The Outlook for Energy a view to 23 Rob Gardner International Energy Forum 15 May 21 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil s latest report on Form 1-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
Importance of Energy 2
Your Energy Use EU MENA North America Sub-Saharan Africa Direct 24, Energy BTUs Use per day Vehicle Indirect Energy Use Industry Household Personal Commercial Transport Public Buildings Asia Pacific 3
Our Key Energy Challenges Reducing poverty and improving living standards Supporting economic growth Minimizing impacts on the environment Maintaining energy security Development of reliable and affordable energy plus ongoing efficiency gains are essential to meeting these challenges... 4
Challenge: Meeting Basic Needs Electricity Modern Cooking/Heating Fuels Available Available ~1.5 Billion People with no Electricity ~ 2.5 Billion People with no Modern Cooking/Heating Fuels 26 World Bank 5
Global Economics and Energy Population GDP Energy Demand Billion 1 8 Average Growth / Yr. 25 23.9% Trillion 25$ 1 Average Growth / Yr. 25 23 2.7% 8 7 Average Growth / Yr. 25 23 6 1.2% 5 6 6 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 198 25 23 198 25 23 198 25 23 1 MBDOE = ~2 6
MENA Economics and Energy Population GDP Energy Demand Billion.5.4 Average Growth / Yr. 25 23 1.5% Trillion 25$ 3 Average Growth / Yr. 25 23 3.8% 6 Average Growth / Yr. 25 23 2.6% 5.3.2 2 1 4 3 2.1 1. 198 25 23 198 25 23 198 25 23 1 MBDOE = ~2 7
Growing Global Demand By Sector 3 25 23 23 2 25 1 Transportation Industrial Res/Comm PowerGen Energy Savings 1 MBDOE = ~2 8
Global Transportation Demand By Sector MBDOE 7 Personal vs. Commercial MBDOE 25 6 Rail 2 5 Marine 4 3 Aviation Heavy Duty Vehicles Commercial 15 1 25 23 2 1 Light Duty Vehicles Personal 5 OECD Non OECD 198 25 23 Personal Commercial 9
Personal Vehicle Fleet is Growing Vehicle Penetration Cars and Population (millions) Fleet by Car Type Million Cars 125 US 25 Advanced US 23 Cars 1 Diesel Europe OECD 25 Population 75 Europe OECD 23 5 Gasoline China 25 25 China 23 5 1 15 2 215 23 1
Improving Today s Vehicle Engine % MPG Improvement Aero - Turbo Dynamics Charging Transmission Cylinder Deactivation Light Weight Materials Body & Accessories Camless Valves Improved Tires Total 1 2 3 4 Percent Percent 6 Speed / 7 Speed Continuously A/C Variable Efficiency 11
Light Duty Vehicle Technology Electric Vehicle % Efficiency Improvement Well to Wheels Gasoline Equiv. Plug-in Hybrid Assumptions 21 23 Plug-in Hybrid vs. Conventional Vehicles $k 2 Plug-in Hybrid (PHV) Full-Hybrid & HCCI Conventional Technology Battery cost, $/kwh 8 3 Battery replacements over the vehicle life, # Electricity cost, /kwh 5 5 15 1 5 21 23 $2 / gallon gasoline $4 / gallon gasoline 25 5 75 1 Percent Additional Cost Annual Savings Annual Savings 12
Light Duty Vehicles Advanced Cars* Percent of New Sales 5 Average New Car MPG 5 4 3 Europe OECD US China India 4 3 Europe OECD India China 2 2 US 1 1 2 215 23 2 215 23 *Full Hybrids, HCCI, PHV, EV 13
Heavy Duty Vehicles Intensity BOE / 25$ k GDP.4 By Region MBDOE 25.3 Non OECD 2 15 Non OECD.2 1.1 OECD 5 OECD. 198 25 23 198 25 23 14
Global Industrial Demand By Sector 12 23 By Region Fuel 25 1 8 6 25 2 15 Electricity/ Heat Biomass Coal Non OECD 4 1 Gas 2 5 OECD Oil Heavy Ind Chem Energy Ind Other 198 25 23 1 MBDOE = ~2 15
MENA Industrial Demand By Sector 1 8 Industrial Intensity Million BTU / 1 US$ 8 6 Heavy Industry Chemical Energy Industry Use OECD Industrial 6 4 23 25 4 2 2 Heavy Ind Chem Energy Ind Other 198 25 23 1 MBDOE = ~2 16
Residential / Commercial Demand By Sector 1 23 Residential Billion Households 3 Residential Global Demand Energy Use MBTU Quadrillion / Household BTUs 15 7 25 6 8 25 23 6 2 5 1 4 Electricity/ Heat Solar 4 Non OECD 3 Biomass 1 5 2 Coal 2 Residential Commercial OECD 198 25 23 1 Gas Oil 198 OECD 25 Non OECD 23 17
Electricity Use is Growing Fast By Sector k TWhr 3 By Region Generation k TWhr 3 Transportation 2 Other Industry Heavy Industry 2 Other Gas Other AP Coal China 1 Commercial Residential 198 25 23 1 Other Oil AP Nuclear Europe 4% Renewables US 198 25 23 18
Electricity Generation Cost US Baseload, Startup 225 29 Cents/kWhr 2 15 $6 $3 No per CO2 Ton Cost CO2 1 5 Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Coal + CCS Gas + CCS Solar 19
MENA Power Generation Electricity by Sector By Fuel By Region k TWhr 2. 2 2 Other 1.5 Other Industrial 15 15 North Africa Heavy Industry 1. Commercial 1 Gas 1.5 5 5 Residential Oil Middle East. 198 25 23 198 25 23 198 25 23 1 MBDOE = ~2 2
Power Generation Fuel Demand United States 12 Europe OECD 12 Asia Pacific 12 1 1 1 8 8 8 6 6 6 Coal 4 4 4 Gas 2 198 25 23 2 198 25 23 2 Nuclear Oil Renewables 198 25 23 21
Global Energy Demand and Supply By Sector By Fuel 7 7 6 5 Res/Comm 6 5 Wind, Solar, Biofuels Hydro, Geo Biomass Nuclear 4 Industrial 4 Coal 3 Transportation 3 Gas 2 2 1 Power Generation 1 Oil 198 25 23 198 25 23 1 MBDOE = ~2 22
MENA Energy Demand By Sector By Fuel By Region 6 6 6 5 4 Res/Comm 5 4 Other 5 4 North Africa 3 Industrial 3 Gas 3 2 Transportation 2 2 1 1 1 Middle East Power Generation 198 25 23 Oil 198 25 23 198 25 23 1 MBDOE = ~2 23
Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand Trillion 25$ GDP 6 GDP 4 Demand OECD 3 3 2 1 198 25 23 198 25 23 Trillion 25$ GDP 6 4 3 3 2 Non OECD 198 25 23 1 198 25 23 24
Global Energy Demand and Supply Demand and Supply 25 23 3 3 Non OECD 2.8% 23 25 1.8% 16 OECD.5% 1.5% 2.3% Non OECD 2.2% 9.6% Oil Coal Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro, Geo Wind, Solar, Biofuels Total Energy Growth Energy Savings 1 MBDOE = ~2 25
Global Liquids Supply Grows Global Liquids Supply and Demand MBDOE 12 23 9 Liquids Demand ~37 OPEC Non-OPEC ~34 6 3 OPEC Crude ~27 ~28 Biofuels Other Petroleum Canada Oil Sands 25 Supplies Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate 198 199 2 21 22 23 Base/Adds 26
Gas Supply and Demand Balance United States BCFD Europe BCFD Asia Pacific BCFD BCMD 12 12 12 3.4 9 9 9 6 Pipeline LNG Imports 6 6 1.7 Unconventional 3 3 3 Conventional 2 215 23 2 215 23 2 215 23 LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas 1 BCMD = ~35 BCFD 27
Global Energy Demand & CO 2 Emissions Demand 7 6 5 Average Growth / Yr. 25-23 1.2% Other CO 2 Emissions Billion Tons 4 3 Average Growth / Yr. 25-23.9% Res/Comm Gas 4 3 2 1 Gas Oil Coal 2 1 Transportation Oil Industrial Power Generation Coal 198 25 23 198 25 23 1 MBDOE = ~2 28
CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions Billion Tons 4 Emissions per Capita Tons / Person 12 25 Emissions per GDP Tons / 25$ k GDP 2. 1 3 8 23 1.5 2 Non OECD 6 1. 4 1.5 OECD 2 198 25 23. OECD Non OECD OECD Non OECD 29
Transition to Modern Energy / Technology US Energy Demand Percent 1% Canals Personal Vehicles Passenger Flights Hybrid Vehicle 75% Railways & Steamships Rail Freight Road Freight Deepwater & Arctic 5% Coal Mining Electrification Shale Gas Air Conditioning & Oil Sands 25% Wood & Coal Heating Telegraph Oil Prod & Refining Telephone Natural Gas in Homes Nuclear Power Wind Cell Phones & PCs % 185 19 195 2 Wood Coal Hydro Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables Energy Information Agency 3
Integrated Energy Solutions 6.7 billion people Now Increase 23 Efficiency Increase Efficiency 8 billion people Global economic linkages Disparate living standards Enormous energy needs Technology Expand Supply Non OECD leads economic growth Less poverty; living standards improve Global energy needs up one-third Environmental gains & concerns Mitigate Emissions Growing technology use & focus Mitigate Emission s Progress on environmental goals Expand Supply Significant advances in technology 31
32