Section C: Carbon Cycle Outline C.1 Introduction C.2 The global carbon cycle C.3 Human perturbations to the carbon cycle C.4 Global carbon budget GEOG 313/513 Fall 2016 Global Climate Change 1 Prof J. Hicke
Section C: Carbon Cycle Learning outcomes explain the major stocks of the global carbon cycle understand the major sources and sinks of the carbon cycle and the time scales over which they operate describe the human perturbations to the carbon cycle and where the emitted carbon is going GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014 Global Climate Change 2 Prof J. Hicke
Section C: Carbon Cycle Outline C.1 Introduction C.2 The global carbon cycle C.3 Human perturbations to the carbon cycle C.4 Global carbon budget GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014 Global Climate Change 3 Prof J. Hicke
black arrows: preindustrial red arrows: from human activities Carbon stocks and fluxes stocks fluxes IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013 Global Climate Change 4 Prof J. Hicke
stocks(plants and soil) Carbon stocks incarbon ecosystems Global Climate Change 5 Prof J. Hicke
Carbon stocks cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/global_carbon/carbon_documentation.html Global Climate Change 6 Prof J. Hicke
Carbon fluxes GPP or NPP (and R?) Global Climate Change 7 Prof J. Hicke
Forest disturbances and the C cycle carbon management Sink of C from atmosphere Source of C to atmosphere Cumulative impact: equivalent to 5 years of emissions from Canada s transportation sector Kurz et al. 2008, Nature Global Climate Change Kurz et al., Nature, 8 2008 Slide courtesy W. Prof Kurz, J. Hicke CFS
Sea-to-Air Carbon Flux to sea to air cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/ldeo_underway_database/pco2_flux_rate_maps.html Global Climate Change 9 Prof J. Hicke
Long-term Carbon Cycle www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/lectures/kling/carbon_cycle/carbon_cycle.html Global Climate Change 10 Prof J. Hicke
Section C: Carbon Cycle Outline C.1 Introduction C.2 The global carbon cycle C.3 Human perturbations to the carbon cycle C.4 Global carbon budget GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014 Global Climate Change 11 Prof J. Hicke
Global Climate Change www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ 12 Prof J. Hicke
Animation of CO2 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/hi story.html Global Climate Change 13 Prof J. Hicke
Annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 Global Climate Change 14 Prof J. Hicke dougrobbins.blogspot.com/2012/04/modeling-global-co2-cycles.html
Fossil Fuel and Cement Emissions Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 36.1 ± 1.8 GtCO 2 in 2013, 61% over 1990 Projection for 2014 : 37.0 ± 1.9 GtCO 2, 65% over 1990 Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC likely range) Estimates for 2011, 2012, and 2013 are preliminary Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios Emissions are on track for 3.2 5.4ºC likely increase in temperature above pre-industrial Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC Data: CDIAC/GCP/IPCC/Fuss et al 2014 Over 1000 scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report are shown Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute) The top four emitters in 2013 covered 58% of global emissions China (28%), United States (14%), EU28 (10%), India (7%) Bunkers fuel used for international transport is 3% of global emissions Statistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals is 3% of global emissions Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita) China s per capita emissions have passed the EU28 and are 45% above the global average Per capita emissions in 2013 Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Size of country proportional to total CO2 emissions in 2009 Global Climate Change 19 Prof J. Hicke
CO2e emissions by sector (source) US EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 2012, 2014 IPCC AR4, 2007 Global Global Climate Change 20 Prof J. Hicke
US emissions by consumers of fossil fuels EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 2012, 2014 State of the Carbon Cycle Report, 2007 Global Climate Change 21 Prof J. Hicke
Including all greenhouse gases in calculation of CO 2 e Global Climate Change 22 Prof J. Hicke
Tropical deforestation www.argentinaindependent.com/socialissues/environment/a mazonian-deforestation-soars/ www.ibtimes.com/reversal-fortune-deforestationamazon-rainforest-increased-28-over-past-year-1472840 Global Climate Change 23 www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2013/05/31/187301981/battling-deforestation-inindonesia-one-firm-at-a-time Prof J. Hicke
Deforestation patterns Global Climate upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b6/fires_and_deforestation_on_the_amazon_frontier%2c_rondonia%2c_brazil_-_august_12%2c_2007.jpg Change 24 Prof J. Hicke
Arc of deforestation (red) in Amazon http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/amazon/problems/ Global Climate Change 25 Prof J. Hicke
Historical Emissions from Land Use Change Carbon Emissions from Tropical Deforestation 1.80 1.60 1.40 Africa Latin America 2000-2007 1.5 GtonC y -1 (16% total emissions) Pg C yr -1 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 S. & SE Asia SUM 0.40 0.20 0.00 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 R.A. Houghton, unpublished Global Climate Change 26 Prof J. Hicke
Land-Use Change Emissions Global land-use change emissions are estimated 3.3 ± 1.8 GtCO 2 during 2004 2013 The data suggests a general decrease in emissions since 1990 Indonesian peat fires Three different estimation methods have been used, indicated here by different shades of grey Land-use change also emits CH 4 and N 2 O which are not shown here Source: Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Total Global Emissions by Source Land-use change was the dominant source of annual CO 2 emissions until around 1950 Coal consumption continues to grow strongly Others: Emissions from cement production and gas flaring Source: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Section C: Carbon Cycle Outline C.1 Introduction C.2 The global carbon cycle C.3 Human perturbations to the carbon cycle C.4 Global carbon budget GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014
Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions (2004-2013 average) 32.4±1.6 GtCO 2 /yr 91% 15.8±0.4 GtCO 2 /yr 44% 3.3±1.8 GtCO 2 /yr 9% + 10.6±2.9 GtCO 2 /yr 29% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components 26% 9.4±1.8 GtCO 2 /yr Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Carbon uptake by land and ocean IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013 Global Climate Change 31 Prof J. Hicke
Global carbon budget IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013 Global Climate Change 32 Prof J. Hicke
Global Carbon Budget Emissions are partitioned between the atmosphere, land, and ocean Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Global Carbon Budget The cumulative contributions to the Global Carbon Budget from 1870 Contributions are shown in parts per million (ppm) sources sinks Figure concept from Shrink That Footprint Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
North American carbon budget State of the Carbon Cycle Report, 2007 Global Climate Change 35 Prof J. Hicke
Large uncertainties in model results for uptake of carbon on land IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013 Global Climate Change 36 Prof J. Hicke
Large uncertainties when modeling future vegetation type columns: different GCMs rows: different assumptions about vegetation (amount of CO2 and its effect on photosynthesis) Lapola et al., 2009 Global Climate Change 37 Prof J. Hicke