Fresh Produce Marketing Trends and Issues for California Blueberry Growers by Dr. Roberta Cook University of California Davis Dept. of Agricultural and Resource Economics May 2003 UC Kearney Ag Center
Overview of Presentation US blueberry situation Production Trade Consumption Shipping seasons Marketing issues Consolidation Changing procurement patterns
N. American Production of Blueberries, Fresh and Processed, 1998-2002 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Source: US Highbush Blueberry Council 288,809 * In 1000 Pounds Lowbush Highbush 389,900 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 *Production problems in Quebec caused one year decline in lowbush
Blueberry Industry Snapshot Production was about 250 million pounds in 1991, including almost 150 million pounds for highbush In 2002 57% of production was highbush, vs. 64% in 1998 But 1998 was a low production year for lowbush (almost 50 million pounds <normal) Almost all lowbush is sold frozen/processed, but some diversion to fresh based on market conditions may occur Just under half of N. American production is sold on the fresh market
Blueberry Industry Snapshot 2003 and beyond N. American total production is projected to be around 450 million pounds (may be overly optimistic) California produced 800,000 lbs. in 2001 and 2 million in 2002, all fresh Ca. has a.9% share of the 2002 N. American highbush production volume; about a 2% share of fresh highbush production REMEMBER, THIS PUTS CA. IN A WEAK MARKET POSITION RELATIVE TO MOST OTHER CROPS WE GROW HERE
U.S. Highbush Blueberry Production (1000 lbs.), Change 98 to 02, and Selected State Shares 2002 State Shares % 98-02 State Production 02 98 % Change Michigan/Indiana 66,500 30 28 28 New Jersey 40,000 18 19 11 B. Columbia 34,000 15 18 0 Oregon 26,400 12 12 15 N. Carolina 15,500 7 8 9 Georgia 14,000 6 4 87 Washington 13,000 6 6 24 Others 13,800 7 4 79 Total 223,200 100 100 21 Source: US Highbush Blueberry Council
U.S. Fresh Blueberry Production Rankings, by Selected States FRESH VS. TOTAL PRODUCTION RANKINGS DIFFER State Ranking New Jersey 1 Michigan/Indiana 2 B. Columbia 3 N. Carolina 4 Oregon 5 Georgia 6 Washington 7 Mississippi 8 Florida 9 (production of 3.4 million pounds in 2001 and 2.1 in 2002) Source: US Highbush Blueberry Council
Blueberry Shipping Seasons California s May-June season overlaps with: Fla., April to mid-june N. Carolina, May 10-July 1 Georgia, May 25-July 10, but S. Georgia earlier Arkansas, May 20-July 10 New Jersey, June 10-Aug. 15 Mich./Indiana and Wash./Oregon come in June 25; Mich ends Sept. 10 and goes thru Oct. with CA ---------------------------------------- BC, July 15-Aug. 25 Chile, Nov. thru April Can Ca. also target a fall window? (some say yes, in the desert and the south coast)
Blueberry Pricing During California s May-June season: $16-18 for 4.4 oz. flats (3.5 lb. net carton weight) right now mid-may 2003 Next week when more S. Eastern volume comes on may be down to $12 May prices generally range between $10-20/flat Early June prices tend to be in the high teens for 9-10 lb. pint flats (box size increases as volumes increase) As New Jersey comes in prices often get down to $12 by the third week of June BUT, THESE PRICING LEVELS WILL DECLINE AS PRODUCTION GROWS!
Estimated 2003 Ca. Blueberry Area 818 commercial acres Additional area destined for Farmer s Markets by small growers (Ca. has over 300 Farmer s Markets) Total area likely to be around 1000 acres
Fresh Blueberries: U.S.Highbush Estimated Fresh Production and High and Lowbush Fresh Imports & Exports 120,000 Production Imports Exports Thousand Pounds 90,000 60,000 30,000 0 1998 2000 2002 Sources: DOC, USHBC Note: 90% of US exports go to Canada, 9% to Japan
Thousand Pounds Fresh Strawberries: U.S. Fresh Production and Fresh Imports & Exports 1,600,000 1,280,000 960,000 640,000 320,000 0 Production Imports Exports 1998 2000 2001 Source: USDA, ERS
Monthly US Imports of Fresh Blueberries by Country of Origin in 2002 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1000 Pounds 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 URUGUAY NEW ZEALAND NETHERLANDS CHILE CANADA ARGENTINA Source: US DOC
Selected Blueberry Trends in Seasons Competing with Ca. Central-North Florida: April 10 May 15 window Estimated additional 100+ acres of high density to be planted in next year or so South Georgia: April 15 May 15 window 2002 Estimated additional 400 acres of southern high bush was planted, 300 acres in high density High density 3-4000 plants/acre Regular density 1000+ plants/acre 2003 Some reluctance to continue planting due to the price/return outlook for the long run Projected 180,000 4.4 oz. flats in 2003, reaching 400,000 in 2006 Source: Industry Expert
US Per Capita Utilization of Fresh Strawberries and Blueberries E Pounds 6 Blueberries Strawberries 4 NA 2 0 98 99 00 01 2002.41 E Estimated Sources: USDA; Dr. Roberta Cook
US Per Capita Utilization of Fresh Pears, Table Grapes, Apples and Strawberries Pounds 24 22 20 18 Apples 16 14 12 10 Grapes 8 6 Strawberries 4 2 Pears 0 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 Source: USDA /ERS
US Per Capita Utilization of Cherries, by Product Form, 1977-2001 2.5 Pounds 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 Cherries, all Fresh Canning Freezing Source: ERS, USDA
Ave. Item Number in the Ave. US Fresh Produce Department 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Pma study: 574 SKU s in 2001 173 350 Number of items 1987 2001 Source: Supermarket Business, Oct. 1999 and Progressive Grocer Oct. 2002
Pounds per capita US PER CAPITA FRUIT CONSUMPTION, POUNDS 1977-2001 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 269 118 71 26 54 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Source: USDA/ERS, Oct. 2002 273 90 85 24 74 Processed Citrus Processed Noncitrus Fresh Citrus Fresh Noncitrus Total for 2001 reaches 279 including some berries and olives.
US Chains: Impact of Retail Consolidation on The Buying Process Multiple buying offices now merging into fewer or one Purchase from shipper without seeing the product More emphasis on standards, less on price Synergy contract buying More emphasis on forward planning Buy more directly from shippers Sources: PMA Fresh Track 2001; Cook and misc.
US Chains: Impact of Retail Consolidation on The Buying Process -Ahold ending Division buying, centralizing to 2 or 3 preferred suppliers chain wide -Safeway centralizing merchandising to Pleasanton, Ca. buying to Phoenix -Kroger consolidating divisions and centralizing buying to Cincinnati
Relationship selling. Fight for best position. Exploit seasonality. Retailer or Wholesaler Produce Business Model 1960 to mid-90s: Distribution-Based Strategy Commodity Approach Wholesaler 1 2 3 4 5... 100 Fax Machine Marketing Source: Adapted from The Perishables Group Uniform offers. Focus on food ads to boost short-term sales, respond to inventory issues.
New Produce Business Model, 1998 1 Key 2 Partner Suppliers Key Partner Key Partner Retailers know the value of ads, space, location, etc. Expect suppliers to know consumers: Right product Right stores Right time Right price New Strategy--Cover Both TRADITIONAL A RETAILERS Bid for orders. Buy ads, fight for space. Tactical approach. Source: Adapted from The Perishables Group NEW MODEL B RETAILERS Consumer Information. Category Expertise. Category Development.
Sales mechanisms for each marketing channel 1994 & 1999 - % Grapes, oranges, grapefruit and CA/FL tomatoes Sale Type Mass Mass All All Retail Retail Merch Merch 1994 1999 1994 1999 1994 1999 Daily Sales 72 58 57 43 20 7 Advance Sale 19 24 30 42 19 23 Sht-t. Contract 7 11 12 11 48 41 Lng-t. Contract 2 7 1 4 13 29 Source: Economic Research Service, Produce Marketing Study Interviews 1999-2000
Types of Fees & Services Requested Slotting EDI Volume Rebates Displays Non-volume Rebates Private Labels Promotional Ads Returnable Containers E-commerce fees Special Packs Capital Improvement Food Safety Certification
Fees are increasing for all fresh produce but commodities are still different Commodities No slotting fees Other fees well under 2 percent of sales Volume incentives, promotional allowances and rebates Fresh-Cut All fees approximately 1 to 8 percent of sales Slotting fees, promotional allowances, volume incentives, and rebates firms offer options Can cost up to $2 million to acquire the business of a national chain; $500,000/division: stimulating Private Labels
WHAT a DOLLAR SPENT for FOOD PAID FOR in 2001 in the USA Other costs - 4.0 Business taxes - 3.5 Repairs - 1.5 Interest - 2.5 Rent - 4.0 Depreciation 3.5 Advertising - 4.0 Pre-tax profits -4.5 Energy -3.5 Transportation - 4.0 Packaging - 8.0 Labor - 38 19 Farm value 19 Marketing bill 81 Source: Howard Elitzak ERS/USDA
Building Retail Partnerships Roles and Responsibilities Retailer/ Wholesaler Grower/Shipper Boards/Commissions Effective Tactics Shopper Savvy Loyalty Card Better Systems Results-driven Tracking Focus Dept. Profitability Strategic Approach Fact-based Selling Innovative Marketing/ Merchandising Efficient Practices Category vs. Item Perspective Category Development Best Practices Store-level Research Purchase Triggers Consumer Drivers Long view Source: Adapted from The Perishables Group
Conclusions While retailer buying power is increasing, partly expressed in new demands for fees and services, the huge physical volumes they now procure also make them even more dependent on shippers for stable, consistent yr-rd volumes This may limit the exercise of market power in the fresh produce sector
CONCLUSIONS: The Future? More and more, large year-round growershippers may become the sourcing entities for retailers, procuring volume above and beyond their own via geographic diversification, including imports. Smaller seasonal players will need to find niche markets. SELECT YOUR MARKETER WELL!!