The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Joost Van Roost, ExxonMobil Benelux Deloitte Dutch Oil & Gas Conference Rotterdam, June 25, 213 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Outlook Development 1 countries 15 demand sectors 2 fuel types technology & policy ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
Global Progress Drives Demand Population Billion 21 18 Average Growth / Yr. 21 24.8% GDP Trillion 25$ 12 1 Average Growth / Yr. 21 24 2.8% Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs 14 12 Average Growth / Yr. 21 24 1.% 15 12 8 1 8 Energy Saved ~5 6 9 6 6 4 4 3 Non OECD 2 2 OECD 199 215 24 199 215 24 199 215 24 ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation Leads Growth Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 3 24 25 225 Electricity Demand 2 21 15 1 5 Electricity Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE 75 6 Rail Marine Demand by Region MBDOE 3 25 4 45 Aviation 2 25 3 Heavy Duty 15 1 1 15 Light Duty 5 2 22 24 AP NA Europe LA ME ROW ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles 5 24 225 21 4 3 2 PHV/EV Advanced* Full Hybrid CNG CNG LPG LPG Conv. Diesel Diesel Conv Conv. Mogas Gasoline Conv 1 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
Europe Transportation Demand Transportation MBDOE 1 8 6 4 Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Million Cars 3 25 2 15 1 Conv. Diesel CNG/LPG PHV/EV Hybrid 2 Light Duty 5 Conv. Gasoline 2 21 22 23 24 2 21 22 23 24 ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
Electricity generation
Electricity Demand by Region Non OECD OECD Thousand TWh Thousand TWh 25 25 2 Russia/Caspian Southeast Asia Other Non OECD 2 15 15 Middle East 1 Africa India 1 Other OECD Europe OECD 5 China 5 North America 2 22 24 2 22 24 ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region Electricity Generation Quadrillion BTUs 3 Growth in Fuels from 21 to 24 Quadrillion BTUs 12 25 Renewables 9 Renewables 2 Nuclear Non OECD 6 Nuclear 15 Coal 3 Gas 1 Coal 5 OECD Gas Oil Oil 2 22 24-3 Non OECD OECD ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
Europe Electricity Demand Electricity Demand Thousand Terawatt Hour 5 Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption Quadrillion BTUs 35 4 Transportation 3 Other Renewables Wind & Solar Commercial 25 Biomass 3 2 Nuclear 2 Residential 15 Other Industry 1 Coal 1 Heavy Industry 5 Gas 2 21 22 23 24 Oil 2 21 22 23 24 ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
Economic Choices for Europe Electricity Baseload, Startup 23 212 Eurocents/kWh 2 $6/ton of CO 2 16 12 Reliability Cost 8 4 $/ton Coal Gas Nuclear Onshore Wind* Solar PV Utility* *Wind and solar exclude costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
Renewables Gain Share United States Percent of TWh Europe Percent of TWh Asia Pacific Percent of TWh 45 4 Solar Geothermal 45 4 45 4 35 Biomass/Other Wind 35 35 3 Hydro 3 3 25 25 25 2 2 2 15 15 15 1 1 1 5 5 5 '1 '2 '3 '4 '1 '2 '3 '4 '1 '2 '3 '4 *Biomass includes Municipal Solid Waste ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs 225 2.8% 24 1.7% Average Growth / Yr. 21-24 175 15 21 -.1% 1.% 125 1 75 5 2.4%.4% 25 5.8% 1.8% Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
CO 2 Emissions Plateau By Region Billion Tons 4 Emissions Per Capita Tons per Person 2 3 Rest of Non OECD 15 2 India 1 1 China 5 1 25 4 OECD 2 22 24 China India U.S. Europe ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
Europe Energy Demand and Supply By Sector Quadrillion BTUs By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 1 1 8 Res/Comm 8 Other Renewables Biomass 6 Industrial 6 Nuclear Coal 4 Electricity Generation 4 Gas 2 Transportation 2 Oil 2 21 22 23 24 2 21 22 23 24 ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
Europe Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions By Sector Billion Tons By Fuel Billion Tons 5 5 4 4 3 Res/Comm Industrial 3 Coal 2 Electricity Generation 2 Gas 1 1 Transportation Liquids 2 21 22 23 24 2 21 22 23 24 ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
Supply
Liquids Supply Supply by Type MBDOE 12 Biofuels Other Liquids Resource* TBO 6 1 NGLs 5 8 Oil Sands Tight Oil Deepwater 4 Remaining Resource 6 3 4 2 Conventional Crude & Condensate 2 1 Cumulative Production 2 21 22 23 24 24 ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy * Source: IEA
Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts North America Gas Supply BCFD 12 Global Gas Supply BCFD 6 1 LNG 5 Rest of World Unconventional 8 4 North America Unconventional 6 Local Unconventional 3 4 2 Rest of World Conventional 2 Local Conventional 21 225 24 1 North America Conventional 21 225 24 ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
Global Gas Resource Over 2 years coverage at current demand 6.2 4.3 1.6 4.9 North America Europe OECD Russia/ Caspian* 4.5 1 TCF 3 Middle East 25 2 Unconventional 2.5 2.6 Asia Pacific 15 1 5 Conventional Latin America Africa World Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD
Gas Demand Grows and Supply Diversifies North America Europe Asia Pacific BCFD BCFD BCFD 175 175 175 15 15 15 125 125 125 1 LNG 1 1 75 Unconventional 75 75 5 25 Local Production Conventional 2 22 24 5 Pipeline 25 2 22 24 5 25 2 22 24 ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
Hydraulic Fracturing
Shale Gas: Demonstrate Responsibility Aquifers Water Demonstrate Responsibility Local Area Ground
Shale Gas Production Process Uses two established technologies: horizontal drilling (196s+) and hydraulic fracturing (195s+) Both widely used in Europe for decades Shale reservoirs are generally 2,m to 4,m below surface Water, sand and additives are pumped at pressure into the shale, opening up hairline fractures that allow gas to flow Thousands of meters of impermeable rock separate fractures from drinking water aquifers Source: Total Shale Fractures cannot propagate to the surface
Aquifer Protection Multiple layers of steel casing and cement Aquifers protected by several layers of steel and impermeable cement No different from a conventional oil or gas well, or geothermal well Steel casings 5cm cement Source: Total Shale Source: OGP
Opportunities: Economic Benefits Henry Hub = virtual trading location USA (natural gas pipeline system in Erath, Louisiana ) NBP = National Balancing Point virtual trading location UK JAPAN JLNG = Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price EUROPE US Sources: Platts, ICIS ESGM Heren Report and Waterbourne
Liquefied Natural Gas Adriatic LNG Terminal
LNG Supply Source: IHS CERA Disclaimer: No portion of this slide may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written CERA consent
BCM Europe LNG Supply Potential Pacific Supply ME Supply Net LNG Available to Europe Atlantic Supply 5 BCM 12 BCM 17 BCM Significant volumes of LNG available to Europe 215 23 5 BCM 215 (~1% Demand) to 17 BCM in 23 (~ 25% Demand) Source: WoodMackenize Research (1H 212 Gas & Power Tool)