Livestock production in developing countries: globally significant and locally relevant John McDermott Deputy Director General

Livestock production in developing countries: globally significant and locally relevant John McDermott Deputy Director General Swedish Agricultural University Agricultural Research for Development Scales and Diversity Conference September 28-29, 2011, Uppsala, Sweden

Livestock in Developing Countries Globally Significant 1. Global trends and drivers 2. Environmental implications 3. Livestock issues - developing vs developed Locally Relevant 1. Important systems for the poor 2. Future issues and choices

Annual growth in per capita consumption of livestock products

Revised demand for livestock products to 2050 Annual per capita consumption Total consumption year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt) Developing 2002 2050 28 44 44 78 137 326 222 585 Developed 2002 2050 78 94 202 216 102 126 265 295 Rosegrant et al 2009

Population Growth in Developing and Industrialized Countries: 1750-2050

A strong increase in demand for meat and milk as income grows 5 The Livestock Revolution: Log per capita consumption of meat 4 3 2 1 0 China India 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Log per capita GNP Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study. Trend 7

As people get richer they consume more animal products 1962 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 Consumption Kg/person/year Cereals 132 145 159 170 161 156 Roots and tubers 18 19 17 14 15 15 Starchy roots 70 73 63 53 61 61 Meat 10 11 14 19 27 29 Milk 28 29 34 38 45 48 Steinfeld et al 2006

TROPICAL BIOMASS TRADEOFFS Intensive Agriculture Natural Habitats soil fertility Conservation agriculture energy grains fodder trees food feed feed people Monogastrics livestock Ruminants livestock products

In intensive systems, feed shortages for ruminants might increase demand for cereals further this will increase competition for biomass with other sectors TRADE-OFFS livestock Monogastrics mostly + ruminants Feed energy grains livestock products Food human consumption groundnut pigeon pea chickpea sorghum millet sugar cane cassava sweet potatos potatos soybeans oil grains maize wheat rice milk eggs poultry lamb pork beef -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 % change from 2000 reference 2030 biofuels 2030 Prices: further increases? Herrero et al. 2009

When it was all holding together Wood et al. 2005 it might still do but it is much more complicated and we need to target appropriate investments thoughtfully

ETHANOL PRODUCTION Millions of gallons BIODIESEL PRODUCTION Millions of gallons Mostly from grain feedstocks except for Brazil Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017

Increasing land and water constraints (WDR, 2008) 180 160 Cropland per capita of agricultural population 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 ECA LAC MENA EAP SA SSA 0 1961 1967 1973 1979 Index of cropland per ag population (1961=100) 1985 Percent (%) 1991 1997 2003 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 % of population in absolute water scarcity - SSA SA EAP MENA ECA LAC

Projected land use changes to 2050 from several studies (Smith et al 2010) Cropland +10 to 20% Rangeland avg = 10% Natural habitats 0 to -20% Croplands expanding at a faster rate than rangelands Key driver: Expansion of monogastric production and intensification of ruminant production with grains

Rates of cereal production due to water and other constraints in places Annual changes in Cereal Production 2000-2030 Rates lower than those of population growth 6 5 4 Catching up Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar to developed countries % 3 2 1 0 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

Rates of production of animal products increase at significantly faster rates. Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030 % 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total Increased consumption Increased incomes AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030 but increased pressure on resources (land, feeds, etc) Growing industrialisation. % 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

Livestock and GHG: 10-12 [rather than 18%] of global emissions N 2 O Deforestation Enteric fermentation CH 4 CO 2 Production Chemical N. fertilisants fert. production N Energie On-farm fossile ferme fuel Déforestation Deforestation Sol OM cultivé release from ag. soils Désertification Pasture degradation pâturages Transformation Processing fossil fuel Transport fossil fuel Fermentation Enteric fermentation ruminale Effluents, Manure storage stockage/traitement / processing Epandage N fertilization fertilisants N Production Legume production légumineuses Effluents, Manure storage stockage/traitement / processing Effluents, Manure spreading épandage/dépôt / dropping Effluents, Manu indirect emission emissions indirecte Prepared by Bonneau, 2008

Developing vs developed differences: Production No consolidation of small into larger farms (Africa) Livelihoods will require high-value products and diversification Cultivated land per agricultural person (ha) (FAO) 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 Ethiopia 0.51 0.45 0.36 0.25 Kenya 0.50 0.35 0.28 0.23 Mozambique 0.39 0.37 0.30 0.25 Rwanda 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.16 Zambia 1.37 1.07 0.90 0.78 Zimbabwe 0.73 0.66 0.58 0.53

An example of the changing nature of livestock systems W. Africa 1966 pastoral system 2004 crop-livestock system Courtesy of B. Gerard

Developing vs developed differences: Markets Booming Demand how will the poor participate? Nature of demand differs by country type (World Development Report 2008) Agriculturally based / Transforming/ Urbanizing Demand differs by income (Table 1.4 LLS, 2006) - quantity < USD 5 per day - quality critical > 10 USD per day Evolution to longer and more complex value chains Greatest opportunities in agriculturally-based poor countries is in local and not export markets

The Livestock Revolution: Growth in meat mainly in industrial systems 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Asia SSA WANA CSA grazing systems industrial systems mixed systems Growth Rates (%/Y) of Meat Production in Different Production Systems in Developing Countries Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study.

Globally, most people are (and will be) in mixed crop livestock systems population (millions) area ( million km2) 480.3 295.1 16.9 1099.2 9.8 35.2 agro-pastoral mixed extensive mixed intensive other 2674 14 Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World Mixed systems produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World and the share will increase to over 60% by 2030

Global Milk Trends 1981-2018 Production Over the past twenty-five years developing countries contributed nearly threequarters of global consumption gains for both meat and dairy...in dairy 80% of production increase came from smallholders

Smallholder dairy systems East Africa and South Asia

Smallholder dairy systems East Africa and South Asia 3. Production efficiency Feeds (important) a. Better utilization of dual purpose crops and agricultural by-products b. high-yielding grasses (Napier, Bracharia spp. c. formulation and supplementation Breeding (important) a. Increase supply of improved animals (potential for strategic application of new technology) b. Role for private entrepreneurs

Can livestock be sustainable? Low Intensive and regulated livestock production Netherlands Poor livestock keepers low output and intensification Livelihood / income Hi Low X Environmental impact Hi Overstocked Communal Unregulated Beef feedlots Unregulated commercial pig or broiler East Asia

Some key trade-offs Biomass: food, feed, fuel and conservation agriculture Sustainability socio-economic versus environmental and how are these valued ( multi-value approach) Choices about where and how we raise animals Wetter versus drier areas Ruminants versus monogastrics Moving towards moderate intensity systems

Livestock and climate change Adaptation and mitigation have to go hand in hand. to generate win/win solutions, especially for poor countries with low carbon footprints Significant adaptation needs as systems change to meet demand for livestock products and/or become more resilient to climate change Mitigation options (developing countries): Bridging large production gaps Reduced deforestation: animals from wetter to drier areas Techs fermentation, many management,. Incentives >> rules Herrero et al 2009

Efficiency of GHG emissions per kg of protein produced methane - kg CO2 / kg protein produced 450,00 400,00 350,00 300,00 250,00 200,00 150,00 100,00 Higher efficiencies in the developed world due to better diets......but highest potential for improvement in the developing world by improving diets developed developing BRICS 50,00 0,00 7,50 8,50 9,50 10,50 11,50 metabolisable energy (MJ/kg DM) Herrero et al. PNAS (forthcoming)

Consumption: the higher the income, the higher the GHG emissions per capita CO2 emissions (Mt) 8000 7000 6000 45000 40000 35000 GDP per capita, PPP 5000 4000 30000 25000 20000 3000 15000 2000 10000 1000 5000 0 Sub-Saharan Africa South East Asia Latin America South Asia Oceania East Asia Europe North America 0 CO2 emissions (Mt) Average GDP per capita (PPP) McDermott et al 2010

What might change in future? 1. Dramatic change in relative prices of grain to meat (ruminants versus monogastrics) 2. Improvements in inputs and arrangements for sustainable intensification of smallholder agriculture to meet demands 3. Better valuation of environmental and / or social (equity) externalities and how to manage these Incentives and rules (poor versus richer countries) Livestock in drier versus wetter areas

International Livestock Research Institute Better lives through livestock Animal agriculture to reduce poverty, hunger and environmental degradation in developing countries www.ilri.org