Getting Skills Right Assessing and anticipating changing skills needs ETF Regional Workshop on identification and matching of skills needs in the South Eastern European countries and Turkey FABIO MANCA Fabio.manca@oecd.org
Skill shortages and mismatch can have various adverse effects For countries or economies: Lower productivity and lower economic output (vacancies unfilled, unused human capital) High (re)training costs For individual workers Lower earnings Lower job satisfaction Higher job-turnover The ability to assess and anticipate skill shortages and mismatches has become a notable policy concern: World Economic Forum 2014 G20 Training Strategy G20 Employment Plans
How much qualification mismatch is there? In 2012 and across the EU-27, 23% of workers experienced qualification mismatch. Qualification mismatch is highest in Malta and Ireland (35%+) but also common in Sweden (30%). Over-qualification is roughly twice as common as under-qualification Qualification mismatch in Europe does not seem to have changed substantially since 2006 but it increased by more than 4 p.p in Norway, Slovenia, Switzerland and the United Kingdom Source: OECD calculations based on the European Labour Force Survey (2012, 2006). Data are unavailable for Turkey in the public user file of the EULFS
Self-reported skills mismatch Romania Greece Cyprus* Hungary Latvia Slovenia Albania Germany Croatia Montenegro Slovakia United Kingdom Estonia Spain Sweden Luxembourg Source: OECD calculations based on the European Working Conditions Survey (2010, 2005). Workers are classified as under-skilled if they report that they need further training to cope well with their duties or that they have the skills to cope with more demanding duties. * Footnote by Turkey: The information in this document with reference to «Cyprus» relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Turkey recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of United Nations, Turkey shall preserve its position concerning the Cyprus issue. * Footnote by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European Union: The Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Turkey. The information in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus. Ireland Malta Netherlands Austria Denmark Poland France Lithuania Belgium Czech Republic Norway FYROM Italy Finland Kosovo Bulgaria Turkey Portugal EU-27 How much skills mismatch is there? 90% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Skill mismatch in Europe a,b Self-reported data on skills mismatch 100% (European working condition survey) As a percentage of all employment Underskilled (2010) Overskilled (2010) Total mismatch (2005) 80% Turkey has improved considerably, from around 50% to 37% mismatch 70% in 5 years 0%
How much skills shortage is there? Firms across many developed countries experience skill shortages In Turkey, more than 60% of employers face difficulties in filling their vacancies due to lack of adequate skills in the labour market Skill mismatch and shortages can co-exist due to the inability of the labour market to match the available skills to the right jobs labour markets can be localised at the sector, occupational and/or geographic level (geographical immobility) Educational offer is unable to keep up with fast-changing labour market Source: Manpower Talent Shortage Survey (2014)
The Getting Skills Right project: All OECD countries have some sort of skill assessment or anticipation exercise It is not clear whether and how these exercises inform skills policies Specific objectives: Identify the involvement of stakeholders in the development of skills anticipation systems and the mechanisms for effective collaboration Analyse how skills information is used for policy making Inform employment, education or migration policy? Identify the barriers preventing the use of these exercises for policy making
The assessing and anticipating skill needs questionnaire 4 questionnaires sent: Ministry of Labour Ministry of Education Trade unions (TUAC members) Employer organisations (BIAC members) Received 69 responses from 29 OECD countries 26 Ministries of Labour 12 Ministries of Education 13 Trade unions 18 Employer organisations Work underway: Background report on the main aspects of Skills Assessment and Anticipation (SAA) systems across OECD countries Review of Sweden
All countries have some sort of skills anticipation or assessment exercise Exercises generally led by Ministries, PES or Statistical offices and involve multiple stakeholders in their development Many countries carry out more than one exercise at the time to satisfy different policy needs (e.g. current labour market assessment, medium to long-term skill forecast) Turkey carries out skills assessments, skills forecasts and skills foresight exercises at the national, regional and sector levels. The national level analysis is the most important level of analysis; the regional analyses are also carried out and used to develop policies at the local level. Forecasts are generally used at the sector level for development plans and usually have a time horizon of 5 to 10 years. Exercises are carried out by Provincial Employment Board and Vocational Note: Qualification Percentages based Institutes on responses are from used 28 countries. to design employment and vocational training Source: Questionnaire on Anticipating and Responding to Changing Skill Needs: Ministry of Labour and Ministry of policies Education Questionnaires
Skills are approximated in different ways While most countries triangulate several sources of information (e.g. surveys, labour market intelligence) few integrate both quantitative and qualitative methods (e.g. Australia, Flanders (Belgium), Italy and Korea). In Turkey, skills are generally measured as educational qualifications (by level, type and field of study) but also using qualitative information on processing skills and other generic skills. Note: Percentages based on responses from 28 countries. Source: Questionnaire on Anticipating and Responding to Changing Skill Needs: Ministry of Labour and Ministry of Education Questionnaires
Exercises are being developed in many countries, despite common obstacles Low reliability of exercises is not perceived to hinder the development of skills assessment and anticipation exercises but the reliability of the exercises in Turkey is a concern reported by the Ministry of Education Also, results are not sufficiently disaggregated and they do not easily map into policy relevant variables (see later) Note: Percentages based on responses from 21 countries. Source: Questionnaire on Anticipating and Responding to Changing Skill Needs: Ministry of Labour and Ministry of Education Questionnaires
SAA results are used in labour market, education and migration policy Labour market policy Education policy Migration policy
SAA inf. feeds into labour market policy Labour market policy Update occupational standards Revise, design, allocate funds to re-training or on-the-job programmes Develop apprenticeship programmes In the United Kingdom SAA exercises feed into the National Occupation Standards to fast-track the development of standards in new occupations or occupations with changing skill requirements (UKCES, 2011). Chile uses regional-level labour market statistics to produce regional forecasts to define occupational profiles that determine entry requirements for the National Employment and Training Service s (Servicio Nacional de Capacitación y Empleo, SENCE) training offer. In Turkey, the public employment service is one of the organisations that leads SAA exercises and uses them to inform re-training programmes and active labour market programmes.
SAA inf. feeds into education policy Education policy Update qualifications frameworks and curricula Provide information to students about labour market prospects Decide course provision and funding for upper-secondary, tertiary and adult training levels. In Norway, the SAA information reporting an expected lack of engineers, teachers and health professionals was an important input to decide the educational offer of post-secondary education vacancies. In New Zealand, the expected shortage of STEM-related skills and other highly skilled professions led to the increase in university vacancies and reduced tuition feeds for related programmes. In Turkey, SAA is used to design apprenticeships in occupations and industries with greater demand for skilled labour. SAA information (e.g. annual Labour Market Surveys) is an input to work-based learning programmes in occupations where skills are in need, (as determined by the Provincial Employment and Vocational Training Boards following analyses)
SAA inf. feeds into Migration policy Migration policy In Australia and New Zealand, SAA information is used to place occupations in high demand on special shortage lists (e.g. the Skilled Occupations List (SOL) in Australia, the Skill Shortage List (SSL) in New Zealand). In Canada, the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) is used by the agency in charge of immigration to define priority occupations for the Federal Skilled Worker Programme In Turkey?...
Many different policy domains are affected but what are the most common barriers and challenges to use SAA information for policy making? 9/2/15
Barriers can limit the use of SAA information for policy making 1. Exercises may not be aligned to potential policy use Results are not sufficiently disaggregated Output is too technical Skills proxies do not map to useful variables in policy-making Time inconsistencies (policy cycle and when results are obtained) 2. Key stakeholders may not be sufficiently engaged Results are not sufficiently shared with a wider audience (see later) Results are not sufficiently shared with key stakeholders Difficulty to reach consensus in identifying skill needs and priorities Effectively engaging stakeholders in the development of SAA exercises, can help overcome these challenges but that s no easy task!
Good practices in engaging stakeholders across OECD countries Some countries establish mechanisms to enhance discussion and engagement of stakeholders over SAA challenges Formal mechanisms Legal norms governing collaboration across ministries or with other stakeholders (e.g. Italy, the United States) Inclusion of stakeholders in advisory groups to ministries or SAA information providers (e.g. Sweden) Centre skills policy discussions in an external institution that reports to different ministries (e.g. Australia, Ireland, the United Kingdom) Informal mechanisms Set up workgroups with specific objectives and realistic timeframes but also Ensure high-level political engagement Involve sector and social partner organisations
How (well) is SAA information disseminated? The dissemination of information through websites is widespread but it also requires the active engagement of final users. The use of social media should be reinforced across OECD countries.
Channels of diffusion of SAA information.and it comes before. TWITTER!
The way forward: SAA Country Reviews Country reviews offer a systematic and in-depth analysis of the country SAA system s strengths and weaknesses Assessment of the effectiveness SAA exercises, of methodological issues and of strengths and limitation of the approaches Analysis of the involvement and co-ordination across stakeholders in the production of skills assessment and anticipation information Analysis of the uses that are made of skills needs information for policy making and the barriers to more effective development of a policy response to skills imbalances in the country Tailored fact-finding missions to the country to gather essential information. Interviews with relevant stakeholders (e.g. Ministries, Statistical offices, PES, Social Partners ) SAA review of Sweden is underway (publication: early 2016)
Thank you Contact: skillsanticipation@oecd.org Read more about our work Follow us on Twitter: @OECD_Social Website: www.oecd.org/els Newsletter: www.oecd.org/els/newsletter Blog: https://oecdskillsandwork.wordpress.com/
List of countries in the report + where we got replies from Turkey Bodies responding Country Min_EMP Min_EDU Emp Union LEED 1 AUS 1 1 2 AUT 1 1 1 4 BEL 3 1 3 CAN 1 2 3 CHL 1 1 1 1 2 CZE 1 1 1 4.1 DNK 1 0.1 2 1 1.1 EST 1 0.1 4 FIN 1 1 1 1 4.1 FRA 1 0.1 1 2 3 DEU 1 1 1 2 GRC 1 1 1 HUN 1 3 IRL 1 1 1 1 0 ISL 0 ISR 1.1 ITA 0.1 1 1 3 JPN 1 2 1 2 KOR 1 1 0 LUX 0 MEX 2 NLD 1 1 4 NOR 1 1 1 1 0 NZL 1 POL 1 1 3 PRT 1 1 1 1 4 ESP 1 1 2 2 SVK 1 1 1 3 SVN 1 1 1 1 3 SWE 1 1 1 1 1 CHE 1 1 3 TUR 1 1 1 1 GBR 1 1 USA 1 1 9/2/15