Accelerating the global energy transition The 5th Northeast Asia Energy Security Forum Seoul, 12 December 2017
Trends in the energy sector But in the electricity sector renewable energy accounts for the majority of new capacity installed every year Global energy mix still dependent on conventional non-renewable energy
Ongoing power sector transformation Dramatic increase of RE in the global generation mix RE capacity installed in year 2016: 71 GW solar 51 GW wind 30 GW hydropower 9 GW biomass Source: IRENA Around 25% renewable power generation share worldwide
RE Costs - Trends Levelised costs of electricity for utility scale power (ranges and averages), 2010 and 2016 costing.irena.org
Targets in the global renewable energy landscape 173 countries have at least one type of renewable energy target up from 43 in 2005 Source: IRENA (2015), Renewable energy target setting.
Ambitious acceleration needed To meet sustainable development goals and decarbonise global energy use, renewables need to be scaled up significantly. 6
Key role of enabling policies Number of countries with renewable energy policies, by type 100 80 60 40 20 FIT (FIP) RPO Auctions Types of renewable energy policies and measures 0 2005 2010 2015
Weaknesses Strengths Auctions strengths and weaknesses Auctions 70 Number of countries that have adopted auctions Flexibility in the design according to conditions and objectives Permit real price discovery Provide greater certainty regarding prices and quantities Enable commitments and transparency Are associated with relatively high transaction costs for both developer and auctioneer 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Based on REN21 Global Status Report (2005 to 2016) Risk of underbuilding and delays 8
Renewable Energy Auctions RE Auctions - Recent highlights
Policy trends - Auctions Evolution of utility-scale solar PV prices in selected countries
The power sector transition Major shift in the EU over the past 20 years Annual gross aggregated electricity production from gas-fired, solar and wind electricity plants in the European Union 11
Increasing generation from VRE Based on Ecofys
Need for flexibility 13
Crucial role of transmission and distribution grids Average unscheduled cross-border power flows from Germany (MW) Adapted from CESP, MAVIR, PSE SA and SEPS, 2013
Flexibility and Market Design Net load ramps for different penetration levels of solar PV ERCOT Texas (MIT, 2015) CAISO - California (CAISO, 2016)
Rethinking distribution networks and distributed energy resources Distributed generation, demand response, distributed storage, electric vehicles will play a fundamental role in the power system transition Take into consideration benefits for the consumers and for the system as a whole Crucial role of distribution networks Move away from a fit and forget approach Sample day load profile and self consumption from PV for a plastic manufacturing company 16
Key role of technology innovation Value spatial complementarities - interconnections Electrification of other sectors Electric Vehicles Storage Encourage Flexibility Value complementarities in VRE Decentralized system System Operation Market regulation RE Tech. Enabling Infrastructure Business Models Digitalization - IoT Aggregators- VPP Platform business model
Emerging Innovations: E-mobility Storage and Electric Vehicles Smart Charging (mobile storage) Provide flexibility to the grid Grid Services: Primary and secondary reserves: Enhanced Frequency Response Frequency Containment Reserve Frequency Restoration Reserve Energy Shifting Behind-the-meter: Solar self consumption Community Storage Increased Power Quality Peak shaving Grid to Vehicle (G2V): Load management: peak shifting Vehicle to Grid (V2G): Primary and secondary reserves Other ancillary services Energy shifting Vehicle to Home (V2H): Solar self consumption Increased Power Quality Peak shaving
Not only solar and wind Geothermal energy: main benefits STABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCE AVAILABLE 24/7 REDUCED ENERGY DEPENDENCY, STABLE JOBS AND LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT HIGH AVAILABILITY FACTORS (~90%) FOR BASE LOAD AND/OR ANCILLARY SERVICES NEGLIGIBLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND VISUAL IMPACT Geothermal heated greenhouse in Hveragerdi, Iceland Geothermal heated greenhouse in Hveragerdi, Iceland WIDE AVAILABILITY OF LOW TEMPERATURE RESOURCES FOR DIRECT USES FOR BUILDINGS, INDUSTRY, AGRICULTURE, ETC.
Why the modest growth? HIGH UPFRONT COSTS AND RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH RESOURCE ASSESSMENT LACK OF INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY POLICY UNCERTAINTY SHORTAGE OF SKILLED PROFESSIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS AND LICENSING LOW AWARENESS AND LIMITED INFORMATION IN DECISION MAKERS Can international cooperation and partnerships help overcome key geothermal challenges?
The role of Geothermal Global Geothermal Alliance is the platform for improved dialogue and coordinated action among key geothermal stakeholders to scale up geothermal deployment MW 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Geothermal Power Installed Capacity Worldwide Up to 5x geothermal power More than 2x geothermal heat by 2030 63,175 10,000 10,897 12,635 6,832 7,972 8,933 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: IRENA Remap 2030 A Joint Communiqué issued at the GGA Launch Neutrality and transparency Build on what is on the ground and scale up No bureaucracy Enabling most mature projects or countries with transformative potential Unlocking projects facing policy, legal, regulatory, fiscal, funding, capacity building challenges 21
Strong Commitment to GGA Over 70 Members and Partners GGA MEMBERS - 42 COUNTRIES ACCROS THE GLOBE AMERICAS / CARIBBEAN Argentina Bolivia Chile Colombia Costa Rica Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Peru Saint Vincent & Grenadines USA IDB OAS US Geothermal Association US Energy Association Canadian Geothermal Association EUROPE France Iceland Italy Netherlands Poland Romania Switzerland Turkey GLOBAL IRENA International Geothermal Association IsDB UN Environment WB ESMAP AFRICA Burundi Comoros Djibouti Egypt Kenya Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe Nordic Development Fund AfDB European Geothermal Energy Council AUC GeoEnergy Celle e.v. (Germany) EAPP Iceland Geothermal Cluster NEPAD GeoDeep (France) RCREEE Geothermal Power Plants Investors SAPP Association (Turkey) ASIA India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Philippines PACIFIC / OCEANIA Fiji New Zealand Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands Tonga Vanuatu SPC GGA PARTNERS 31 INSTITUTIONS ACCROS THE GLOBE INDUSTRY, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, REGIONAL AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATIONS, ACADEMIA AND RESEARCH 22
GGA Action Plan and priorities Adopted by GGA Members in May 2016 Resource and Market Assessment Needs and Obstacles Assessment Enabling Frameworks Networking and Outreach 23
Renewable energy jobs globally today Employment by Country Including Large Hydropower 1.1% Source: IRENA (2017), Renewable Energy and Jobs Annual Review 2017 Excluding Large Hydropower 2.8% 24
Thank you