From Warsaw to Lima and Paris: next steps in the international climate negotiations and EU action
Outline 1. International negotiations 1. Expectations and key outcomes in Warsaw 2. Road to Lima and Paris 2. EU Climate and Energy Framework 2030: The Commission's proposal p
EU expectations for Warsaw 1. Timeline and key elements of the 2015 Agreement 2. Options for deepening GHG cuts pre 2020 3. Implementation of previous decisions
Key outcomes (1): Progress on the 2015 Agreement Ambition: 2 degree objective/assessment phase Inclusiveness: domestic preparations "applicable to all" Fairness: nationally determined contributions/openness equity indicators in assessment phase Comprehensiveness: all elements of the Durban platform Urgency: contributions by Q1 2015/well in advance of Paris Legal form: without prejudice to the legal lnature of the contributions
Key outcomes (2): Enhancing pre 2020 ambition Some countries moved backwards domestically or internationally on Cancun/CPH pledges Formal technical process in 2014 to strengthen action through sharing of good practice June High level ministerial dialogue on ADP and ambition in parallel to Kyoto Ambition Mechanism Forum for Cities and Subnational Authorities Ongoingeffort to catalyze non UNFCCCprocesses processes, e.g. G20 (phase out of fossil fuel subsidies), Montreal Protocol (HFCs), UN post 2015 development process (including MDG/SDGs and Sustainable Energy For All Initiative)
Key outcomes (3): Climate finance A pathway and operational definitions for delivering on the Copenhagen USD 100 billion promise Biennial ministerial dialogues The EU has over delivered on fast start pledge: 7.34 billion 2010 2012 is delivering 5.5 billion for 2013; indicative contributions for 2014 are expected to be at least at the same level las in 2013 Launch capitalization of the Green Climate Fund in 2014 Adaptation fund pledges total US$ 100m (EU MS: 55m) REDD+: US, Norway, UK pledged US$ 280m
Key outcomes (4): Adaptation & Loss and Damage The Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage Enhance action and support to address loss and damage Improve knowledge and strengthen th coordination Institutional set up drawing on the existing Cancun Adaptation Framework Key challenge for Lima and Paris Clarifying adaptation needs and expectations as part of the 2015 Agreement
Key outcomes (5): Implementation Pre 2020 MRV regime finalised, incl for developing countries: Technical team of experts to analyse the reports Extension of the mandate of the Consultative Group of Experts to provide technical assistance in implementing reporting obligations REDD+ package completed, especially methodological aspects, finance and coordination of finance Near agreement on full set of Kyoto Protocol rules and accounting modalities for CP2, (but not formally adopted due to disagreement on paragraph related to Ukraine (application para. 3.7ter KP))
Road to Lima and Paris (1) Main challenges ahead Incentivising critical mass of ambitious and timely "intended contributions" EU working on 2030 climate and energy framework, offering assistance "Applicable to all": how to put "CBDRRC" into practice with regard to commitments and "rules" Adaptation: how to address under the 2015 Agreement? Climate finance: building confidence/managing i expectations Legal character of theagreement and "contributions"
Road to Lima and Paris (2): Opportunities for progress in 2014 Climate action by Parties, including intended nationally determined contributions Major Economies Forum essential to build on the convergence & generate momentum UNFCCC Ministerial i i meetings in June and December 2014 G20/G8 UN SG Ban Ki moon Leaders' Summit on 23 September 2014 first time Leaders will discuss climate since Copenhagen COP in 2009
Road to Lima and Paris (3): UN sessions in 2014 10 14 March Inter sessional meeting on the Durban Platform, Bonn 4 15 June Inter sessional meeting, Bonn (incl. Ministerial meetings) g) May "Ascent" Meeting in Abu Dhabi, 23 September Leaders' Summit, New York 1 to 12 Dec. 2014 COP/CMP: Lima, Peru
European Commission s 2030 framework for climate and energy: A key step in EU "domestic preparations"
EU's 2020 Framework for Climate and Energy (1): Where do we stand? Reduce energy Reduce energy consumption by 20%
EU's 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy (2): Europe's challenges & opportunities Renewable energy saw rapid cost decreases Technologies are gradually becoming competitive
EU's 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy (3): Why a new framework now? Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions cost effectively EU contribution 2015 agreement Competitive energy prices and new growth and jobs Security of energy supplies
Proposed 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy (4): The main components 2020 20 % Greenhouse Gas Emissions 20% Renewable Energy 20 % Energy Efficiency 40 % Greenhouse Gas Emissions Min 27 % 2030 New Key Indicators Renewable Energy Review 2014 New Governance system
1990-2012: EU successes in decoupling emissions from growth (5) 1990-2012: EU-28 GDP growth >44%, GHG emissions decreased by 21.4% EU-28 Emissions intensity (tonnes GHG/m produced) reduced by 43.9% (from 691 to 388) 2000-2011: EU energy intensity of industry and energy sector decreased by 1.5% each year 2030 climate and energy framework is to accelerate these trends, while realising further opportunities from lowemission development
Accelerating decoupling (6) Reductions vs 2005: ETS -43% Non ETS -30% Current EU oil and gas imports: 400 bn per year Shift from fuel expenditure to investments Fuel savings: may reap 18 bn fuel per year in next 2 decades; but requires additional investments of 38 billion per year next 2 decades Energy security: additional 11% cut in energy imports in 2030 Innovation: jobs & growth; EU eco-industry 4.2 million jobs now Health and air pollution benefits: 7-13.5 bn in 2030
EU long-term planning (7) 100% 100% 80% Power Sector 80% Current policy 60% Residential & Tertiary 60% Industry 40% 40% Transport 20% 20% Non CO 2 Agriculture 0% Non CO 2 Other Sectors 0% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Cost-efficient pathway to 80% domestic reductions in 2050 40% domestic reductions by 2030 Cut emissions i below 2t/per cap by 2050, down from current 7.5 t/per cap Improving the GHG intensity of EU economy by another 50% in the next two decades with 40% by 2030 target 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Population (million) 486 504 517 525 528 526 Assumed GDP growth rates p.a. 1,5% 1,6% 1,4% 1,4% Total GHG emissions (MtCO2e) 5684 5216 4847 4260 3379 1960 1146 Emission i intensity i (t of CO2/M 10) 487,2 394,0 299,0 202,7 102,3 52,22 Energy related CO2 em./cap 8,2 7,5 6,2 5,0 2,8 1,5 GHG em. Wrt. 1990 8% 15% 25% 41% 66% 80% Low carbon electricity 46% 49% 60% 73% 85% 94%
EU's 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy (8): Fixing the EU carbon market Large and persistent market imbalance (surplus >2 billion tonnes) Back-loading of auction volume only a first, temporary step Proposal to create a market stability reserve from 2021 onwards to make EU Emissions Trading System more resilient to demand d shocks After decision on 40% Greenhouse Gas Emissions reduction target: Increase linear reduction factor as of 2021 from 1.74 % to 2.2% to align the Emissions Trading System cap to agreed 2030 target Carbon leakage: Stable framework for this decade, continued but more focused free allocation after 2020
International Dimensions of the Commission's s Proposal (9) Designed and timed to set a high standard for transparency, accountability and ambition 40% headline GHG emissions reduction target domestic and unconditional Nonetheless reflects sensitivities of EU's energy intensive industries to international competitiveness concerns "Should the outcome of the [2015 Agreement] negotiations Should the outcome of the [2015 Agreement] negotiations warrant a more ambitious target for the Union, this additional effort could be balanced by allowing access to international credits"
Proposal for a 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy: An Ambitious and Achievable Contribution ti (10) Legally binding, economy-wide reduction target Long-term plan designed to reduce emissions by 80-95% from 1990 levels by 2050, consistent with a fair and effective EU contribution to the 2 degree objective Continue decoupling of EU economy from fossil fuel dependence: d keep growing economically while reducing GHG emissions per capita to 6 tonnes by 2030 and below 2 tonnes by 2050, further reducing EU level of CO 2 per unit of GDP, already a global standard of CO2 efficiency Need substantial transformation of key economic sectors Low carbon power generation: 49% in 2010 > 60% in 2020 > 73% in 2030 Transport White Paper: Indicative goal: 60% transport emissions cut by 2050 > require gradual transformation of the entire transport system Continue and further strengthen legislation/policies already cutting emission i innovation, i investment in new technologies, jobs and growth
EU's 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy: Next steps within the EU (11) 4/5 March: EU environment and energy ministers meetings 20/21 March: European Council (EU heads of state and government) European Parliament Energy Efficiency Directive: 2014 Review and proposals Emissions Trading System proposal: legal proposal, discussions with legislator started (Council and Parliament) Development/implementation of new governance structure Competitiveness and energy security indicators
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