Technology Roadmap Nanotechnology Applications in Manufacture of Carbon Fibers and Carbon Fiber The Roadmap for Nanotechnology Applications in Manufacture of Carbon Fibers and Carbon Fiber (hereafter Roadmap) is a review document describing the multi-layer system of strategic development for carbon fiber industry within a common timescale. It also contains the parameters that reflect economic efficiency of advanced technologies and products characterized by a high potential demand and attractive consumer properties. The Roadmap is based on the expert evidence as well as on the review of Russian and foreign analytics. The Roadmap refers to the demand structure for carbon fibers and outlines the most prospective markets for carbon fiber products. The Roadmap provides an assessment of technical capabilities required for manufacturing of carbon fibers with the most preferable consumer properties which would allow generating the significant competitive advantages for goods produced involving carbon fibers. Subject Overview Carbon fiber (CF) is a nanostructured organic material containing 92-99.99% of carbon, characterized by high tensile strength and elasticity modulus. Nowadays carbon fibers are used primarily as reinforcing fillers in composite materials. Simultaneously they are considered as the most potentially advanced structural materials used into domestic products and their elements. The Roadmap covers the following four basic types of carbon fibers whose properties are expected to obtain widespread long-term applications for its major consumer markets: 1. Polyacrylonitrile (PAN)-based carbon fiber; 2. Rayon-based carbon fiber; 3. Pitch-based carbon fiber; 4. Vapour-grown carbon fiber. Competitive advantages of each type that listed above are shown in Table 1 below. State Corporation Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies, 2010
Comparison of Carbon Fiber Types Table 1 PAN-Based Carbon Fiber; Carbon Fiber Type Rayon-Based Carbon Fiber Pitch-Based Carbon Fiber Vapour-Grown Carbon Fiber Tensile strength, GPa 1.8 7.0 0.35 0.70 1.4 4.0 1.0 4.0 Tensile modulus, GPa 200 600 20 60 140 930 200 300 Price, $/kg 40 20 300 N/A Consumption market size 1 2 Technological maturity Fiber yield Feedstock and production facilities in Russia Biocompatibility According to the research findings, at the present moment PAN-based carbon fibers obtain the largest market share, with its applications ranging from mass consumer goods to specially-applied equipment. Rayon-based carbon fibers are reasonably considered to be used prospectively in medical applications as well as in the areas where the use of this particular carbon fibers type is required by respective norms and regulations. The employment of pitch-based carbon fibers is restricted to special applications. In particular, it is estimated that a combination of pitch- and PAN-based carbon fibers could be integrated within the production of gas centrifuges. Regarding vapour-grown carbon fibers, it should be mentioned that their production technology is at its early, research stage now, so it is a subject to significant enhancements, therefore products, employed this type of carbon fibers were not introduced into the market yet. However, evidences from market trends research confirms that vapour-grown carbon fibers are anticipated to have a wide range of applications which could be accounted for their low future price at relatively high performance characteristics. Carbon fiber composite materials are complex materials formed by combination of carbon fibers, as reinforcing elements, and a binding substance (matrix). Mechanical and other properties of a carbon fiber composite material could be defined by three factors: tensile strength of carbon fibers, rigidity of the matrix and fiber-matrix adhesion. Carbon fiber composites excel in all three key parameters of any structure or construction: strength, rigidity, and low specific weight. Carbon fibers predominate over all known reinforcing fiber types involved in composite materials production in terms of tensile 1 The " " mark indicates that the parameter is available. Parameters' degrees are marked as follows: " " high; " " medium; " " low. The " " mark shows that the parameter is not available or does not exist. 2 Vapour-grown carbon fibers are not currently present on the market. New market niche launch is anticipated in the future. State Corporation Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies, 2010 2
strength and tensile modulus. That results in enhanced tensile strength and tensile modulus properties of carbon fiber composites that exceed those one, that aluminum and steel are characterized. Moreover, carbon fibers' specific weight does not outreach 2 g/cm 3 which allows generating structures or constructions twice as light as those that made from aluminum and five times as light as those that made from steel. The Roadmap covers the following four core types of carbon fiber composites whose properties are expected to obtain all the anticipated indicators that would facilitate their long-term broad practical insight: 1. Carbon fiber polymer-matrix composites (carbon fiber-reinforced plastics); 2. Carbon-carbon composites; 3. Carbon fiber metal-matrix composites; 4. Carbon fiber ceramic-matrix composites. A comparison of all above-listed characteristics of four carbon fiber composites types are shown in Table 2 below. Comparison of Carbon Fiber Composites Table 2 Carbon Fiber Polymer-Matrix Composites (CFRPs) Carbon Fiber Composite Carbon- Carbon Composites Carbon Fiber Metal-Matrix Composites Carbon Fiber Ceramic- Matrix Composites Tensile strength 0.9-3.5 GPa Tensile modulus Technological background Technological simplicity Chemical and thermal resistance Consumption market size As is seen from the table above, the largest potential market share belongs to CFRPs (polymer-matrix composites) due to their high consumer properties (both mechanical and physical one) and relative simplicity of production process. It is estimated that carboncarbon composites would take the niche of special applications, in particular in the areas with sufficient technological background (e.g., brakes, etc.). Metal matrix composites would find their place mostly in the aircraft industry while ceramic matrix composites would find an industrial application under high-temperature conditions. State Corporation Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies, 2010 3
World Market of Carbon Fibers According to the market research findings, the world market of carbon fibers is expected to progress following one of the three prospective scenarios (see Figure 1 below): Figure 1. World Market of Carbon Fibers( MM $) Pessimistic Moderate Optimistic The optimistic scenario assumes that the global economic crisis would slow the CF annual market growth down to 10% (or even it would allow maintaining the current annual growth rate of 15%). Then along with the begging of the world economy growth resumption the CF market real growth rates would also subject to recovery. They are expected to regain its present level and would set up down the ceiling of 20-25% per year. However, due to the reduction in prices the market growth in monetary terms would be lower, comprising 10-15% per year. The major anticipated market drivers should comprise from the following three components: 1) growth in demand for CF encouraged, among others, by introduction of respective regulatory requirements and standards; 2) technological advance; 3) reduction in CF price. The moderate scenario involves that after reaching the bottom of 5% of annual growth rate over 2009-2010, the market growth rate would recover. On average, the market annual growth rate in 2013-2015 in real terms would equal to 10-15% in the monetary terms, while because of the price downturn, the market would grow by 5-10% annually. The major market drivers that could foster the growth under this scenario would be the government support given to strategic industries, development of innovative applications, and gradual growth in demand for CF products associated with the requirements of defense industry. The pessimistic scenario is based on the assumption that the problems in the world economy would primarily and most gravely affect the knowledge-intensive industries. In this case, in the nearest two years the anticipated annual market growth rate would stagnate at 2-3% and the annual growth would have rather an "inflationary" character State Corporation Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies, 2010 4
floating at 5-6% later on. Yet, experts evaluate the probability to implement this pessimistic scenario as rather low. Russian Market of Carbon Fibers The investigation of the Russian market of carbon fibers revealed the following development in three following scenarios (see Figure 2 below): Figure 2. Russian Market of Carbon Fibers (MM $) Pessimistic Moderate Optimistic The optimistic scenario incorporates that the structure of carbon fiber consumption in Russia would generally follow the international pattern while the production would reach a new quality, quantity and price level. According to this scenario, by 2013 the market growth rate would equal 45-50% per annum in average. Furthermore in such a case the growth would result most likely into one decisive jump, rather than in gradual upward flow over the whole period. After 2017, this peak would flatten to approximate to the reflection of the world average growth rate of 10-20%. In the medium term Russia may be exporting up to 20% share in its total domestic CF production. By 2020, Russia's share in the world CF production volume is expected to reach the 5% level. The moderate scenario is based on the assumption that by 2020 Russia would produce about 3% of the world's CF yield while exporting up to 5-10% of its domestic output. The civil, non-defense needs would be met by the emerging production of mediumquality fibers along with maintaining the country's positions in production of highmodulus fiber at a present level. By 2013, carbon fibers output is expected to reach 600 tons per annum which corresponds to an average annual growth rate of 30-35%. However, a gentle growth in this case actually regards to be unlikely: it is anticipated that in 2013 (the year when the Russian federal program for small-scale chemical plants will be completed) the fiber production output would jump up sharply. At the same time in 2013-2017 this growth rate could get even faster, thereafter slowing down to the 10-15% annual limits. State Corporation Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies, 2010 5
The pessimistic scenario assumes that Russia would not have sufficient resources to ensure a considerable increase in CF production output and to boost its quality up to the competitive level. That would be the reason for an estimation of the country's market share in the world CF production on the 0.5% line without any prospects to rise up. In this case the country's CF export outlook in terms of product quality and its price would remain uncertain. Simultaneously, the growth in domestic CF consumption would be most likely covered by import supplies. Carbon Fiber Market Segments The following seven major application areas for carbon fibers have been identified in the course of the thorough investigations: 1. Aerospace industry; 5. Sports and leisure sector; 2. Construction industry; 6. Oil and gas production and transportation; 3. Energy sector; 7. Medicine. 4. Industrial sector; Engine elements of airplanes, helicopters and rockets Structural parts for airplanes, helicopters and gliders Weight saving Long-term supply contracts The penetration of carbon fiber composites into new areas of airframe structure 1. Aerospace Industry Stealth aerial vehicles Space antennas Reentry module skin High production and R&D time High raw material and processing cost Complicated processing of raw material High carbon fiber cost Advantages of Alternative Glass-reinforced plastics Aramid-reinforced plastics Relatively low density Relatively low cost (10-20 USD per kilo) Long-term thermal resistance (about 180 Radiowave transparency 200 C) Silicon carbide-based composites Steel High shock resistance High wear resistance Titanium Favourable cost/strength ratio High corrosion resistance Relatively low cost Maintainability Aluminum Low cost Increase in share of composite materials applied to improve performance characteristics (in Boeing and Airbus airplanes carbon fiber composites are composed over 50% by weight) Seek opportunities to implement full-cycle (R&D pilot production mass production) projects in Russia Seek to import advanced technologies and equipment State Corporation Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies, 2010 6
Bridge structures Reinforcing elements for high-rise, antiseismic and coastal construction Mobile shelters Significant amount of structurally deficient bridges and buildings Development of new directions of composite application creation of energy efficient buildings Low bridge repair time and cost 2. Construction Industry Elements of chemically resistant equipment and pipelines Concrete reinforcement Reinforced concrete repair elements Absence of respective construction norms and regulations High carbon fiber cost Low awareness of composites' applications among potential consumers Advantages of Alternative Glass-reinforced plastics Basalt-reinforced plastics Relatively low cost Relatively low cost (10-20 USD per kilo) High-temperature and humidity performance capability Increase in share of composite materials applied to improve structures' performance characteristics A lot of bridges in poor condition (over 20% of bridges in Russia have structural defects) Seek opportunities to implement full-cycle (R&D pilot production mass production) projects in Russia Develop respective construction norms and regulations Fly wheels Lattice towers for electricity transmission lines Load-bearing cores of high-voltage cables Rapid development of new niches for composite materials in the sector Energy efficiency as a national priority Creation of new generation gas centrifuges for uranium enrichment Growth of the world wind energy market Demand for light, humidity resistant, durable wind and tidal turbines 3. Energy Sector High-speed rotors Advanced gas centrifuges Wind and tidal turbine blades High carbon fiber cost High risks in the sphere of nuclear power engineering Uncertain prospects for wind energy sector in Russia Advantages of Alternative Glass-reinforced plastics Silicon carbide-based composites High shock resistance Relatively low cost (10-20 USD per kilo) High wear resistance Steel Aluminum Relatively low cost Low cost Maintainability Growth of the world wind energy market (carbon fibers use in rotor blades) Growth of the world nuclear energy market (carbon fibers use in gas centrifuges) State Corporation Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies, 2010 7
Seek opportunities to implement full-cycle (R&D pilot production mass production) projects in Russia for nuclear energy sector Stimulate demand for CFs among manufactures of end products which may apply CFs Penetrate the world wind energy market High-pressure vessels Drive shafts, elements of body and brakes of vehicles Submarines and hovercrafts Thermal insulation Weight reduction Need to increase reliability and safety of vehicles and equipment СО 2 emission reduction efforts Energy efficiency as a national priority Relatively low cost (10-20 USD per kilo) 4. Industrial Sector Load-bearing structures in textile and vehicle engineering Friction units in vehicle engineering Sorbents High carbon fiber cost Complicated processing of raw material High defect ratio in component manufacture Low productivity because of long manufacturing cycle Advantages of Alternative Glass-reinforced plastics Boron-based plastics Favourable combination of tensile strength and tensile modulus High heat resistance Basalt-reinforced plastics Silicon carbide-based composites Relatively low cost High shock resistance High-temperature and humidity High wear resistance performance capability Steel Titanium Relatively low cost Favourable cost/strength ratio Maintainability High corrosion resistance Aluminum Low cost Imposing of tougher carbon dioxide emission standards (weight improvement due to application of CF materials) Improvement in fuel economy Actively promote CF products among target consumer groups at the national level Stimulate demand for CFs among manufactures of end products which may apply CFs Yachts Winter sports equipment Stringed instruments and loudspeaker cones 5. Sports and Leisure Sector Fishing equipment Tennis rackets Growth of sports equipment market High carbon fiber cost Rapid development of new niches for Intense competition from alternative composite materials in the sector materials Advantages of Alternative Aluminum State Corporation Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies, 2010 8
Low cost Increase in the market share of sports products fabricated with the use of composite materials (snowboards, skies, fishing rods, tennis rackets, hockey sticks, boats, etc.) In the medium term finance projects developed to the final stage of production process In the longer term combine moderate direct financing with active efforts to create necessary commercial infrastructure (venture funds, target-oriented industrial parks, etc.) Floating production platforms 6. Oil and Gas Production and Transportation Oil and gas pipelines High carbon fiber cost Penetration into strategic regions (Arctic) High investment risks Rapid development of new niches for Limited number of consumers who use composite materials in the sector respective technologies to fabricate carbon Long-term supply contracts fiber-based products Advantages of Alternative Basalt-reinforced plastics High-temperature and humidity Relatively low cost performance capability Increasing depth of offshore drilling (over 2.4 km) Growing significance of operations in strategic regions (Arctic shelf) Ensure long-term active governmental support to make the sector more attractive for private investors Develop respective norms and regulations (including GOSTs, TUs, technical specifications for end products manufactured with the use of CFs) Wheelchairs Medical implants Rapid development of new materials in medicine High rate of new technologies and innovations 7. Medicine Medical drapes for wound healing (dressings for wounds and burns) Dialyzers High carbon fiber cost Advantages of Alternative Titanium Favourable cost/strength ratio High corrosion resistance Expanding application of new materials (CF-based materials for artificial limbs, drapes, wheel chairs, etc.) Promote participation of Russian CF manufacturers in the final stages of process chains involving the leading companies and countries Invest in manufacture of products with high degree of market readiness State Corporation Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies, 2010 9
CF-based composite materials are directed to find use in a wide range of a certain industrial applications in aircrafts and other equipment where moment of inertia performs as a key factor (fly wheels and high-speed gas centrifuges, for instance). CF-based composites are also material of choice for deep-water drilling for a shelf exploration and for a presence in strategic offshore regions, for instance, on the Arctic shelf. Following the results of carried investigations it is also advisable that industrial applications of carbon fiber should be expanded to include the manufacture of high-performance specifications equipment and likewise vehicles. That could be afforded and achieved, in particular, in the automotive industry to reach significant automobile weight savings and in the ship-building industry to provide ships with low-weight and durable skin. According to the research findings, CF-based materials can also be successfully applied in the manufacture of medical-care products and equipment (wheel chairs, medical implants, medical drapes) as well as products for sports and leisure. These applications are shown as separate, self-sufficient areas on the Roadmap. State Corporation Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies, 2010 10
Technological Innovations Research results indicate that in order to increase in the production output and the quality of carbon fibers significantly a set of measures aimed at finding a solution to the key technological objectives needed to be implemented for further innovation development of a branch. The main efforts should be focused on attaining three fundamentals: to increase in a carbon fiber tensile characteristics (tensile strength and tensile modulus), to decrease in fiber production costs and to augment the quality of carbon fiber composites. The key technological objectives are listed in Table 3. Main Technological Innovations Table 3 1. Technological and equipment enhancements for high-strength carbon fibers production Technology improvements for production PAN precursor to make carbon fibers by wetspinning method Development of dry-wet spinning for PAN production process Technological optimization to reduce defects and impurity level of PAN and carbon fibers Production process adjustment for thermal oxidation and carbonization of PAN fibers Advances in equipment performance for carbon fibers production in the form of bundles 2. Technological and equipment enhancements in order to reduce carbon fiber production costs Advances in equipment performance for industrial PAN precursor production in the form of bundles Reduction of per-unit feedstock consumption rate Designing the equipment for carbon fibers production from textile PAN Technological and equipment development for effective recovery of wastes and other emissions generated within carbon fiber production process Development of new types of precursors and high linear density materials 3. Technological and equipment enhancements for improving quality of carbon fiber composites Optimization of carbon fiber reinforced plastics structure to increase their tensile strength Technological and equipment development of advanced resins containing nanoparticles Development of technologies for surface treatment and structure optimization of lubricants used in composites manufacturing State Corporation Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies, 2010 11
Roadmap Visualization Description The Roadmap visualization includes six major layers (see Figure 3): 1 2 3 The main technological trends, innovations and alternative directions of development in the field of carbon fibers and their composites The most prospective products based on carbon fibers and time of their anticipated market appearance Applications and market prospects of innovation products based on carbon fibers. Forecast of volume and growth rates of the key market segments 4 Alternative technologies, their competiveness and major competitive advantages 5 Forecast of the most important consumer properties of carbon fibers 6 Main barriers and limitations for the carbon fiber industry The Roadmap visualization illustrates the correlations between the key technologies which the carbon fiber industry progress relies on, the properties of current and advanced carbon fibers and carbon fiber composites, and between the most prospective products and their respective market shares whose sizes and performance, in its turn, would determine the state of demand for carbon fibers. Figure 3. Roadmap Visualization State Corporation Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies, 2010 12