Oppenheimer 16 th Annual Consumer Conference

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Transcription:

Oppenheimer 16 th Annual Consumer Conference

Safe Harbor This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may include, but are not limited to, the outlook for the second quarter and fiscal 2016, future financial and operating results and projections, projected store openings, timing and terms of potential acquisitions, the company s plans, objectives, expectations and intentions, and other statements that are not historical facts. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of GameStop s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. GameStop undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. The following factors, among others, could cause actual results to differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements: the inability to obtain sufficient quantities of product to meet consumer demand, including console hardware and accessories; the timing of release and consumer demand for new and pre-owned video game titles; changes in the timing and terms of potential acquisitions of two AT&T resellers for which we expect to use proceeds from the recent debt offering and the possibility that we will not be able to enter into an acquisition agreement for one of these acquisitions or complete either of the acquisitions on the terms assumed, or at all; our ability to continue to expand, and successfully open and operate new stores for, our collectibles and tech brands businesses; risks associated with achievement of anticipated financial and operating results from acquisitions; our ability to sustain and grow our console digital video game sales; the risks associated with international operations, wireless industry partnerships and operations and the completion and integration of acquisitions; increased competition and changing technology in the video game industry, including browser and mobile games and digital distribution of console games, and the impact of that competition and those changes on physical video game sales; and economic, regulatory and other events, including litigation, that could reduce or impact consumer demand or affect the company s business. Additional factors that could cause GameStop s results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements can be found in GameStop s Annual Report on Form 10-K, as amended, for the fiscal year ended Jan. 30, 2016 filed with the SEC and available at the SEC s Internet site at http://www.sec.gov or http://investor.gamestop.com. 2

GME is a Global Specialty Retailer We re a global family of specialty retail brands that makes the most popular technologies affordable and simple 200+ 2016: $8B 2016: >$1B 2016: $.85B 2016: $.5B 3

Key Takeaways We added a new $1 Billion run rate business OUTSIDE our GameStop branded stores: TECHNOLOGY BRANDS We added TWO $1 BILLION CATEGORIES INSIDE our GameStop stores Digital: We have built a sustainable $1 Billion business Collectibles: We are on our way to a $1 Billion business PHYSICAL VIDEO GAMING is a solid business, and one with a long tail GME is a diversified and growing company 4

Transformation to Date % of Total Operating Earnings 2010 2015 2016E 2019E 10% 25% 30% 50% 50% 90% 75% 70% Physical Video Game Earnings Non-Physical Gaming Earnings Goal: 50%+ of earnings from businesses beyond physical games by 2019. Project +3-5% earnings growth CAGR through 2019. 5

Four Year Roadmap 2016E Total Operating Earnings 2019E Total Operating Earnings 12 14% 6 7% 25-30% 65 70% 12 13% 45-50% 13-17% 12-14% $685 to $715M Tech Brands Collectibles Digital Physical $730 to $800M Tech Brands Collectibles Digital Physical 6

GameStop Transferable Competencies Deep Real Estate Knowledge Landlord relationships Portfolio management Rapid growth experience GameStop Digital Tech Brands Collectibles Store Ops Management/ Omni-channel Hiring & Training Multi-unit management Customer Loyalty Program PowerUp Rewards 46mm members worldwide Buy Sell Trade Model Sophisticated inventory management Large scale refurbishment Secondhand dealer compliance Provides unique customer value Capital Deployment Ability to deploy capital in ways that increase shareholder value 7

Technology Brands Largest AT&T Authorized Retailer with >900 stores Complementary to AT&T corporate stores Long-term exclusive agreement with AT&T America s Largest Wireless Dealer Prepaid wireless dealer with 70 stores Aggressive growth concept for Cricket Long-term dealer agreement with Cricket America s Largest Apple Specialist Largest Apple premier partner with 76 stores Complementary to Apple corporate stores Long-term dealer agreement with Apple 8

Primary Sources of Revenue Selling Products at Retail Selling New Service / Additional Lines, etc. Receiving SMF (Subscriber Management Fees) Based on New Customer Subscriptions 35% 65% Margin Rate 65% 100% Margin Rate 100% Margin Rate Success measured by Traffic growth and Gross Profit Comp $ growth 9

Projected Technology Brands Operating Earnings Growth $250 $200 $200+ $150 $100 $50 $0 In millions $28.5 $85-$100 2015 2016E 2019E Tech Brands Operating Earnings * Per Store CAGR 5% traffic 5% Gross Profit dollars 28% IRR Increase productivity in acquired locations by 30-40% Store count: 1,036 1,500 1,600 1,900 2,000 *Includes the targeted AT&T acquisitions 10

More Than Just Wireless AT&T believes that the future of mobile is integrated solutions WIRELESS ENTERTAINMENT $200+B Smartphones DirecTV & U-verse $250+B Tablets HSI & Landline $500+B Digital Life Wearables IoT Connected Car CONNECTED LIFE Power Protection Personalization ACCESSORIES $80+B Telecom services spending is expected to grow 13% over the next four years 11

Transforming Inside the Store GameStop s Four Wall Profits Are Healthy and Growing Average Store Contribution per Global Video Game Store $190 to $200 $176 $143** Flat category GME gained +4 share points In thousands 2013 2015 2019E Growth driven by: Digital, Collectibles, PowerUp Rewards & Omni-channel ** shown in constant currency 12

Collectibles is a Large and Growing Category Narrowly defined, Collectibles is an $11 Billion industry in the U.S., nearly as large as the physical video games category Estimated U.S. Collectibles Market Growth GME: 2019 Projected Sales of $1 Billion $16B $11B $1,000 $75 $310 $450 to $500 2014 2015 2016E 2019E 2015 2019E $1 Billion = Only 4% Share Lots of room for growth Collectibles should exceed $16 BILLION by 2019 Source: The Licensing Letter; GameStop internal growth estimates 13

Top collectible product types Top collectible product types in 2015 $ billions Example products Toys and games 34%, $3.7b Apparel 13%, $1.4b Consumer electronics 12%, $1.3b Home 12%, $1.3b Accessories 10%, $1.1b Other 20%, $2.2b Source: The Licensing Letter, internal estimates, consultants 14

Video Games: Digital GameStop Digital has Quickly Grown to $1 Billion Our digital growth is in-line with the top 4 publishers $1,054m $290m 2010 2015 15

Video Games: Console Digital U.S. Console Digital Market: Mix by Segment Console Digital Sales 2015 % of Total Market Share GME Participation Subscriptions / Micro-transactions $1,203M 41% ~25% Market Share Leader Indie + Catalogue Console Digital $1,063M 36% <5% GameTrust, Dedicated Sections Downloadable content / DLC $392M 13% ~40% Market Share Leader Console FGD: AAA* $283M 10% <5% Dedicated Sections, Publisher Agreements Total Console Digital $2,941 100% Note: Sales of digital products in physical stores are included in Digital (eg: XB Live cards) * new release priced at $60: DFC 16

Why Consumers Buy Digital at GameStop Earn reward points Retail stores close to me Can trade games towards digital Prefer not to store credit card online Buying as a gift Source: PUR consumer survey 2016 17

Video Games: Digital Digital Sales Penetration of Other Forms of Media PS4/Xbox One Video Game E-Book Album Movie Digital Penetration 20% 25-30% ~50% 40-45% Average Retail $59.99 $9.00 $9.99 $9.99 to $14.99 Residual Value $20 $0 $0 $0 Average Download Speed 11 hours @ 10 mbps 2 seconds @ 10 mbps 10-15 seconds @ 10 mbps One hour @ 10 mbps Gaming Barriers: Residual value File size Download speed / limits Average Size 40 GB < 1 MB 4 MB 3 to 4.5 GB Books, Music and Movies are all <50% digital, despite small file sizes and no residual value Source: Amazon, Apple, Barnes & Noble and IFPI (The International Federation of the Phonographic Industry). 18

Opportunities for Industry Growth $16 $14 $12 $13.1 Estimated U.S. Addressable Market $13.6 $10 $8 $6 $6.9 $7.5 $4 $2.7 $2 $0 In billions SuperData IDG NX 120% of Wii U NX 1/2 of Wii 2015 U.S. VG Category (HW, SW, Accessories) Virtual reality potential (2016-2018) Nintendo NX potential (2017-2019) Sources: NPD, SuperData, IDG, DFC Intelligence, GameStop Internal Models; First 26 months U.S. only 19

2016 Projected Cash Flow Use Sources $400 (a) to $500M of FCF $475M of debt (a) $560M Cash Flow from Operating Activities less $160M Capital Expenditures $670M Cash Flow from Operating Activities less $170M Capital Expenditures $400 2016E Uses of Cash (in Millions) TBD $155 $75 to $125 $160 to $170M of Capital Expenditures ~$115M Video Game Brands $25 to $30M $20 to $25M ThinkGeek Technology Brands Targeted AT&T acquisitions M&A Dividend Share Repurchase 20