Famine Early Warning Systems Network Early warning and Acute food insecurity analysis: introduction to CH process Nigeria CH Foundational Training
Overview What is early warning? Some concepts Guiding principles for acute food insecurity analysis FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 1
FOOD SECURITY EARLY WARNING AND DECISION SUPPORT FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 2
What is early warning and why we need it? The risk: food insecurity (common working base) Tools for predicting and assessing food insecurity by providing shortterm information for the development of emergency plans to save lives through observations collected by various services. Data collection Analysis Disseminate Response A set of tools and methods for anticipating the deterioration of food security - facilitating decision-making FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 3
Purpose To prevent famine and mitigate food insecurity by providing decision makers with information that is accurate, credible, timely, and actionable. National structured body to provide timely early warning and vulnerability analysis. FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 4
What is Food Security? Food security, at the individual, household, national, regional and global levels [is achieved] when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. FAO, 1996 Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. Household food security is the application of this concept to the family level, with individuals within households as the focus of concern. (2001 2015) Food insecurity exists when people do not have adequate physical, social or economic access to food as defined above. FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 5
Two food insecurity conditions: acute and chronic Acute food insecurity is any food insecurity found at a specific point in time of a severity that threatens lives or livelihoods, or both, regardless of the causes, context or duration. Chronic food insecurity is food insecurity that persists over time mainly due to structural causes. This persistence is determined based on analysis of conditions under nonexceptional circumstances (NECs). FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 6
Decision-support implications Acute food insecurity and chronic food insecurity are not mutually exclusive. An area or household can experience acute or chronic food insecurity, or both simultaneously. Recurrent acute food insecurity is often related to chronic food insecurity in a bidirectional relationship of cause-and-effect. To address acute food insecurity it is appropriate to have shortterm strategic objectives. Chronic food insecurity, however, requires medium- and long-term strategic objectives to address associated underlying factors. FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 7
CILSS and partners monitoring initiatives CH for acute food insecurity and emergency responses following a shock CILSS AND PARTNERS ongoing initiative to address chronic food insecurity that persists due to structural underlying causes under non-exceptional circumstances (NECs). FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 8
TERMINOLOGIES AND FRAMEWORK FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 9
The Disaster Risk Reduction framework (DRR) RISK = ƒ (Hazard, Vulnerability, Coping Capacity) Food Security Early warning is a form of disaster risk analysis. Analysts use the terminology consistent with the internationally recognized DRR framework to conduct their analysis. Disaster risk (or the risk of food insecurity) is normally understood as a function of a hazard and the vulnerability of the population to the hazards (and, similarly, its adaptive capacity). FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 10
CH conceptually aligned with the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) framework RISK = ƒ (Hazard, Vulnerability, Coping Capacity) Here, we are examining the risk of acute food insecurity for a particular area and population of concern At this level, we consider the magnitude of likely hazards (for example, drought, aboveaverage staple food prices, an influx of displaced populations) We use livelihood information to evaluate household vulnerability to the hazards (how will they impact food/income sources?) We look at how households respond to or cope with the hazards FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 11
Hazard, vulnerability Hazard: the probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging phenomenon - the threat of a stress or perturbation to a system and its value; Vulnerability: the degree to which a person, system or unit is likely to experience harm due to exposure to perturbations or stresses. FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 12
What are shocks? An atypical event or series of events (either rapid or slow-onset) that will have a significant impact on household food or income sources or expenditures, either directly or indirectly. Shocks can also be thought of as anomalies. Shocks or anomalies expected to occur in the future (during the analysis period); Shocks can be positive (eg, a significantly better harvests than normal) or negative (eg poor harvests or higher food prices). FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 13
Additional useful concepts What are food security conditions? External circumstances and influences related to food security, including factors such as seasonal progress, food prices, and labor demand. What are food security impacts? Direct and indirect effects of conditions on the food and income sources and expenditures of households. For example, poor crop conditions will impact demand for harvest labor, a key source of income for poor households. What are food security outcomes? Outcomes refer to the final situation faced by households once all conditions, impacts, coping capacity, and response have been analyzed. Outcomes (e.g. nutritional status) describe if households are able to access and utilize the food needed for a healthy life. Why do we care? 1. Unlike the other terms, outcomes are comparable. 2. Using terms correctly helps us arrive at and pinpoint food security outcomes what we are ultimately seeking to determine. FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 14
Examples of food security conditions Animal body conditions Market functioning Terms of trade Milk availability Livestock prices Trade context Labor demand Recent crop production levels Livestock or crop disease Crop conditions Remittance flows Wage levels Political/ policy context FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 15
Quick recall of the IPC/CH Analytical Framework Food security conditions The weight given to these 3 outcomes corresponds to the degree to which they are related to food security Impacts Outcomes FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 16
HOUSEHOLDS RELATED OUTCOMES FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 17
Food consumption outcomes Primarily looking at diet quantity Could rely on direct evidence (e.g. outcome indicator), or inferred evidence (e.g. outcome of livelihoods-based analysis) Answers these questions: Are households in the area of concern currently meeting basic food needs? Why or why not? How are they meeting basic food needs (if so)? Through seasonally typical means, such as crop production or purchases? Or through less common means, such as food aid or atypical selling of productive assets? Is emergency assistance being delivered in the area of concern? To what degree is it reducing food and income deficits? Are households able to afford the expenditures needed to maintain current livelihoods? (This is a food consumption indicator!) FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 18
Livelihood change outcomes Primarily looking at ability to maintain current livelihoods and different strategies households use to respond to current or expected food consumption deficits may include expansion of current livelihoods strategies (e.g. increasing livestock sales) or new strategies (e.g. sale of agricultural tools). Answers these questions: How are people meeting their minimum food and non-food needs? Through seasonally typical means? Or through less common means, such as atypical selling of productive assets? FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 19
Reminder - livelihoods outcomes must be related to food security Outcomes of livelihoods change should NOT include: Consumption-based strategies (e.g. reducing number of meals or portion size, shifting to less preferred foods these fall under Food Consumption) Loss of livelihoods or loss of assets due to a shock (e.g. loss of livestock due to conflict) Shift in livelihoods for reasons other than current or expected food consumption gaps (ie climate change). FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 20
Food consumption and livelihood change can be directly measured Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) Household Economy Approach (HEA) Coping Strategies Index (CSI) Food Consumption Score (FCS) Household Hunger Scale (HHS) FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 21
AREA RELATED OUTCOMES FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 22
As with household level outcomes, acute malnutrition and mortality rate can be directly measured. Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) Under Five Death Rate (U5DR) Body Mass Index (BMI) Crude Death Rate (CDR) FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 23
REMEMBER: For both nutrition and mortality area outcomes, household food consumption deficits must be an explanatory factor in order for that evidence to be used in support of a classification. We are classifying food insecurity as our outcome NOT nutritional status or mortality We use a convergence of evidence approach to do this; Just because levels of acute malnutrition (and mortality) are high does not necessarily mean that the phase of food insecurity must be very high. - Malnutrition levels can be high even if HH food consumption deficits are not there; We must be aware of background levels of acute malnutrition and underlying causes of malnutrition; For example, elevated malnutrition due to disease outbreak or lack of health access if it is determined to not be related to food consumption deficits should not be used as evidence for an IPC/CH classification. Similarly, excess mortality rates due to murder or conflict if they are not related to food consumption deficits should not be used as evidence for a Phase classification. FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 24
CONVERGENCE OF EVIDENCE FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 25
Develop an evidence base for your classification Outcome indicator Food Consumption Summary of Available Evidence FCS: 17% of hh with poor or borderline FCS HDDS: 6 food groups compared to 7 food groups last year Households reported reduced consumption of the main staple, rice, and above-average reliance on wild food consumption for this time of year. Livelihood change FEWS NET field assessment in July 2015 (last month) reported normal livelihood activities with no use of atypical coping Households report migrating to regional center, although is seasonally normal Nutritional status GAM: 15.7% Mortality CDR: 0.33; U5DR:.97 FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 26
How do you make a HH level classification? The golden rule for analysis and classification: convergence of evidence Direct evidence (e.g. HH energy intake, HDDS, rcsi, FCS, evidence of distressed coping strategies) Indirect evidence (e.g. influence of conflict on access to food, terms of trade) Food consumption Livelihoods change FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 27
Remember, the evidence should converge toward the phase descriptions FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 28
Looking for the convergence of evidence Outcome indicator Food Consumption Livelihood change Nutritional status Mortality Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 X X X X FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 29
IPC 2.0 Area Phase Classification PHASE 1 Minimal PHASE 2 Stressed PHASE 3 Crisis PHASE 4 Emergency PHASE 5 Famine! Households are meeting their basic food and nonfood needs without unsustainable coping strategies. Household food consumption is minimally adequate. Households are unable to afford some essential nonfood expenditures without unsustainable coping strategies. Households face food consumption gaps or are only meeting minimal food needs through unsustainable coping strategies. Households face extreme food consumption gaps or are experiencing extreme loss of livelihood assets that will likely lead to food consumption gaps. Households have a near complete lack of food and/or other basic needs. Starvation, death, and destitution are evident 1. Phase classification would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance. URGENT ACTION REQUIRED 1 Famine (IPC Phase 5) is defined as the situation in which three conditions are met: at least 20 percent of an area s population faces an extreme lack of food, at least 30 percent of children are acutely malnourished, and the crude death rate exceeds 2/10,000/day. 30 FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Source: FEWS NET
GUIDING PRINCIPLES FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 31
Monitoring, assessment, decision-support FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 32
Seasonal Calendar Outlook Period APR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR Main season cultivation Main harvest Off-season harvest Livestock migration S to N Rainy season Livestock migration N to S Pastoral lean season Household labor migration APR Agricultural lean season Peak labor demand for weeding and harvesting Peak labor demand for harvesting Peak labor demand for off-season agriculture Household labor migration APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR Source: FEWS NET FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 33
Livelihood-based analysis disaggregates food and income sources by season and by wealth group Would a spike in staple food prices have the same impact during this period...as in this period? Why or why not? FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 34
Guiding principles for Food security analysis Classification focuses on food security outcomes Shocks Impacts Response Outcomes Food crop production will be 30 percent below normal due to drought. Households will sell 30 percent less grain and will sell earlier than normal > Moderate reduction in income from cereal crop sales Less grain will be available on the market > prices to rise by more than normal starting in Jun-Jul Poor households will increase reliance on remittances and send one additional house member to labor in urban areas Poor households in the SG19 LHZ will face food deficits of ~25% during the months of August- October. FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 35
CH principles Institutional anchoring of the CH: lead, ensured by the coordinating national Food and nutritional information system; Neutrality during the analysis: neutral, consensual and inclusive analysis and with the contributions of a maximum of stakeholders; Proactive communication of the CH results : To decision makers, NGOs, Donors, etc. FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 36
Minimum Standards Analysts should observe neutrality and be independent-minded in the quest for consensus. The following standards are required in CH analysis process: o The CH analysis team includes all technical stakeholders in areas related to food and nutrition security; o All stakeholders must share in full transparency all evidence they hold and that enables current and projected situation analysis; FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 37
Minimum Standards Analysts have to work together as a team to produce reliable information that reflect to the maximum extent possible the reality of food and nutrition situation, based on reliable evidence and using a participatory, inclusive and consensual approach. In some countries, local specific factors (lack of reliable or updated data, etc.) can prevent the application of all required standards. In such a case, there is a need to ensure that the food and nutrition situation analysis conforms to the guidelines on consensus provided in the CH manual. FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 38
For More Information Laouali Ibrahim West Regional FEWS NET Representative librahim@fews.net Tel.: 777-876-494 Dakar, Senegal To subscribe to FEWS NET s reports, please visit www.fews.net FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 39