Water Security in Eastern Europe Securing Water, Sustaining Growth GWP Central and Eastern Europe Richard Müller
The Global Water Partnership's vision is for a water secure world Our mission is to support the sustainable development and management of water resources at all levels 13 Regional Water Partnerships 85 Country Water Partnerships 3000+ Partners in 178 countries 2/35
Facts and figures Population of 152 million people, a quarter of all Europeans Total area of over 2.03 million km 2 12 countries in Baltic and Danube regions, 160 Partner organizations Founded in 1998 Baltic region: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland Danube region: Bulgaria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine 3/35
What is Water Security? The capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of and acceptable quality water for sustaining livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic development, for ensuring protection against water-borne pollution and waterrelated disasters, and for preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability. Source -UNWATER 4/35
What is Water Security? Source -UNWATER 5/35
What is Water Security? Access to safe and sufficient drinking water at an affordable cost in order to meet basic needs, which includes sanitation and the safeguarding of health and well-being Protection of livelihoods, human rights, and cultural and recreational values Preservation and protection in water allocation and management systems in order to maintain their ability to deliver and support ecosystems to sustain the functioning of essential ecosystem services Water supplies for socio-economic development and activities (such as energy, transport, industry, tourism) Collection and treatment of used water to protect human life and the environment from pollution Collaborative approaches to transboundary water resources management within and between countries to promote freshwater sustainability and cooperation The ability to cope with uncertainties and risks of water-related hazards, such as floods, droughts and pollution, among others; and, Good governance and accountability, and the due consideration of the interests of all stakeholders through: appropriate and effective legal regimes; transparent, participatory and accountable institutions; properly planned, operated and maintained infrastructure; and capacity development Source -UNWATER 6/35
Framing the Water Security Dynamic Sustainable growth, wealth & human wellbeing are at the core Focuses on the interplay between: water endowments (water availability & variability) water security investments growth/wealth/well-being Recognizes that a country s water endowment influences the nature & level of investment needed to achieve water security 7/35 Source: GWP-OECD TF Report, 2015
Starting Points (Water Endowments) Matter Countries with simple hydrologies & high investments in water security have high incomes Basins with population > 2 million Colors reflect GDP per capita Horizontal axis = hydrological complexity Vertical axis = investment in water security (storage, institutions, information) Hall et al., Science (2014) 8/35
How Important is Water Security to Growth? GWP/OECD Task Force research provides new empirical evidence that water insecurity causes diminished growth Global Economic Growth with/without Drought Water insecurity is a statistically significant global drag on growth The effect is not limited to highly agricultural economies but cuts across all economies Variability (changes in runoff, flood & drought) is a key causal factor driving the growth impacts Water insecurity acts as a drag or a headwind on growth, reducing the economic growth that would have occurred if hydrological variability could have been mitigated GWP/OECD Task Force: provisional results 9/35
Water-Related Hazards have a Statistically Significant, Causal Effect on Economic Growth 10/35
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Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), 2007 12/35
Where are the Risks and Opportunities Located? Water-related headline risks in Eastern Europe: Droughts, water scarcity and high variability Floods Inadequate water supply and sanitation Harmful impacts upon the environment Water-related opportunities: Food: increased agricultural production Energy/Industry: thermal power cooling Transport: waterway navigation Ecosystems: protection/restoration of services WATER-RELATED RISKS WATER-RELATED OPPORTUNITIES 13/35
Where are Drought/Scarcity Risks? Hazards: droughts, variability, unpredictability, over-abstraction Vulnerability and exposure: agricultural dependence, water-intensive industries Impacts: water shortages for people, agriculture (malnutrition), energy, industry and the environment; risk-aversion and under-investment Modelling progress: Water availability/reliability defined as frequency of shortage of water available for use (combines runoff & groundwater, adjusts for storage, balances water supply/demand) 14/35
Droughts 1950-2012 Frequency Severity Source: Spinoni, Naumann, Vogt, et al., 2015 15/35
Droughts 1950-2012 Projected changes in mean annual and summer precipitation (%) in the period 2071-2100 compared to the baseline period 1971-2000 Annual Summer Source: EURO-CORDEX (Jacob, et al., 2014) 16/35
Water scarcity Approximately 30 million inhabitants in winter and 70 million in summer are affected by water stress 17/35 Source: EEA indicator assessment 'Use of freshwater resources', 2016
Key observed climate change impacts EEA SOER report, 2015 18/35
Droughts and Water Scarcity 19/35 US$94 billion per year, on average, of economic loss to food producers and consumers 3 billion in the EU per year, on average
Where are Flood Risks? Hazard: Extreme rainfall & snowmelt, flow, storm surges Vulnerability and exposure: Floodplain population & GDP Impacts: Fatalities and economic losses ~ US$ 120bn/yr (prelim) GWP/OECD Task Force: provisional results 20/35
Floods in South East Europe 2014 Severe flooding in the Balkans (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite, 19 May 2014) Source: WHO Europe, 2014 21/35
Floods US$120 billion of flood damage to property per year, on average 5 billion in the EU, 160,000 people per year* *Source: EEA 22/35
Where are Water Supply & Sanitation Risks? Hazards: inadequate access to water supply & sanitation Impacts: mortality, morbidity, socioeconomic US$ 260bn/yr (WHO) Population with Access to Sanitation WASH-Related Deaths (per sq mile) WHO data 23/35
Inadequate Water Supply and Sanitation US$260 billion per year of economic loss 22.5 million without piped water, 28 million without flush toilettes in 16 Danube countries* * Source: Danube Water Program, 2017 24/35
Where are Environmental Risks? Hazards: Harmful water quality, overabstraction, habitat disturbance Vulnerability and exposure: Species/ecosystem sensitivity Impacts: Endangered species, degraded habitats, clean up costs Modelling in process: Environmental flow requirement shortfalls Habitats associated with 65% of continental discharge classified as moderately to highly threatened 25/35
Ecosystem Degradation and Pollution Risks have not be monetized Gap between current water status and good status 26/35
Where is the Nexus? Water demands from irrigation in 2050 Water consumed in thermal power production (bcm) GWP/OECD Task Force: provisional results Against a backdrop of increasing scarcity relative to demand the nexus of water/food/energy demands can affect water security 27/35
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Sustainability Evolution of water managment in Europe 1 st phase 1970-2000 Supply driven Increase in supply Storage reservoirs Water transfers Flood defence 2 nd phase 2000-2015 Water Framework Directive Technology Water efficiency Water pricing Desalinisation 3 rd phase 2015-2050 Systemic demand management and water efficiency Climate adaptation Green infrastructure Green/blue cities Nature based solutions Reuse and recycle Water/food/energy links Source: EEA Time 29/35
Investments in Water Security: the 3 Is 30/35
Conclusion Water security is a statistically significant causal factor in economic growth Hydrological variability (runoff) is the key hydro-climatic factor with regard to economic growth & its effects reach across all economies (not just poor agricultural economies) The scale of economic risks/opportunities (hundreds of billions $/yr) should put it high on the agenda: The largest economic impacts are WASH risks, primarily in South Asia & Africa parts of Latin America Flood risks: People at risk heavily weighted in Asia/Assets at risk in OECD & Asia Scarcity risks (and opportunities): BRICs, parts of Africa & US Environmental Costs: Mitigation & restoration costs in OECD, rapidly increasing in China, India Sequencing matters: returns on investment are path dependent 31/35
The post-2015 development agenda An integrated strategy for the whole water sector Effective reorganization of irrigation & drainage Introduction of the polluter pays principle Importance of water infrastructure and its modernisation Introduction of modern information systems Mapping of ecosystem services in river basins Source: Bulgaria stakeholder perspectives on a water goal and its implementation, GWP, 2014 32/35
Valuing Water UN Secretary-General and the World Bank Group President convened a High Level Panel on Water (HLPW) in January 2016 Shared principles to motivate and encourage governments, business, and civil society to consider water s multiple values and to guide the transparent incorporation of these values into decision-making Regional Consultations in South Africa, Tajikistan, Mexico, Bangladesh, Peru and Senegal in 2017 Consultations https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/hlpwater Joint the conversations #ValuingWater, #HLPWater, #HLPW 33/35
Ways Forward Support to Governments to assert their leadership role in guiding water resources development and management including building stronger partnerships with the private sector and NGOs; Support to countries in designing their investment in portfolios of sequenced projects that combine institutions (agencies, rules, and incentives), information systems (hydrometeorological, economic, and social), and infrastructure (natural and constructed) in the management of water resources and water-related risks; Support countries, mainly those most afflicted by water insecurity and are not credit-worthy enough to borrow their way out of water crisis, to package tailored financing mechanisms; Support countries to overcome the water information and knowledge gaps through the establishment of regional/national knowledge platforms designed to help them meet their water agenda by facilitating collaboration, awareness, knowledge and capacity building. 34/35
Thank you for your attention Благодаря за вниманието Email: richard.muller@gwpcee.org 35/35