate models (RCMs) Researches on Himalayan precipitation processes Coupling of climate and hydrological models for the Himalayan streams Long-term studies on biodiversity elements of forest and alpine ecosystems Study of micro-organisms in relation to the effect of climate
Key issues for discussions... Partnership building implementation strategy Issues of information gaps optimal use of existing information Key issues. Access to better information - Backup of Decision Support Systems (model based data generation and retrieval systems), information & knowledge portals Methods/approaches- compatibility and reproducibility Ecosystem conservation technological advancement and holistic approach
Key issues for discussions... Capacity building multiple stakeholder groups Community involvement information generation and refinement of coping mechanisms Key issues. Improving outreach R&D extension Observational network responsibilities Trans boundary cooperation information sharing and technology transfer
Let us face the reality prepare our selves T h a n k s