Global Food Security Index Sponsored by 26 September 2012
Agenda Overview Methodology Overall results Results for India Website 2
Overview The Economist Intelligence Unit was commissioned by DuPont to research and produce the innovative Global Food Security Index. Defining food security Food security exists when people at all times have physical, social and economic access to sufficient and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs for a healthy and active life. The Global Food Security Index: ranks 105 countries according to their relative levels of food security using 25 indicators divided into three categories: Affordability and Financial Access; Availability; Quality and Safety. 3
Objectives To provide a rigorous, structured framework for understanding the drivers of food security. To enhance the understanding of food security in a global context. Specifically, the index seeks to identify: The factors affecting food security The relationship between these factors Leading and lagging countries How countries can improve food systems to reduce food insecurity Priority areas for each country (e.g. trade policy, infrastructure, agricultural R&D) 4
What are we measuring? This index is the first to examine food security comprehensively across the three internationally established dimensions of food security: Availability, Affordability, and Utilisation called Quality and Safety in the index It looks beyond hunger to the underlying factors that influence the ability of consumers to access sufficient amounts of safe, high quality and affordable food. It will employs a quarterly adjustment factor for food price fluctuations to examine the risks countries face throughout the year. (October 2012 It includes several unique qualitative indicators, developed and scored by Economist Intelligence Unit analysts to capture drivers of food security not currently measured in any international dataset. It displays the results on an interactive website that allows deeper dives into country conditions and the relationships between food security drivers. 5
Agenda Overview Methodology Overall results Results for India Website 6
Framework: Core project processes Phase 1 Index conceptualisation and development Phase 2 Expert panel discussion and research framework finalisation Phase 3 Indicator research and benchmark model creation using a diversity of sources * Phase 4 Key results and analysis reported in an index and Findings and Methodology paper Phase 5 Website launch on July 10, 2012 * Sources include: FAO, WFP, WTO, IPFRI, WHO, World Bank 7
Geographic coverage: 105 countries Canada, United States of America Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, UK Australia, New Zealand Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela Algeria, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Chad, Cote d Ivoire, Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Zambia Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Yemen 8
Index framework Food consumption as a share of household expenditure Percent of population under global poverty line GDP per capita, $US, PPP Agricultural import tariffs Presence of food safety nets Access to finance for farmers Affordability and Financial Access Sufficiency of supply: food supply in kcal/person/day and chronic food aid dependency Public expenditure on agricultural R&D Availability Agricultural infrastructure Volatility of agricultural production Political stability risk Index Diet diversification Food Price Adjustment Factor Government commitment to increasing nutritional standards Micronutrient availability Protein quality Food safety Quality and Safety External Adjustment FAO global food price index adjusted for income growth and pass through coefficient of global to national food prices on a quarterly basis Applied to Affordability score Coming in October 2012 9 * Composite indicators are bolded.
Agenda Overview Methodology Overall results Results for India Website 10
Overall results Best environment Score 68.8 to 89.5 United States, Denmark, Norway, France, Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Canada, Finland, Germany, New Zealand, Belgium, Spain, Australia, Portugal, Japan, Sweden, Greece, Italy, United Kingdom, Republic of Korea, Israel, Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Chile, Slovakia Good environment Score 51.1 to 68.7 Saudi Arabia, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Malaysia, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Turkey, Serbia, China, Romania, South Africa, Venezuela, Panama, Belarus, Ukraine, Thailand, Bulgaria, Botswana, Peru, Paraguay, Tunisia, Colombia, Egypt, Kazakhstan Moderate environment Score 25.2 to 51.0 Jordan, Vietnam, El Salvador, Ecuador, Honduras, Morocco, Guatemala, Dominican Republic, Sri Lanka, Philippines, Indonesia, Bolivia, India, Azerbaijan, Ghana, Nicaragua, Syria, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Algeria, Cameroon, Pakistan, Cote d Ivoire, Kenya, Myanmar, Nepal Needs improvement Score 18.4 to 35.1 Nigeria, Bangladesh, Benin, Yemen, Tajikistan, Mali, Guinea, Angola, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Rwanda, Mozambique, Niger, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Zambia, Sudan, Togo, Malawi, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Haiti, Burundi, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo 11
Agenda Overview Methodology Overall results Results for India Website 12
India s overall performance Score / All country 100 average Rank / 105 Overall score 45 53.7 66 1) Affordability 38.4 52.3 70 2) Availability 51.3 53.8 52 3) Quality and Safety 44.2 56.5 73 India scores moderately in the overall index and across all three categories: Affordability, Availability, Quality and Safety. Of the three categories, India scores highest in food availability relative to affordability and quality and safety 13
South Asia: Regional Performance Relative to its peers in the region, India s high political stability is the primary driver of its first place rank in food availability within South Asia. However, the lack of a diverse diet and low protein quality constrain India s score in food quality and safety, placing India third out of the five South Asian countries. 50 40 30 20 10 0 Overall Score in Global Food Security Index 47.4 45 38.5 35.2 34.6 Sri Lanka India Pakistan Nepal Bangladesh India ranks second in food affordability among South Asian countries, owing to a moderate level of food expenditure and a strong presence of governmentsponsored food programs. However, compared with other South Asian countries, India applies high tariffs on agricultural imports, thus impacting both affordability and availability of food. 14
India: Affordability and Financial Access Indicator Score Rank Risk level Food consumption as a share of household expenditure 33.4 76 th Proportion of population under global poverty line 26.5 83 th Gross domestic product per capita 5.8 69 th Agricultural import tariffs 52.9 100 th Presence of food programs 75.0 =31 st Access to financing for farmers 75.0 =30 th 15
India: Affordability and Financial Access India and South Asia, in general, are vulnerable to food price shocks, resulting from a high incidence of poverty and food expenditure relative to other outlays. FOOD AS A SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE 70.8% Food consumption as a share of household expenditure averages 49.5% in India, versus an average of 52.3% in South Asia and just 20% in high income countries. 39.6% 47.6% 49.5% 53.8% 68.7 % of the population in India lives below the global poverty line. Despite this vulnerability, India has institutions dedicated to providing food safety net programs to protect the poor from food related shocks. Sri Lanka Pakistan India Bangladesh Nepal 16
India: Availability Indicator Score Rank Risk level Average food supply (kcal/person/day) 33.7 76 th Dependency on chronic food aid 50.0 =55 th Public expenditure on agricultural R&D 0 =65 th Agricultural infrastructure 50.9 =44 th Volatility of agricultural production 89.9 27 th Political stability risk 72.2 =20 th 17
India: Availability 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 GAP BETWEEN DIETARY ENERGY SUPPLY AND MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS The food supply in India averages 2,352 kcal/person/day; the FAO s minimum recommended intake is 1,780 kcal/person/day. 19% of India s population does not receive the minimum number of required calories for an average person, thus resulting in 224.6m undernourished people. 1500 1000 500 0 Brazil Russian Federation India China South Africa The undernourished in India consume, on average, 240 kcal below the minimum daily requirement, indicating that food deprivation in India is slightly less severe than in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Dietary Energy Supply (kcal/person/day) Minimum Dietary Energy Requirement (kcal/person/day) 18
India: Availability Expenditure on agricultural R&D is widely considered essential to improving productivity in the agricultural sector. However, the government spends just 1% of agricultural GDP on related research, placing India near the bottom of the 26 lower middle income countries in the index. PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON AGRICULTURAL R&D (PPP, 2005 DOLLARS) South Africa Indonesia While India's R&D public spending is low compared with the size of its agricultural sector, the country spends a large amount in PPP terms relative to other China Brazil 1306.3m emerging markets. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 India 272.3m 204.2m 1426.4m 3626.4m Poor infrastructure, in addition to low public expenditure on R&D, constrains India s score for food availability. While India faces challenges in food availability, low volatility of agricultural production and political stability are areas of strength. 19
India: Quality and Safety Indicator Score Rank Risk level Diet diversification 33.3 =76 th Government commitment to nutritional standards 100.0 =1 st Micronutrient availability 26.5 91 st Protein quality 15.4 =85 th Food safety 79.6 =67 th 20
India: Quality and Safety On average, the Indian population receives only 38% of dietary energy consumption from non starchy foods (all foods but cereals, tubers, and roots), owing to high consumption of rice, a staple of the Indian diet. Following rice, wheat is the second highest contributor to dietary energy consumption. DIET DIVERSIFICATION Starchy foods 62% Non Starchy foods 38% India s food quality and safety score is constrained by the availability of vitamin A and iron, which are below the world averages. The food supply in India also contains relatively low quantities of quality protein. SOUTH ASIA: PROTEIN QUALITY grams 1 Pakistan 47.4 2 Sri Lanka 37.9 3 India 36.9 3 Nepal 36.9 5 Bangladesh 33.8 On average, the greatest source of protein in India is from wheat, rice, and pulses. Based on this diet, the average person consumes 37 grams of quality protein a day, on par with the regional average of 38.6 grams. The average person in a low income country consumes 48.7 grams and in a high income country 101.7 grams. 21
India: Quality and Safety 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% ACCESS TO POTABLE WATER, 1990-2008 97% 96% 91% 89% 88% India's food safety has steadily improved by increasing access to potable water, creating an agency to ensure the safety and health of food, and expanding the presence of a formal grocery sector. 88% of India s population has access to potable water. This is above the 81% average of lower middle income countries. 75% 70% 65% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 Brazil China India Russian Federation South Africa While access to potable water in urban areas improved roughly 10% over the past two decades, in rural areas it improved 43%, leveling the playing field. 22
Agenda Overview Methodology Overall results Results for India Website 23
Next steps: Visit the Website for more information Visit http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com Here you can: Explore the drivers of food security Compare country and regional scores Find detailed country profiles Perform scenario analysis Watch the peer panel video Download the Findings and Methodology paper and deep dive Excel model 24
Contact information THANK YOU Questions or comments? Pat Thaker Director, Africa and Middle East and Asia/Pacific consultant Economist Intelligence Unit Email: PatThaker@eiu.com 25