Hgh Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators Rainfall report: 1.1 mm was received in Moyale Town which is normal at this period of the year. Vegetation condition; pasture and browse condition is good across the county exhibited by monthly VCI. January was 37.52 which is normal and exhibits normal conditions for Moyale. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators; livestock body condition is good in all the species. hhhhhhh Crop condition is poor with total failure, experienced as a result of poor and erratic rainfall and also due to use of uncertified seeds. There was minimal in and out livestock migration within the Sub County and no livestock deaths as a result of drought. Milk production is normal Access indicators; Terms of Trade is favourable and is above the long term mean of 86.Return distance to water sources has increased due to cessation of short rains.. Milk consumption has decreased due to decreased production which is normal at this time of the year. Utilization Indicators; malnutrition levels increased with 17.9% children under 5 years at risk of malnutrition. Coping strategies index has increased indicating poor household food availability. g National Drought Management Authority MOYALE SUB COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR JANUARY 2016 JANUARY EW PHASE: ALERT Early Warning (EW) Phase Classification Livelihood Zone Phase Trend Agro-pastoral Normal Stable Pastoral All species Normal Worsening Business/Trade Normal Stable Sub County Normal Worsening Biophysical Indicators Value Normal Range/Value Rainfall (% of Normal) 1.1 80-120 VCI-3Month 37.52 >35 Production indicators Value Normal Livestock Body Moderate Normal Condition Milk Production 72 >72 Litres Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock deaths (from drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal Terms of Trade (ToT) 94 >86 Milk Consumption 54 >54 litres Return distance to 3.2 <3.8 Km water sources Utilization indicators Value Normal Nutrition Status, MUAC (% at risk of malnutrition) Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 17.9 <22.2 1.7 <2.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation Planting/Weeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Planting/weeding Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Seasonal Calendar 1
RAINFALL (mm) 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0-20.0 Jan Feb Mar ch April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long-Term Mean 2011-2015 0.1 8.5 42.8 109.0 88.9 5.8 4.4 13.9 11.2 111.3 141.8 20.0 2016 1.1 2015 0 0 13.6 106.1 160.5 15.0 5.5 9.0 1.3 93.4 109.5 35.5 Source: Moyale Meteorological Station From the figure shown above, only 1.1mm and two days traced amounts of light showers were received majorly in the morning in Moyale town, as no rainfall received across the county. The situation is normal at this time of the year. 2
2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION 2.1 1 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) The graph below shows VCI trend and compares to 2016 and long term average. It can be observed that this month s VCI has improved compared to last month and within the normal ranges. Source: Boku University From the figure shown above, the vegetation condition index for January is 37.52 which is above average and normal compared to last year at this time. Vegetation condition index increased from 36.37 in December to 37.52 in January thus normal conditions across agro-pastoral livelihoods. 2.1.2 Pasture Quality and quantity of pasture was generally fair to good in January but improved when compared to the preceding year at this period. However Agro-pastoral areas of Godona, Uran, Sololo- Ramata and Obbu had good pasture. There was no unusual hindrance in accessing pasture. Therefore, the pasture is expected to last 2-4 months. The situation is normal at this time of the year and season. 2.1.3 Browse Quality and quantity of browse was fair to good and improved when compared to the preceding month. In Agro-pastoral livelihood zone, browse is expected to last for the next 4months whereas in pastoral livelihood zone browse is expected to last for the next 2months. The situation is normal at this time of the year and season. 3
2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources The Main Sources for Moyale January, 2016 12% 13% 4% 71% BOREHOLES PANS SHALLOW WELLS NATURAL PONDS Pastoral livelihood zones relied mostly on natural ponds, shallow wells, boreholes, and springs while in the Agro-pastoral zones they mostly relied on roof catchment, traditional river wells, pans and dams. From the figure shown above, 71 percent of the community interviewed stated that the main source of water for both household and livestock consumption across the livelihood zones is water pan. However, 13percent, 12percent and 4percent of the community interviewed stated that other sources of water are natural ponds, boreholes and shallow wells respectively. At this particular period of the year, the main source of water is usually a water pan. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization Household water distance in the month under review was 3.2kms across the livelihood zones. In comparison to the month of December where household water distance was 2.2kms, household water distance increased. Increased household water distance was attributed to drying up of surface water sources as dry spell start. Household water distance of 3.2kms is below normal when compared to the long term average of 3.8kms at this particular period of the year. Household water distance was highest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at 4kms while lowest in Pastoral livelihood zone at 2.3km.Household waiting time at the water point increased from 2.3hrs in January to 1.55hrs in December.Average household water consumption is 10Litres per person per day which is normal at this particular time of the year. Most households reported consuming in excess of 15-20 litres per person per day. Less than 50 % of the households reported the use of water treatment methods. 4
Months Months Household access to water Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug July June May April March Feb Jan 2.2.3 Livestock access 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Access Distance 2016 3.2 LTA Distance 2011-2015 3.8 3.7 3.6 2.2 2.1 2.3 3.6 2.9 2.8 2.6 1.8 2.2 Average Grazing Distance Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug July June May April March Feb Jan 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Grazing Distance 2016 8.1 LTA Distance 2011-2015 10.4 12.1 11.9 6.8 6.6 8.3 13.6 10.7 11.2 8.4 5.5 7.6 As a result the frequency for watering livestock has improved with livestock accessing water anytime mostly from water pans and natural ponds. Livestock trekking distance from grazing areas to water points in the month under review was 8.1kms. Trekking distance increased from 7.7kms in the preceding month to 8.1kms in January across livelihood zones. Increased trekking distance from the grazing areas to water points was attributed to depletion of pasture and drying up of water reservoirs. 5
Watering frequency of cattle is 2 days which is normal, shoats 2-3days compared to normal 3days and camel 7-10days compared to normal 10days. The watering frequency for all livestock species range between 2-10 days in both agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones which is above normal at this period of the year. The trekking distance of 8.1kms is below normal when compared to the long-term trekking distance of 10.4kms. The trekking distance and frequencies of watering livestock are anticipated to increase as the dry spell start. 6
Amount in KSh. 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Forage covers and environmental condition is good thus the body condition of livestock for all species is good in both Agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zone across the Sub County. Livestock body condition is slightly stable compared to last month. Most of the livestock s body condition is good and minimal improvement is expected to be noted in February. Pasture and browse is fair-good thus the body condition is expected to remain good. The current body conditions were is normal at this particular time of the year. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There was livestock death reported especially among goats and sheep in Uran due to disease caused by Diarrhoea. Over 160 camel death reported in Golbo ward especially in Dabel, Laak, Amballo, Dirbsey and neighboring Korondile (Wajir county) and the cause of the disease is yet to be established. 3.1.3 Milk Production Milk production has decreased across the Sub County. An average of 72 liters was produced in the month under review which is a decrease compared to last month. The graph below compares 2016 milk production to that of long term average. 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Average (2014-15) 45 35 31 45 63 59 50 46 44 72 94 99 Max 56 37 40 50 85 75 63 59 57 76 99 109 Min 35 33 21 41 41 43 37 32 31 68 89 90 2016 72 Milk Production for Moyale, 2016 n=240hh Milk is available mainly from Camel compared to both Camel and Cattle in a normal season thus camel price is 60per litre compared to 70per litre for Cattle. In pastoral livelihood zone, milk production is 1litre/household/day compared to 1.5litres per household per day at this particular time of the year. In agro-pastoral areas, milk production is 1.5 litres/household/day compared to 2litres per household per day at this particular time of the year. Milk production deccreased from 109bottles of 750ml to 72bottles of 750ml. Milk production was highest in agro-pastoral livelihood zone with 124 bottles compared to 20 bottles of 750ml in pastoral livelihood zone. 7
Price (Kshs) 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices The graph below compares 2016 monthly price with 2015 as well as the long term price averages. 35000 30000 Cattle Price 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Average (2013-2015) 20181 19158 19150 21833 26250 25567 27541 26872 23408 24685 25861 21976 2016 22000 0 2015 19944 18875 17250 19000 25000 26833 28667 26115 24775 25056 25167 23500 The graph shown above exhibits that cattle prices are on an decreasing trend which is above the short term average. Cattle prices decreased from Ksh 23,500 in the preceding month to Ksh 22,000 in the month of January. Cattle prices are 9percent above normal when compared to a normal year. Decrease in cattle prices across the livelihood zones were mainly attributed to volume of cattle sales was very low in January. 4.1.2 Goat Prices The graph shown below exhibits that the price of goat was Ksh 3,119 in the month under review. In comparison to the month of December where on average the price of goats was Ksh 3,633. Goat prices generally declined due to fair-good body condition and reduced crossborder trade with neighbouring Ethiopia. The current goat prices are 13percent below the Short term average. 8
Price (Ksh./kg) Price (Ksh.) Goat Price 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 4.2 CROP PRICES 500 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Average (2013-2015) 3568 3231 3227 3851 3561 3615 3611 3646 3646 3482 3651 3915 2016 3119 0 2015 3180 3105 2585 3383 3822 3788 3783 3513 3500 3555 3702 3633 4.2.1 Maize The graph below compares the average monthly prices of maize in 2016 and long term price averages. 45 40 Maize Price 35 30 25 20 15 10 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average (2013-2015) 37 40 37 37 37 37 33 38 37 38 36 39 2016 35 5 0 2015 40 41 39 38 36 37 35 39 37 36 37 38 Maize prices were stable in major town across the Sub County with insignificant price change in January as it retailed at Kshs35 in the month under review. 9
Price (Ksh.kg) Maize price is within the normal range range of Kshs.30-40.Stable maize prices were attributed to improved cross-border trade with neighbouring Ethiopia. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) 70 60 Posho Price 50 40 30 20 10 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average(2013-2015) 45 52 48 43 49 48 46 49 45 49 49 51 2016 48 0 2015 50 58 52 49 48 49 50 50 46 49 48 54 From the graph shown above, Posho prices decreased from Ksh54 in the preceding month to Ksh48 in January due to decreased in maize price and attributed to normal market variations. Posho prices were 7percent above the Short term average. 4.2.3 Beans From the graph shown below, Beans prices were stable in January and retailed at Ksh77 in the month under review while the same retailed at an average of Ksh79 in major markets in December depicting insignificant price change. Beans prices were 5percent above the Short term average. Stable beans prices were attributed to improved cross-border trade with neighbouring Ethiopia. 10
Kilograms of Maize exchanged for a goat Price (Ksh./kg) Beans Price 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Average(2013-2015) 73 73 70 74 68 70 75 70 72 69 71 76 2016 77 0 2015 78 73 72 72 65 76 79 74 76 74 77 79 4.3 Livestock Price Ratio/Terms of Trade The graph below shows 2016 TOT compared to corresponding long term averages. Terms of Trade 120 100 80 60 40 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average (2014-2015) 86 77 83 99 99 98 112 89 92 97 100 94 2016 94 0 2015 80 76 66 89 106 102 108 90 95 99 100 96 From the graph shown above, a goat is currenting exchanging for 94kg of maize compared to 96kg in the preceding month.declined terms of trade were attributed to trade and decreased goat prices and maize price. The terms of trade for the month under review was 9percent above the short term average. 11
Amount in KSh. 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 MILK CONSUMPTION 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept oct Nov Dec Average (2014-15) 27 22 23 33 36 55 51 38 38 57 57 67 Max 31 25 29 42 55 59 59 40 38 63 59 85 Min 23 19 17 25 16 51 44 36 37 50 55 50 2016 54 Milk Consumption for Moyale, 2016 Milk Consumption has decreased which as a result of decreased milk production. Most households are reporting consumption of between 2-3litre in a day. This is normal at this time of the year due to good livestock body condition. Milk production is mainly from camels, cattle and goats in pastoral livelihood while Agropastoral mainly relied on cow milk. Due to the availability, cost per litre has significantly reduced to between Ksh60-70 and lies between normal ranges. 5.2 FOOD CONSUMPTION SCORE Food consumption within the households has slightly reduced in January when compared to December. This is mainly because of milk availability in most Households. Approximately 50percent and 40percent of the households had a poor and borderline food consumption score respectively. There are variations in the number of meals consumed per day. In Agro pastoral areas, consumption of food is two meals per person, per day compared to the normal three meals while in the pastoral areas, consumption of food is 1-2 meals per person per day compared to the normal two meals. The meals consumed were basically maize, beans and rice. 5.3 HEALTH AND NUTRITION STATUS A total of 1,173 children (12-59 months) were sampled where 599 were boys and 574 were girls and assessed for malnutrition using MUAC tape. From the sampled children, 17.9% were at risk of malnutrition (MUAC <135 mm). Case of cholera outbreak reported in Moyale town but it s controlled. 12
'at risk' (MUAC < 135 mm) 5.3.1 Nutrition Status Percent of children U-5yrs at risk of malnutrition (MUAC<135 mm) 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average(2011-2015) 22.2 22.4 22.1 18.5 16.7 17.0 17.4 15.2 20.4 23.2 16.5 20.8 2016 17.9 2015 17.3 17.7 18.8 14.6 13.2 14.4 14.9 15.6 16.2 15.9 12.9 14.95 n=1,173 Children From the graph shown above, proportion of children rated being at risk of malnutrition increased from 14.95percent in the month of December to 17.9percent in January. Proportion of children rated being at risk of malnutrition is 19percent below the long term average. An increase may be attributed to low milk availability and household food availability. Malnutrition levels are higher in agro pastoral areas than all pastoral livelihood zone. 5.3.2 Health First case of cholera was reported on 7th December 2015 where in Wajir and Moyale- Ethiopia were reported on September and Mid-November respectively. The first case was reported from Biashara Street due to trade and porous border. 88 people were suspected, 74 tested and 66 confirmed positive for cholera and of those suspected 46 Male, 42 Female.19 under age of 5 and 69 adults. No death pertaining to cholera but one community death just on the street from vibrio-cholera which not was admitted at hospital. A case has been reported recently at Ethiopia and in January one was admitted at cholera center in Moyale Town, thus it s with us and one case is an outbreak. 13
Coping Strategy Index 5.4 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategies 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average (2013-2015) 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.6 2016 1.7 2015 2 1.9 2.15 1.6 1.25 1.65 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.35 The Coping Strategies Index in January was 1.7 while in December it was 1.4 which is a decrease of 0.3 points and within the normal ranges. The main coping strategies currently employed include; reduction in the number and sizes of meals, borrowing from friends and relatives consumption of less preferred and cheaper foods, skipping of meals purchasing food on credit The coping strategies applied are the same compared to last month. 14
6. CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES (ACTION) 6.1 NON-FOOD INTERVENTIONS Unconditional HSNP cash transfer by NDMA through Equity bank to all registered households in the County with active bank accounts. List of activities conducted by World Vision Kenya in January 2016. Joint monitoring of FFA project by technical departments that included Agriculture, water, Livestock and NDMA. This was aimed at providing technical input for quality and sustainable community assets. Ten centers were visited. Community feedback forum was also done in Dabel to gather views of community visa vie interventions that are conducted by WV in the area. WVK also conducted Post distribution monitoring to assess impact of food intervention in the sub county. 12 FDPs were sampled for exercise and the report will be compiled in February. Dorcas Aid International has been implementing this interventions as from January:- Training of community managed disaster risk reduction committees to undertake range land rehabilitation and management of pasture lands as fall back during times of disaster across the areas of Dabel, Odda, Bori and Yaballo. Enhancing water supply by supporting pipeline extension to women groups engaging on horticulture production in Bori and Odda and support in training and horticulture seeds. Mobilization for the formation of camel milk cooperative in collaboration with the ministry of trade and enterprise development. 6.2 FOOD AID WVK food distribution to 28 centers under FFA and 29 health facilities under SuFP. A total of 181.76MTs were distributed to 24400 beneficiaries in FFA while 12.161MT to 1874 clients in SuFP that included PLW and children under five years of age. 7. EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 LIVESTOCK DEATH Case of livestock death reported is huge at Golbo ward especially at Dabel where over 160 camels were confirmed dead and still counting while it s extending to goats. The neighbouring Wajir County is also affected. Hence, all camels have migrated to Godoma village due to the menace especially in Dabel, Laak, Amballo, Diribsey and Korondile. The cause of the disease is yet to be established as veterinary officer took the samples. 7.2 MIGRATION In migration of sheep, goats, cattle and camels from Wajir County and porous border of Ethiopia which will increase as the drought spell accelerate. 15
7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS The current food security situation has improved compared to last month. Livestock body condition and prices is stable, pasture and browse is good, ease access to water, milk production and consumption is normal at this period of the year and coping strategies have eased. All the indicators are showing stable trend. Most farmers planted crops within the season but due to some pest infections the crops had started withering before reaching maturity, thus no expectation of any harvest. Food prices have remained constant and livestock prices are also expected to be stable although low volume of sales. Due to cessation of short rains, but available pasture and browse is expected to last between 2-4 months. Water availability is expected to start deteriorating in February when temporary water sources start drying up. 16
8. RECOMMENDATIONS Food relief assistance. Early acquisition/procurement of the right type and varieties of crop seeds. Early land preparations. This will involve-; Farmers sensitising and mobilization Timely servicing and repair of tractors Additional of at least one more tractor Timely supply of adequate fuel for the tractors Rapid assessment before short rain assessment. 17