Comprehensive Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems By Robert Stefanski
World Meteorological Organiza<on United Na<ons agency for weather, climate, hydrology and water resources and related environmental issues. 191 Members from Na<onal Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) New Member South Sudan (Dec 2012) 10 major scien<fic & technical programmes (Secretariat) 8 Technical Commissions advise & guide ac<vi<es of programmes (Experts) 6 Regional Associa<ons involved in implementa<on 2
Regional Associa<ons of WMO RA- IV RA- VI RA- II RA- I RA- III RA- V
Regional Climate Centers Opera<onal Ac<vi<es for Long Range Forecas<ng Opera<onal Ac<vi<es for Climate Monitoring Perform climate diagnos7cs including analysis of climate variability and extremes, at regional and sub- regional scales; Establish an historical reference climatology for the region and/or sub- regions; Implement a regional Climate Watch Opera<onal Data Services Develop regional climate datasets, gridded where applicable; Provide climate database and archiving services, at the request of NMHSs. Training in the use of opera<onal RCC products and services
Regional Climate Centers RCC for Caribbean - Caribbean Ins<tute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) RCC for Western South America - Centro Internacional para la Inves<gación del Fenómeno de El Niño (CIIFEN) RCC- Network for Southern South America
High-Level Meeting on National Drought Policies March 11-15 2013 Over 414 participants from 87 countries Main Partners UNCCD, FAO, WMO Key message: Help countries move from reactive to proactive drought policies 12 representatives of UN agencies and international and regional organizations (NOAA, UNU, IFRC, IOM, CBD, WFP, IAEA, UNECA, JRC, ICARDA, GWP, ACMAD, ISDR) Final Declaration adopted www.wmo.int/hmndp 6
The cycle of disaster management Source: Na<onal Drought Mi<ga<on Center, University of Nebraska- Lincoln
www.droughtmanagement.info 8
Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) Established in 2013 at HMNDP Main co-sponsors WMO and Global Water Partnership along with over 30 other organizations including FAO, UNCCD, and CBD Supports stakeholders at all levels by providing policy and management guidance and by sharing scientific information, knowledge and best practices for Integrated Drought Management. Contributes to global coordination of drought-related efforts of existing organizations & agencies
IDMP Partners AEMET - Spanish Meteorological Agency Australian Bureau of Meteorology CONAGUA Mexico s Na7onal Water Commission FAO - Food and Agriculture Organiza<on of the United Na<ons FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network UNCCD - United Na<ons Conven<on to Combat Deser<fica<on UNCBD - Conven<on on Biological Diversity George Mason University Global Environment and Natural Resources Ins7tute ICARDA - Interna7onal Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas ICID - Interna7onal Commission for Irriga7on and Drainage IMTA - Mexican Ins7tute of Water Technology IWMI - Interna7onal Water Management Ins7tute JRC - Joint Research Centre SEI - Stockholm Environment Ins7tute NDMC - U.S. Na7onal Drought Mi7ga7on Center NIDIS - U.S. Na7onal Integrated Drought Informa7on System UNDP Cap- Net UNDP - United Na7ons Development Progamme UNESCO United Na7ons Educa7onal, Scien7fic and Cultural Organiza7on UNEP - United Na7ons Environment Programme UNISDR United Na7ons Office for Disaster Risk Reduc7on University of Nebraska Daugherty Water for Food Ins7tute University of Southern Queensland UNU Flores World Bank 10
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Drought Ac<vi<es FAO, UNCCD, WMO, CBD and UN Water - 6 Regional National Drought Management Policy Workshops (2013-2015) Eastern Europe, Latin America, Asia-Pacific, North Africa and Western Asia East and Southern Africa, West Africa IDMP Regional Projects Central and Eastern Europe (since 2013) Horn of Africa (since 2014) West Africa (since 2015) South Asia Drought Monitoring System (since 2014) with IWMI Central America (since 2013). South America (since 2015) - Developing South American Drought Monitoring System Pacific Islands (since 2016)
Drought Publica<ons
Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices Handbook is a resource to cover most commonly used drought indicators/indices A star<ng point to describe and characterize the most common indicators and indices and their applica<ons Does not recommend a best set of indicators and indices, given research requirements for appropriate applica<on in loca<on in ques<on.
Importance of a Drought Monitoring System allows for early drought detec7on improves response (proac)ve) triggers ac7ons within a drought plan a cri7cal mi)ga)on ac7on founda)on of a drought plan Source: Svoboda, 2009 16
Poten<al Monitoring System Products and Reports Historical analysis (climatology, impacts, magnitude, frequency) Opera)onal assessment (coopera7ve data, SPI and other indices, automated networks, satellite and soil moisture data, media and official requests) Predic)ons/Projec)ons (SPI and other indices, soil moisture, streamflow, seasonal forecasts, SST s) Source: Svoboda, 2009 17
Selec<ng drought indicators and indices Timely detec7on of drought to trigger appropriate communica7on and coordina7on to mi7gate or respond Sensi7vity to climate, space and 7me to determine drought onset and termina7on Responsive to reflect drought impacts occurring on the ground Which indicators/indices and triggers to use for going into and coming out of drought Data for indices/indicator available and record consistent Ease of implementa7on? (Human, ins7tu7onal and financial capacity available)
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The US Drought Monitor is widely used: Policy Numerous states use as a drought trigger (Governor s declara7ons) 2006-07 IRS (tax deferral on livestock losses) 2008 Farm Bill NWS Drought Informa7on Statements ~3.75M page views and ~2M visitors/year Media: The Weather Channel and all major newspapers and Network News Presidential/Congressional briefings A model of interagency/level collaboration Source: Svoboda, 2009 20
North American Drought Monitor (NADM) + + =
NorthEast Brazil Drought Monitor Agência Pernambucana de Águas e Clima (APAC) Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos (FUNCEME) Ins7tuto de Meio Ambiente e Recursos Hídricos (INEMA) do Estado da Bahia
Components of a Drought Early Warning and Informa<on System Monitoring AND Forecas7ng Tools for decision makers Drought risk assessment and planning Educa<on and awareness Communica<on An early warning must contain a statement of poten7al future risk, whether through persistence from trends, a forecast, a scenario or an analog 23
Indicators Triggers Actions I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-1 Level 1 (SPI 0.0 to -0.99) Level 2 (SPI -1.0 to -1.49) Level 3 (SPI -1.5 to -1.99) Level 4 (SPI -2.0) Level 2 Action 1 Action 2 Action 3 Time during normal condi<ons Consider I- 1 is SPI Consider Level 2 ; SPI = - 1.25 (Moderate drought) Consider Ac<on 1: Ban watering lawns Consider Ac<on 2: Dig extra wells for livestock and wildlife in area Consider Ac<on 3: Reduce irriga<on of annual crops by 50% WMO, UNCCD, FAO, UN-Water - Europe Regional Workshop on National Drought Management Policies. 9-11 July 2013, Bucharest, Romania
3 Pillars of Integrated Drought Management MONITORING/ EARLY WARNING Drought status FEEDBACK DROUGHT CHARACTERIZATION STUDIES INTEGRATED DROUGHT MANAGEMENT VULNERABILITY & IMPACT ASSESSMENT Who/What is at RISK & Why? Priori7za7on/ Ranking MITIGATION & Ac7ons and measures to mi7gate drought PREPAREDNESS impacts and prepare to respond to drought emergencies more effec7vely
Workshop on Developing a Drought Monitoring and EWS for South America 8-10 August 2017 Buenos Aires, Argen<na Technical Workshop Requested by WMO President of South American Region Par<cipants from 13 Countries - NMHS Agriculture, Energy and Water Recommended to develop detailed consensus plan to implement a regional South American Drought Informa<on System (DIS) ini<ally focused on 6 Southern South American Countries and subsequently expanded to the en<re region. Plan would aim to iden<fy exis<ng & needed drought informa<on, data, and products, and to elicit regional priori<es for the desired capabili<es of a DIS. 26
Thank you