Building resilience to extreme weather events Scott Vaughan Federal / Provincial / Territorial Deputy Ministers of Agriculture Fall Retreat October 29 th, 2014 Toronto, Ontario www.iisd.org 2014 The International Institute for Sustainable Development
The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) Independent, non-profit organization that undertakes policy analysis to help governments, institutions and companies make tangible advances in the development and implementation of policies that promote equity and a healthy planet Areas of focus: resilience, economic law and policy, energy, water and knowledge for integrated decisions Based in Canada with approximately 200 staff and associates, and offices in Winnipeg, Ottawa, Geneva, New York and Beijing
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Observations: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal and extremely likely due to human influence since the mid-20 th century Projections: Lowest pathway (RCP 2.6): Immediate and rapid GHG reductions = 1.5 2.0 C warming by 2100 Highest pathway (RCP 8.5): Similar to business as usual = more than 5.6 C by 2100 (some regions e.g. Arctic warming will be greater) Figure SPM.7a Global average surface temperature change (IPCC 2013)
Implications of a 4 o C World IPCC (2013): Figure SPM.8a,b: Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results All Figures IPCC 2013
US National Climate Assessment (in degrees Fahrenheit) Greater confidence in future climate projections. The IPCC s new climate model simulations (used in the US Assessment) show a wider range of potential changes in global average temperature as consider more options for future human behavior. Magnitude of temperature increase beyond the next few decades will primarily depend on levels of greenhouse gas emissions and sensitivity of the Earth s climate to those emissions. US National Climate Assessment, 2014
Observed changes in Canada 1. Temperature: 1.5ºC (1950-2010) Stronger warming in north and west Daily min temps rising faster than daily max Greatest warming in winter & spring 2. Precipitation: Wetter 16 % increase annual precipitation (1950-2010) Mostly in spring and fall Proportion falling as snow declining 3. Extremes: in hot, in cold Cold events (except southern Quebec and Atlantic), warm events (except parts of Prairies) No consistent change in extreme precipitation More severe drought conditions over southern and western Canada over second half of 20 th century 4. Changes increasingly affecting Canadians Outbreak of the Mountain Pine Beetle Spread of Lyme disease vectors
Projected changes in Canada Temperature: Warmer Greatest winter warming in northern Canada Greatest summer warming in southern Canada Precipitation: Wetter Less robust projections Increases for most of country and for all seasons (except southern Canada) Extremes: More frequent 1/20 year extreme hot days to become 1/5 by 2050 1/20 year extreme daily precipitation to 1/10 by 2050 Higher likelihood of drought in Prairies
Projected impacts in Canada Permafrost: Thawing Snow cover: Decreased spatial coverage and duration Glaciers: Wastage, retreat Freshwater ice: Thinner, less coverage, earlier break-up, later freeze-up Sea ice: Decline in extent Freshwater availability: Mixed; tendency to summer runoff, winter runoff Oceans: Warmer, more acidic Natural environment: shifting species range, invasive species, risk of species loss Sea ice coverage in 1980 (bottom) vs. 2012 (top); NASA
Adaptation Progress in Canada Greater acceptance of the need to adapt to a changing climate, particularly in weather dependent sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, hydroelectricity) Increase in planning for adaptation but relatively few examples of specific changes being implemented Adaptation can sometimes turn risks into opportunities; potential benefits most evident in agriculture and tourism sectors Adaptation requires collaboration across sectors, levels of government, and between government, industry and non-governmental groups 2014 Update Report: Canada in a Changing Climate http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/environment/impacts-adaptation
Potential Impacts: Central Canada spring runoff, spring precipitation and heavy rainfall events greater potential for flooding impacts for (e.g.) manure management and soil erosion summer temperatures and evaporation variable implications for crop production: Maple syrup: production moving northwards and sap flow starting earlier in the year Corn and Soybeans: extend into new regions Potential in pests, diseases and weeds
Economic consequences: Climate extremes in eastern Canada Orchard production: Early blooming followed by deep freeze resulted in 82% loss of production. Economic loss: $60-million for Ontario farmers; $350 to $400 million with indirect losses Drought in eastern Ontario: significant impacts on corn growers and cattle producers. Federal payments to livestock sector: about $41.35 million
Flooding on the Canadian Prairies
2014 Floods in Saskatchewan and Manitoba At least 1.6 million hectares of farmland flooded In Manitoba, affected 25% of arable acres Costs still being calculated but estimated to be more than a billion dollars
Driver of flood vulnerability: Poor watershed management Smith Creek (1958) Drainage and Wetland Smith Creek (2000) Drainage and Wetland
Smith Creek Basin study Findings: Drainage between 1958 and 2008 increased the 2011 flood peak by 32% and the 2011 yearly stream flow by 29% Even greater impact on flows in normal and dry years: with complete drainage of existing wetlands, stream flow volumes increased 200% to 300% Conclusion: wetland drainage significant factor in downstream flooding and vulnerability to drought conditions
Addressing (multiple) shocks and stresses by building resilience Climate not the only change leading to losses and harm Speed, scale & complexity of changes overwhelm capacities to respond In context of uncertainty, strengthen capacities of systems to cope, adapt and reorganise Resilience: System property with dynamic attributes Flexibility, diversity and redundancy: Systems better able to withstand and adjust to anticipated and unanticipated changes Transparency, inclusiveness, equity: Risks, and resources to address them, distributed in a more balanced way Learning and innovation: Don t repeat past mistakes, find new ways to maintain and transform a system
Building resilience Attribute Flexibility, diversity, redundancy Transparency, inclusiveness, equity Learning and innovation Example Multiple use crops Diversification of crops, markets Spare capacity (e.g. more drivers), alternative options (e.g. road) and substitutions for getting grain to port Information and communication tools Safety net programs Valuing and integrating indigenous knowledge Continued research on drought-resilient crop and livestock varieties Regional planning platforms to exchange knowledge Scheduled policy reviews and re-adjustments
Building resilience through ecosystem management Improved wetlands management E.g. Manitoba s Surface Water Management Strategy and proposed Sustainable Drainage Regulations Other beneficial management practices to improve soil health and build on-farm resilience
Building resilience using information & tools Improve access to critical information: Seasonal forecasts Climate projections to inform long-term investment decisions (e.g. roads, irrigation infrastructure) Improve access to knowledge, tools, networks and communities of practice
Adaptive Design and Assessment Policy Tool What is it? Policy assessment tool that answers the questions: Are existing (or new) policies supporting anticipated adaptation needs? Are the policies adaptive themselves? Who is it for? Policy analysts and policy makers within government and the private sector What is the output? Helps mainstream awareness and consideration of climate adaptation in policy processes Promotes policies that perform well under complex and uncertain conditions 20
Multi-province analysis British Columbia: 18 policies related to agriculture and fisheries Saskatchewan: 25-year Water Security Plan; and 9 mining policies Manitoba: 3 Forestry policies, 1 new wetland policy; 6 mining policies Nova Scotia: 3 protected areas, water and wastewater management policies
Key messages 1. Need to move from planning to implementation Strengthen ecosystem management Increase access to information needed to support decision making 2. Resilience building must happen throughout the system i.e. not just at production level Need to look along entire supply / value chain Look at issues ranging from transport to trade policy 3. Resilience is also about taking advantage of opportunities Climate change may mean some real opportunities for agriculture in Canada; we need to be prepared to identify and maximise these opportunities
Thank you International Institute for Sustainable Development Head Office 161 Portage Avenue East, 6 th Floor, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3B 0Y4 Tel: +1(204)958-7700 Fax: +1(204) 958-7710 Website: www.iisd.org www.iisd.org 2014 The International Institute for Sustainable Development